Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 270815

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
315 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

The short term portion of the forecast will feature dry conditions
with near to above normal temperatures. An upper level trough
currently over the Northern Great Lakes will sink southward today
bringing breezy northwesterly winds to the eastern CWA. Under sunny
skies, high temperatures should warm into the upper 60s in NE South
Dakota, to the lower 80s in western SD. The upper level trough
should be located over southeastern Lake Michigan later tonight with
low stratus possible as far west as eastern SD. The stratus will
certainly limit the potential for frost tonight.

High temperatures on Wednesday will be cooler than previously
expected. A back-door cold front will push across the region as
Canadian high pressure builds in from the north. With 925 mb temps
around normal for this time of year, have lowered high temperatures
a few degrees for most of the CWA. The surface high will slide into
northern Minnesota tonight with southerly winds developing over the
Dakotas. The southerly winds will bring warmer temps back into the
region for Thursday with highs in the 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Monday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

No noteworthy changes in tonight`s 00Z GSM solutions. Still looks
dry under high pressure influence as the period opens. Then by early
next week, the precipitation chances start to ramp up as shortwave
energy within a western CONUS longwave trof aims for the northern
plains. Longer range low level thermal progs also indicate some
potential for seeing growing season ending cold air moving down
across the northern plains by the middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

VFR conditions will prevail across the area through Tuesday


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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