Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 262037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Scattered showers and storms have brought some decent rainfall
mainly to areas along and in the James Valley from this morning into
the afternoon. The clouds and rain with this have also kept
temperatures in check across this region. Several outflow boundaries
along with a frontal zone extending across our northwest cwa and
across southern nd and upper level short wave lift have been
responsible for this convection. Despite all of the convection, there
is still plenty of deep instability across the region along with
decent wind shear west and south in our region. Thus, with the
frontal boundary to our north sinking south through the region
tonight and Wednesday along with some upper short waves moving over,
expect showers and storms to continue in the east with new shower
and storm development farther west. Thus, will continue with high
pops across the region tonight into Wednesday afternoon.

Surface high pressure and drier air will then push into the region
for Wednesday night and Thursday as Canadian air moves in. Thursday
should be mainly a mostly sunny day with dry conditions. Both
Wednesday and Thursday should have below normal temperatures with
highs in the mid 70s to the lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

The long term portion of the forecast begins with a surface high
pressure over the region with northwesterly flow aloft. The high
pressure will keep most of the CWA dry through Friday afternoon. A
surface low pressure system and upper level shortwave will slowly
cross the region Friday afternoon through Sunday morning with
several rounds of storms possible. With limited temperature
advection and partly cloudy skies, temperatures through the first
half of the extended will average below normal. Upper level ridging
and WAA will develop on Sunday with temperatures climbing above
normal for most locations. Warmer temps are expected Monday and


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

An area of low pressure crossing the region will being showers and
thunderstorms to all terminals through this evening. Some
thunderstorms could be strong with torrential rainfall and small
hail possible. Brief periods of MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible
with the stronger storms. MVFR cigs will be possible Wednesday
morning behind the low pressure system.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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