Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 272049

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The models were in good agreement with the track of the large upper
level low pressure system moving out of the southwest U.S. and into
the Central Plains through the short term. The models did all show
slightly different solutions on how much rainfall they wanted to
spread into our region through this time period. Best indications
for rainfall later tonight into Wednesday look to be west of the
Missouri River and areas south of Pierre. Northeast SD and west
central MN don`t look favorable for rain. The superblend chances did
not change much from the previous forecast. Otherwise, the setup
tonight and early Tuesday looks favorable for more fog formation
mainly along the James Valley and east. The winds will be light
southeast with high rh along with mostly clear skies. The light rain
chances will leave the southeast CWA Wednesday night. Highs the next
few days should be mostly in the 50s across the CWA along with winds
generally under 15 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 349 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

The upper level split flow pattern will continue through a better
portion of the long term. The period begins with one storm system
crossing the central plains with another diving southward along the
Rockies. The second system will have some northern stream jet
support with PCPN possible in western portion of the CWA Friday
night through Saturday. Models disagree with pcpn chances early next
week. The Canadian and ECMWF brings pcpn into the region on Monday,
while the GFS keeps pcpn further south. Based on the current weather
pattern, Monday could end up being dry. Temperatures through the
period will remain above normal with highs in the 50s and 60s, with
lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Prevailing VFR conditions can be expected for all terminals through
the valid TAF period. However there is a low probability for
Patchy fog developing Tuesday morning along and east of the James
River. If fog develops, it should impact the terminals of KABR
and KATY.




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