Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 022022
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
322 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS PRODUCING ISO/SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A
PORTION OF THE AREA. HI-RES MODELS...INCLUDING THE HOPWRF...SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE SITUATION FAIRLY WELL. CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING PRIOR TO SUNSET. MOST OF
THE REGION WILL SEE DRY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER A WEAK COLD
FRONT SLIDING ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND PEAK HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM FOR LOCATIONS EAST OF THE I-29
CORRIDOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE REGION ON
SATURDAY. WHILE THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...MODELS ARE NOT GENERATING A LOT OF
CONVECTION. VERY DRY AIR BETWEEN 700-500 MB COULD BE THE REASON FOR
LITTLE QPF. A 30 T0 40 KNOT LLJ DEVELOPS SATURDAY NIGHT...ALONG WITH
SOME GOOD MID LEVEL MOISTURE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SCT
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE LONG TERM WILL FEATURE A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS.  THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD/SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/ WILL CONSIST OF AN ADVANCING
SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY A HEAD OF A MID LEVEL TROF SWINGING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.  THERE WILL BE COPIOUS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY A
HEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL UNTIL YOU GET WELL BEHIND THE FRONT.  NONETHELESS
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING LOOK LIKE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
ANY SVR WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM.  MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY SHOULD BE
MAINLY DRY UNDER INFLUENCE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE.  MORE THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ENTER THE PICTURE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD AS RETURN FLOW SETS
UP AND LLM RETURNS TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  TEMPERATURES OVERALL
WILL BE NEAR OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 108 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYTIME HEATING
HOURS...BUT OVERNIGHT SHOULD DIE OFF. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED EXCEPT LATE TNT WHEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...TDK


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