Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 290902
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
402 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE FIRST SURFACE TROUGH AND INITIAL AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS HAS
EXITED THE CWA...HOWEVER THE MORE DEFINED COLD FRONT/PRESSURE
BUBBLE /AS INDICATED BY MSAS 3 HR PRESSURE RISES AROUND 7 MB/ IS
NOW DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS FEATURE IS
ACCOMPANIED BY A PRETTY DECENT AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS...WITH A FEW
UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING MODERATE RAIN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS SHOULD
SLIDE FROM THE NORTHWEST CWA ACROSS TO THE EASTERN CWA THIS
MORNING. ONLY EXPECTING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH OF
PRECIPITATION...HOWEVER...ENOUGH TO KEEP RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE ALONG AND EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NO DOUBT...SO FIRE DANGER
WILL BE VERY HIGH...BUT DID NOT FEEL EXTREME CONDITIONS EXISTED
TODAY...AND CANCELED THE WATCH. CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO KEEP AN
EYE ON HOWEVER. THE WIND WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES PERSIST AS
ORIGINALLY FORECAST.

BEYOND TODAY THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WARM. FIRE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S AND 70S...AND
COMBINED WITH A 20 TO 25 MPH NORTHWEST WIND...CONDITIONS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO RAPID FIRE GROWTH...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PIERRE AREA
WHERE MIN RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE LOW 20S. EVEN WARMER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT SOUTHERLY WINDS LOOK TO
REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE LONG TERM LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE CWA AS NO SIGNIFICANT
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OR SURFACE FRONTS COME THROUGH WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE WITH THEM. THE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER
RIDGING SLIDING OVER OUR REGION TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WHILE A PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES EAST NORTHEAST
AND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
SHORT WAVE WILL BRING A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY/WINDY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. WEDNESDAYS
TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT INTO THE 60S. FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING TEMPERATURES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S FOR
BOTH DAYS. IT LOOKS LIKE WITH THE LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WARMER PACIFIC FLOW IS EXPECTED
ACROSS OUR REGION WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY BACK INTO
THE MID 50S AND LOWER 60S. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF THESE
TEMPERATURES WERE RAISED EVEN MORE IN LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF
PERIODS OF MVFR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE RAIN. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE INTO THE 25 TO 40 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 50
KNOTS LATE TONIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TO MID
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM CDT /10 AM MDT/ THIS MORNING FOR
     SDZ003-004-009-015-016-033>035-045-048.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SDZ007-008-011-019>023.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR SDZ005-006-010-017-
     018-036-037-051.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ039-046.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR






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