Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 291111
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
611 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH WEDNESDAY

LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AM THANKS TO
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 80KT JET STREAK. THIS FEATURE WILL
DEPART CWA BY MID MORNING...WITH LITTLE QPF ANTICIPATED.
OTHERWISE...DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT RESPONSIBLE FOR ELEVATED SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN COUNTIES THIS AM. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE
SHOWERS/STORMS WEST RIVER TODAY AS THE UPPER TROF PROPAGATES
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY...ON NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...STRATUS
EXTENDS WELL INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO WARM AT
ALL THANKS TO LACK OF HEATING AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF LIFTS OUT OF NEBRASKA EARLY TUESDAY.
ANY SUN WILL RESULT IN MIXING STRONG SOUTHEAST FLOW DOWN TO THE
SURFACE...WITH THE NAM PEGGING MIXED DOWN WINDS BETWEEN 20-40KTS.
NAM ALSO SUGGEST A NARROW RIBBON OF 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE
WITHIN THE STRONG SPEED SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL HEIGHTEN
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE JAMES VALLEY AND POINTS EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A DRY SLOT FOLLOWS AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...WHICH WILL END PRECIP FOR MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST. FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH
COOLER TEMPS. WARMER AIR WILL WORK BACK INTO AREA SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL FORECAST LOOKS MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND LIFT INTO
THE MAINLY MVFR RANGE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER...BECOMING
MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING WITH THUNDER POSSIBLE NR KPIR AFT
00Z.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...SCARLETT
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...SCARLETT
AVIATION...SCARLETT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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