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000
FXUS63 KABR 130525 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

Starting to see severe convection get going across the southwest
CWA, which caught some sun this morning/early afternoon and is the
most favorable area of severe storms to develop. SPC Mesoanalysis
page shows 1000-1500 J/KG of ML CAPE and 40 KTS of bulk shear in
this region. The distinct upper level short wave should provide
plenty of forcing, although CAMS have been relatively unreliable
with how the whole system plays out this evening. Most do show this
current convection sliding east, with another complex dropping out
of North Dakota and across the CWA later this evening. Expect storms
to weaken quickly has they move into a more stable environment east
of the James River Valley.

The  low pressure system responsible for all the shower and
thunderstorm activity will linger into Sunday morning with
precipitation chances across the eastern CWA through a good chunk
of the afternoon. May also see some lower clouds and fog develop
across parts of north central South Dakota early Sunday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2017

The period begins with a weak upper level ridge crossing the region
with dry conditions expected. By Monday night, an upper level trough
and surface frontal boundary will begin crossing the region. This
trough will slowly progress eastward through Wednesday night with
several chances for showers and thunderstorms. The combination of
high PWATS and slow storm motion will likely cause moderate to heavy
rainfall. Another upper level trough will cross the region some time
between Thursday afternoon and Friday night. With timing
disagreement among models, will maintain superblend`s low pops.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Sun Aug 13 2017

Vfr conditions will get replaced with a mix of ifr/mvfr cigs late
tonight and toward morning. Any thunderstorms may cause mvfr or
even ifr cigs/vsbys for a short time. The lower mvfr cigs should
gradually improve during the morning and afternoon on Sunday.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Serr
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Wise