Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 210545 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

06z aviation discussion updated below.

UPDATE Issued at 929 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

No changes planned to the tonight period forecast.

UPDATE Issued at 630 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 331 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

Numerous CU developed this afternoon across the central and eastern
CWA. Expect to see these diminish after sunset...with high clouds
moving in from the west overnight. The low level jet develops to the
west of the area tonight...so while there may be a small chance for
a shower to develop...have opted to leave the mention out thinking
it will be west of the CWA. Will see some reduction in the winds
tonight...then expect them to pick up again on Saturday as the
gradient begins to tighten up. The breezy to windy conditions will
continue into the day Sunday ahead of an approaching frontal
boundary...with little in the way of precipitation expected until
Sunday. Concern turns to the potential for strong to severe storms
with the passage of the front. In addition to the front...looking
at a 45 to 55 knot low level jet developing...around 1000 J/KG of
most unstable cape...and 40 to 50 knots of shear. Only concern is
that the shear looks like it will trail behind the front...but the
other factors will be in place with the frontal passage. SPC
currently has all but the far eastern CWA in a slight risk...so it
is looking like a decent chance for strong to possible severe
thunderstorms developing late Sunday afternoon across the
west...then spreading eastward during the evening and overnight
hours.

Strong southerly winds will keep warm air streaming up into the
region...with highs in the mid to upper 70s on Saturday and in the
upper 70s to lower 80s on Sunday. Overnight lows will be mainly in
the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 331 PM CDT FRI MAY 20 2016

While models agree fairly well with the evolution of the upper
level flow pattern through the period...they differ on timing and
intensity of shortwave activity. The pattern will consist of a deep
trough over the western US with ridging over the East Coast.
This will leave the Northern Plains under southwest flow aloft with
multiple shortwaves affecting the area. Because of this...there is a
chance for showers and thunderstorms in nearly every period in the
extended. Temperatures through the period should be slightly above
normal. That said...cloud cover could limit highs from reaching
their full potential on a few select days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday Night)
Issued at 1245 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

Prevailing vfr conditions can be expected for for the kabr, katy and
kmbg terminals tonight and saturday. kpir, on the other hand, could
be bouncing in and out of mvfr cigs late tonight through saturday
morning before mixing/daytime heating on saturday will have an
opportunity to lift cloud bases up into vfr range. look for the
gustiness at kpir, kmbg, kabr and katy to return on saturday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr



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