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000
FXUS63 KABR 080537 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1137 PM CST SAT DEC 7 2013

.UPDATE...
MADE A COUPLE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE LOW TEMP FORECAST TO DROP
TEMPS A FEW MORE DEGREES...GIVEN READINGS OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS AND THE TIMING OF CLOUDS WORKING UP FROM THE SOUTH. THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES MAY SEE A FEW MORE DEGREES OF TEMPERATURE
FALL OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 6 HOURS. BUT...BY AND LARGE...TEMPERATURES
ARE PROBABLY ABOUT AS COLD AS THEY ARE GOING TO GET RIGHT NOW
ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE CWA WITH LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION
SETTING UP ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL WORKING UP
FROM NEBRASKA. UPDATES ARE OUT.

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY...AND BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL
SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT ARE THE FORECAST CHALLENGES.

THE ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE THAT BROUGHT RECORD TO NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH BITTER COLD WIND CHILL VALUES IS FINALLY
RETREATING NORTHWARD. THIS IS BECAUSE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE IS APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS
SYSTEM IS ALREADY SPREADING MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE CWA
ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK THIS EVENING TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET
UPON SUNSET. HOWEVER INCREASING WAA FROM THE SOUTH WILL SPREAD
INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
CLIMB BY SUNRISE.

WHILE THE MAJORITY OF THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND
INVERTED SURFACE LOW WILL PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS CWA...THERE
IS ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO RESULT IN
LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR MOST LOCATIONS ON SUNDAY. SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES SEEMS POSSIBLE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN CWA WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS OF
15 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE. WHILE NOT REAL STRONG...PATCHY BLOWING SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE SNOWFALL ON SUNDAY WILL HAVE A HIGH SLR.

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH THE REGION. BUFFER SOUNDINGS IN THE EASTERN CWA ARE
SHOWING A MEAN WIND OF 30 KNOTS...WITH PEAK WIND GUSTS OVER 40
KNOTS POSSIBLE WHICH WILL LIKELY CAUSE BLOWING SNOW PROBLEMS. OF
COURSE THIS IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON
SUNDAY...AND WHETHER OR NOT SNOW OCCURS WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM AS
WELL.


.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXTENDED OPENS WITH A TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION. KEPT
THE PERIOD ALL DRY...BUT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ON TUESDAY AND MINOR
CAA COULD SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME FLURRIES OR LOW QPF SNOW
SHOWERS. PINPOINTING A PARTICULAR AREA OF CONCERN WOULD BE
DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME HOWEVER. ANOTHER TROF CLIPS THE NORTHEAST
CORNER OF THE CWA ON WEDNESDAY BUT ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN OVER
ND AND MN. BY SATURDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ONCE AGAIN.

THE TROUGHS WILL HELP TO MIX UP THE ATMOSPHERE AND MODERATE TEMPS
A BIT. HOWEVER THE PERIODIC COLD AIR REPLACEMENT BEHIND THE TROFS
AND WITH THE SURGES OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP TEMPS WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.


&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

THERE ARE SOME SCT-BKN VFR CIGS OF APPX 3000FT TO 6000FT AGL
ACROSS THE CWA. BKN-OVC CIGS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR. VISBIES SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL
LIGHT SNOW BEGINS WORKING INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
EXPECTING VISBIES IN LIGHT SNOW TO DROP TO AS LOW AS 1SM AT
KPIR...KABR AND KATY THROUGH LATE SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN