Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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144
FXUS63 KABR 271116 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
616 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

SFC LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER KS WITH INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH-
NORTHWEST INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. RAINFALL CONTINUES TO STREAM
NORTHWEST OUT OF NE/IA AND ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD AND UP THROUGH THE
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY. THE NORTHEAST CWA HAS BEEN LARGELY DRY ALL
NIGHT...WHICH IS A TREND THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS. MODELS CONTINUE TO DELAY THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES AND BACK OFF ON QPF. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND
GFS WERE THE FIRST ONES TO REALLY BEGIN TO SHOW THIS DRYING TREND
ALONG AND NORTH OF HWY 12 ACROSS NORTHEAST SD AND WEST CENTRAL MN.
THE 00Z EC SHOWS THIS TO SOME EXTENT AS WELL. BUT WHAT HAS BEEN MORE
CONVINCING IS EVEN THE MOST RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR HAVE NOW LATCHED
ON TO THIS TREND AS WELL. ASIDE FROM SOME ISO/WDLY SCT LIGHT SHOWERS
THROUGH THE MORNING...IT DOES NOT REALLY BRING THE SWATH OF RAINFALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CWA UNTIL THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HAVE CUT BACK ON
POPS AND QPF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL TRENDS.
STILL EXPECTING THE MAJORITY OF THE RAIN TO SPREAD NORTHWEST ACROSS
THE MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES TOTAL RAINFALL...PERHAPS EVEN HIGHER IN SPOTS.
EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL BECOME
RATHER BREEZY AND GUSTY IN THE COTEAU REGION DOWN THROUGH WATERTOWN.
SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY TODAY AND IN FACT...MODELS
SHOW 925/850MB TEMPS DROPPING A BIT THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE ACTUALLY SHOWS FALLING TEMPS FOR SOME LOCATIONS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER CENTRAL SD WHERE TEMPS MAY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 30S LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS THE LOW
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. COLDER AIR
WILL WRAP INTO THE SYSTEM AND WILL LIKELY SEE RAIN BEGIN TO MIX WITH
OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FOR MANY LOCATIONS. ACCUMS WILL REMAIN ON THE
LIGHT SIDE...BUT WEST RIVER LOCATIONS COULD SEE AROUND AN INCH.

BY 12Z THURSDAY THE SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO BE OVER IA...WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION OVER THE CWA. THE LOW WILL SHIFT
EAST THROUGH THE DAY SO LOOK FOR DECREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION...LEADING TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BY THURSDAY
EVENING. FRIDAY IS LOOKING MOSTLY DRY AS WELL...AND WARMER WITH
HIGHS IN THE 50S. ALTHOUGH...WILL ALREADY BE WATCHING THE ARRIVAL OF
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE ACTIVE SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE REGION DURING THE LONG TERM. ANOTHER TROF/LOW WILL BE LIFTING
NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ONCE AGAIN
PCPN IS EXPECTED TO WRAP NORTH INTO THE CWA THIS WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH
THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE MAY SEE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS ACCORDING
TO MODEL DATA. THAT SYSTEM GETS SHOVED EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS
ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGY DIVES INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ARE SKETCHY AT BEST CONSIDERING MODEL DIFFERENCES
AT THAT TIME SCALE.  TEMPERATURES WILL FAVOR BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
WEEKEND...BUT THEN SHOULD TREND TOWARD NORMAL BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY AT KPIR/KMBG WHICH
WILL SUPPORT A MIX OF IFR/MVFR CIGS. KABR/KATY WILL SEE MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING AND A BIT MORE COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON. CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TO MOSTLY MVFR/VFR AT BOTH
KATY AND KABR.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK



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