Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 221917
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
217 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Main forecast challenge for the very short range will be temps. For
tnt am expecting another cool one, with winds likely to go light and
variable from the James Valley east into west central Minnesota.
This should allow for lows colder than most guidance, including
inherited grids. Meanwhile, return flow out west will likely limit
the fall late tnt, albeit winds are gonna be light. We should see a
bit of a warm up on Wednesday as southerly breezes return to the
forecast area. Euro and Canadian progs remain a bit cooler than
GFS/NAM. For now feel the NCEP models are probably handing the
situation a bit better and will stick to the higher end guidance
since favoring warmer than office blend or most model guidance has
worked well this summer so far. That said, there has been some green
up, and mixing may be a bit limited so didn`t get too carried away
with highs for Wednesday.  A thin ribbon of moisture/instability may
infiltrate the south central part of SD late Wednesday, but for now
thunder chances look minimal given lack of any decent lift.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

The period begins with a surface high pressure building across
Minnesota. This high pressure, along with northwesterly flow aloft
will bring dry conditions to the area. By Thursday night, the high
pressure will shift east of the region with increasing southerly
winds developing over the western Dakotas. The winds will bring LLM
northward with dew points reaching the lower 60s on Friday. The LLM,
along with a warm front lifting northward will set the stage for
thunderstorm development by Friday afternoon. Based on expected cape
values exceeding 1K J/KG, marginally strong to perhaps severe storms
are possible. However 0-6 km bulk shear values are lacking. The
surface low and upper level trough will progress eastward through
Sunday morning. At this time, eastern SD and western MN will have
the best potential of seeing strong storms. Dry conditions are
expected through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Tue Aug 22 2017

Vfr conditions are expected at all terminals through the entire
valid period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...TDK



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