Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 222139
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
339 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING...WHICH WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS FAIRLY MILD. FORECASTING
LOWS TRICKY THIS EVENING AS AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND MIXING WILL
GREATLY AFFECT READINGS. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP OVERNIGHT...AND DEPENDING ON TEMPS IT WILL
BE EITHER RAIN OR SNOW. GENERALLY WENT WITH 20/30 POPS TONIGHT.
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY AND THE RATHER GUSTY WINDS THAT
WILL DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. DECIDED TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE MISSOURI VALLEY
REGION BASED ON FORECAST WIND SPEEDS...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. WILL ALSO LEAVE IN THE MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW
SHOWERS AS THE SHORTWAVE AXIS MOVES THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MAIN CHALLENGE FOR MED/LONG TERM FCST REVOLVES AROUND PCPN
TIMING...LOCATION AND MODEL DIFFERENCES.

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH 500HPA TROF LOCATED ALONG THE
ERN DAKOTAS AT 00Z MONDAY. SFC LOW LOCATED WELL SOUTHEAST OF
CWA...BUT WRAPAROUND ON BACKSIDE...COUPLED WITH TIGHTENING SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT...COULD MAKE FOR SOME TOUGH CONDITIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT IN LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR THE FAR NE
PART OF THE CWA. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR POTENTIAL HEADLINES.

SYSTEM PULLS AWAY DURING THE DAY MONDAY...WITH DIMISHING WINDS AND
SNOWFALL MOVING WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

BIGGEST QUESTION IS GOING TO BE WEATHER TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GFS IS NOT NEARLY AS STRONG WITH SFC LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS ON SAGGING COLD FRONT...WHILE THE EC SPINS
UP A FAIRLY POTENT SFC LOW DIVING SE. THE NAM AT 84 HOURS OFFERS
UP A SOLN THAT IS CLOSER TO THE GFS...WITH A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK
OF THE SFC LOW. THIS KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN IN NORTH DAKOTA THAN
IN SOUTH DAKOTA. THIS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED AS EC SOLN
WOULD CREATE SOME ISSUES...AGAIN IN THAT FAR NERN CWA
REGION...WITH LIGHT SNOW AND STRONG NW WINDS.

LASTLY...FOR THANKSGIVING...THE GFS KEEPS CANADIAN HIGH BOTTLED UP
IN SRN CANADA...WHICH ALLOWS SFC LOW TO DEVELOP ALONG STALLED COLD
FRONT DRAPED WEST-EAST ACROSS THE CWA. THE EC PUSHES THIS HIGH
MUCH FURTHER SOUTH. DIFFERENCE IS GFS SOLN SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR
MEASUREABLE SNOW THURSDAY...WHILE EC NOT SO MUCH. FOR NOW WILL
CONTINUE WITH SUPERBLEND SOLN.

TEMP WISE...LOOK FOR SUBSEASONAL TEMPS TO AGAIN PUSH INTO THE
REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WITH LITTLE IF ANY RECOVERY
NOTED.

&&

.AVIATION...

18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY VFR EXPECTED...BUT THERE IS A
THREAT FOR FG/BR ACROSS KATY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME BUT
WILL EXAMINE AGAIN AT 00Z ISSUANCE AND MAY NEED TO INSERT MENTION
IN TAF.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM CST /8 AM MST/ TO 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/
     SUNDAY FOR CAMPBELL-CORSON-DEWEY-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-POTTER-
     STANLEY-SULLY-WALWORTH.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...HINTZ
AVIATION...TMT

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN





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