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000
FXUS63 KABR 110239 AAB
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
939 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
LATEST MODEL RUNS COMING IN CONTINUE TO SHIFT THE POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW SOUTHWARD A BIT. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
POPS...WEATHER GRIDS...AND FORECAST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS TO SHIFT
THE HIGHER AMOUNTS MORE TO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. NO CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES OR WINDS AT THIS TIME.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST IS BY FAR THE MOST CHALLENGING.
SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION
TNT INTO TUESDAY WILL BRING INITIALLY RAIN AND THEN SNOW TO THE
CWA. A LOT OF GUIDANCE SUCH AS CARIBOU/BUFKIT SUGGEST SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH DUE TO RELATIVELY MILD SFC
TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER STRONG UVM PER FRONTOGENESIS/OMEGA PROS
SUGGEST THERE COULD BE A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE
CWA. HOWEVER MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN PARTICULARLY CONSISTENT THE LAST
COUPLE DAYS...MAKING FORECAST DIFFICULT. PLUS THE CHANGEOVER TO
ALL SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT OCCUR UNTIL POST MIDNIGHT...OR EVEN
CLOSER TO 12Z FOR SOME SOUTHERN LOCALES. SO...DETERMINING SNOW
AMOUNT ITS QUITE DIFFICULT. DECIDED TO STICK WITH WWD FORECAST
SINCE IT DOES SEEM TO BE A NICE BLEND OF THE LATEST MODELS. BUT
FUTURE HI RES MODEL DATA SUCH AS THE HRRR/RAP WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED FOR ANY MESOSCALE SNOW BAND POTENTIAL. FOR NOW WILL ONLY
PUT CORSON/DEWEY IN AN ADVISORY GIVEN THE FORECAST OF UP TO 3 OR
SO INCHES FOR THAT AREA. UVM DOES APPEAR TO FRAGMENT/WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES ESE ACROSS CWA LATE TNT AND TUESDAY MORNING SO FOR NOW HAVE
NOT INCLUDED ANY COUNTIES FURTHER EAST IN ADVISORY THINKING SNOW
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS.

ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM PV ANOMALY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE
EASTERN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THEN THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS
PRETTY MUCH DRY AS S/W RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OFF SOME FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE RETURNING TO ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN THURSDAY.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST. WEAK UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH
OF OUR CWA AT THIS POINT. ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED
TO DROP THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW ON SATURDAY. THIS WAVE LOOKS TO
BRING BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW TO OUR CWA. OVERALL
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING AROUND
KMBG IN THE 03Z-06Z TIME FRAME...AND THE REST OF THE TAF SITES
BETWEEN 06Z-09Z. PRECIPITATION WILL INITIALLY BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SNOW. GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS
FORECAST...HOWEVER THE POSSIBILITY FOR A HEAVIER BAND OF SNOW TO
SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA DOES EXIST.
CIGS AND VSBYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR/MVFR WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF A HEAVIER BAND
DEVELOPS. THE SYSTEM IS FAST MOVING...SO CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
BY AROUND MIDDAY TUESDAY.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM MDT
     TUESDAY FOR CORSON-DEWEY.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$
UPDATE...PARKIN
SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SERR
AVIATION...PARKIN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN