Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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201
FXUS63 KABR 160533 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Current forecast looks good with no changes expected.

UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Another cool night with light northwest flow, and a weak ridge axis
moving into the area that will allow winds to shift slightly to the
southwest. Same as last night, none of the CAMs come up with fog,
and with the westerly wind component and todays mixing have opted
for only a limited mention. For Monday, looks like another good
mixing day with a southwesterly low level wind component as the
surface ridge moves east. Favorable mixing and 850mb temperatures
to +12 to +14C supports highs around upper 60s to mid 70s. Profile
winds are less than 30kts so breezy to windy much like today.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Oct 15 2017

Above average temperatures and dry conditions will dominate the
extended period. Increased high temp from SuperBlend on Tuesday as
mixing increases ahead of a front and H85 temps climb to around
+16C. Even MOS guidance, which relies heavily on climatology, is
putting temps in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will
increase with diurnal heating this afternoon (gusts into the upper
teens and lower 20s knots) and ahead of a weak surface trough.
The surface trough will cross the area late this afternoon and
shift winds to the west.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...SRF/Mohr



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