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000
FXUS63 KABR 111210
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
710 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
SHALLOW PATCHY FOG SHOWING UP ON A FEW WEBCAMS LIKE MELLETTE AND OUT
THE WINDOW EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SEEMS TO BE FORMING IN AREAS
THAT PICKED UP VERY LIGHT RAINFALL LAST NIGHT...AND WHERE WINDS
HAVE RECENTLY GONE CALM. INSERTED PATCHY FOG INTO THE GRIDS FOR A
FEW HOURS THIS MORNING...SHOULD FULLY DISSIPATE BY 9AM OR SO AS
SOLAR INSOLATION/VERTICAL MIXING INCREASES.

FOWLE

&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SUNDAY

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE AREA TODAY. H85 TEMPERATURES RANGE
FROM +5 TO +9C...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 20S/LOW 30S...SO
ANOTHER DAY A TAD ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE WISE. NAM WATERTOWN
PROFILES MIX UPWARDS OF 6KFT BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD...SO POTENTIALLY SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS IN FAR EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...WHICH HAS RAISED FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR YET ANOTHER DAY.

ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM MOVES OVERHEAD TONIGHT. A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL
JET FORMS IN RESPONSE...THOUGH NO CAPE IS BEING GENERATED...SO
WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF CHANCE SHOWERS. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
AT TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE RESULT IS NORTHWEST FLOW
INTENSIFYING SATURDAY...WITH A DELAY IN THE ONSET OF COLD
ADVECTION. WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS...ABNORMALLY WARM
TEMPERATURES...AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS...FIRE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS A BIT MORE CONCERNING.

WE ALSO SEE A SHORTWAVE MOVE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY SUNDAY WITH A BAND OF WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT PUSHING
PRECIPITATION INTO THE CWA. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
UNDERCUT THE MOISTURE...LIMITING THE NORTHWARDS EXTEND OF POPS.
PROFILES SUPPORT RAIN TO START...TAPERING TO SNOW NEAR THE END OF
THE EVENT...WHICH WILL LIMIT ANY ACCUMULATIONS.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: MODERATE

SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVER
THE ROCKIES. MOST PROMINENT PV ANOMALY APPEARS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ON DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY. 00Z SUITE OF
DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ONLY MODEST UPPER LEVEL
ASCENT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SATURATION TO PRODUCE LIGHT QPF. BEST
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN...OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO
THE FAR NERN CWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...CANADIAN SFC HIGH
DROPS SWD RESULTING IN DRY BUT COOL CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY. H8
TEMPS REMAIN IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS...YIELDING HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO 40S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FORECASTER CONFIDENCE: LOW

POOR MODEL AGREEMENT NEXT WED/THU WILL RESULT IN A LOW CONFIDENCE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST. 00Z ECMWF/GEM INDICATE A DECENT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS IS DRY. LATEST 00Z
ECMWF HAS ALSO TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SYSTEM FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY...AND NOW KEEPS MUCH OF THE AREA DRY. ALL IN
ALL...CONTINUED THE TREND OF USING A CONSENSUS APPROACH WHICH DOES
YEILD AT LEAST LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME. TEMPERATURES MIDWEEK ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL AS H8 TEMPS REMAIN ABOUT 1 STD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL. SOME
OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND EVEN COLDER...BUT DUE TO
TIMING DISCREPANCIES WILL ONLY MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS POINT.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME WESTERLY BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT MORE E/SELY BY EVENING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SFC LOW. IN ADDITION...A STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ERN SD EARLY TONIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AFTER ABOUT 02Z AT KABR AND KATY. ALTHOUGH CIGS
ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN AOA 5K FEET AGL DUE TO A LAYER OF
DRY AIR NEAR THE SFC...BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS AND LOWER CIGS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER OR MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS.
CLEARING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR ON EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...FOWLE
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN