Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 260829

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
329 AM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

An upper level shortwave and surface trough will push east of the
region this morning, leaving behind mostly cloudy skies for most of
the CWA. Patchy fog, along with drizzle has been observed this
morning. These conditions should continue through the morning
commute. Drier air will gradually push across the region from west
to east through the day. With locations along and east of the James
River valley likely seeing cloudy skies through this afternoon, have
lowered highs a few degrees.

Upper level ridging will build into the region later tonight through
Thursday. This ridge will bring dry conditions to the region. A
surface low pressure and upper level shortwave crossing southern
Canada will break down the ridge on Friday. Winds will shift to the
northwest and become gusty behind this system. While CAA will
develop Friday afternoon, temperatures should still reach the 60s
and 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 327 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

The mid level flow will be nearly zonal across the area when the
period begins. A weak shortwave will track across the Northern
Plains on Saturday, with a stronger wave moving through on Monday.

At the surface, low pressure will track across the Central Plains
early in the period, bringing a chance for precipitation to the CWA
late Friday night and Saturday. High pressure then swings through,
with dry conditions expected Saturday night through the day Sunday.
Another low pressure system then approaches the region early next
week. The GFS is weaker, but further south with the low, and
therefore brings a better chance for precipitation to the CWA than
the ECMWF. For now, will lean toward the wetter solution and keep
small pop in Sunday night through the day Monday. Dry conditions
return under high pressure on Tuesday.

Saturday will be the coolest day of the period, with highs in the
upper 40s to mid 50s. 50s to lower 60s will be common through the
rest of the period. Overnight lows will be mainly in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1228 AM CDT WED OCT 26 2016

Cigs are expected to hang in for most of the night, and probably
lower some at KABR/KATY.  Improvement is expected Wednesday morning.
For KPIR/KMBG fog is expected to form overnight as the clouds
dissipate. Some of that fog/cigs will lower to IFR/MVFR until mid
morning on Wednesday, with improvement thereafter.




LONG TERM...Parkin
AVIATION...Parkin is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.