Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 132354 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
654 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE THE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE A BIT
PROBLEMATIC AS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOWS TO FALL INTO THE
FROST CATEGORY. WILL FORGO THE MENTION OF FROST TONIGHT FOR TWO
REASONS. THE FIRST REASON IS WINDS. WEAK PRESSURE RISES BEHIND A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SHOULD
KEEP THE ENVIRONMENT WELL MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE SECOND
REASON IS THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD COVER. AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK
OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD HANG TOGETHER AND FILTER INTO THIS
CWA LATER TONIGHT...KEEPING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH THE REST
OF THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE HIGH OVER HEAD ON SUNDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN ORGINALLY EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

EXITING SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE START OF THE PERIOD DRY.
THE REAL STORY OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE THE WARM TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE 70S TO 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AS AN UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTS OVER THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME THOUGH
A SERIES OF SFC LOWS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS. MODELS
ARE DIVERGENT ON EXACTLY WHEN AND WHERE THEY EXPECT PRECIP WITH
THESE SYSTEMS SO KEPT ALLBLEND SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THU
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

LOW PRESSURE TROF AT THE SFC CONTINUES TO TREK EWD ACROSS THE ABR
AND PIR TERMINALS AT 00Z ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH AND BECOME
MORE WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY. LOW TO MID LVL CLOUDS ADVECTING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING WILL AFFECT THE NORTHERNMOST
TERMINALS FIRST AND ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN DECKS BUT ANY CIGS WILL REMAIN VFR.
NORTHWEST WINDS MAY INCREASE FOR A TIME INTO THE EVENING BEHIND
THE TROF BEFORE SETTLING DOWN LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...VIPOND
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...VIPOND

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




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