Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 120312 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
912 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Issued at 911 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

The current forecast is on track, therefore no changes made at
this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

There continues to be some light snow activity across the CWA,
mainly from south of MBG to south of ABR. Everything is moving south-
southeast and will see this come to an end over the next couple
hours. Further upstream, daytime heating has led to pockets of
stratocumulus with embedded flurries or very light snow showers.
Will see this activity drift south over the next couple hours as
well, before we lose heating. It`s possible some of this could drift
into the northern CWA so will have to keep an eye on this.

Otherwise, for tonight we will see cold air advection develop once
again as surface high pressure builds in. 925mb temps fall to around
-20C by Monday morning. Overnight lows are tricky once again due to
varying cloud cover across the CWA at different times in the night.
Wind will be light but not completely calm. It does look like
everyone will fall below zero, with northern areas of the CWA near
10 below zero. Wind chills overnight stay just out of criteria so no
need for headlines. Cold temperatures will be had on Monday with the
cold surface high moving from the Dakotas into MN. Should see some
cloud cover which will prevent temps from climbing much. Look for
highs in the single digits to low teens.

Will also be watching the weak system moving into western SD by
Monday morning. Models continue to vary quite a bit on areal
coverage of snow, with some being quite scant with precip. Overall
it appears the snow accums will remain on the light side, but decent
chances for sure over the western CWA. East of the Missouri, we run
into much drier air which will be hard to support any snowfall - at
least during the daylight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

The recent long wave pattern looks like it`s up for a bit of a shift
during the period. Southeast mid level ridge will eventually lead to
more energy digging south along the west coast of the conus. This
will probably lead to a positive tilt long wave trof across the
western conus into the Northern Plains. But before those changes
take affect, we`ll have a couple systems to deal with. The first
waves of energy move through Monday night and Tuesday. Soundings
indicate a light pcpn event expected as lift doesn`t look too
impressive. For now the event looks to feature mostly snow but there
is an outside chance for light fzdz Tuesday morning after we lose
the saturated ice crystal layer. For now have followed adjacent
offices and am keeping the pcpn type as all snow. For Tuesday night
and Wednesday, a milder airmass is expected to advect off the High
Plains, and across the forecast area. Westerly flow just off the
surface should lead to that warmth being able to mix down.  Only
catch will be relatively new snow across parts of the forecast area,
especially south central CWA. Have trended those areas with more
snow on the ground down just a touch.  Next arctic front comes
racing through the area on Thursday, with temperatures likely to
fall after early morning highs.  It also appears the CAA associated
with the influx of arctic air will likely squeeze out some flurries
and light snow.  No major accumulations expected, but there could be
some associated blowing snow during snow showers.

For the rest of the period, including next weekend, temperatures
should favor near to perhaps a bit above normal and the upper level
pattern starts to re-organize itself.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday Evening)
Issued at 527 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

Other than a short period of MVFR cigs across the southeastern
part of the area early this evening, VFR conditions will prevail
across the area tonight and through the day Monday.




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