Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 311544 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1044 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

AN AREA OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND JUST TO THE EAST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER...WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT ACCUMS EXPECTED ALTHOUGH THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS APPEAR TO BE OVER THE SULLY/STANLEY/HYDE AREA
CURRENTLY. MODELS STILL SUGGEST SHOWERS WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS
THEY MOVE EAST. ADJUSTED POPS/CLOUD COVER ACCORDINGLY. ALL OTHER
FIELDS SEEM TO PROGRESSING WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH AN AREA OF LIGHT SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL ND TO NORTHWEST SD.
ACTIVITY CONTINUES PUSHING EAST AND IS NOW MOVING INTO CORSON
COUNTY. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE EXPECTED EASTWARD MOVEMENT INTO THE CWA. WILL CONTINUE WITH
THE MENTION OF SHOWERS TODAY AS THIS WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES THROUGH.
TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL TODAY...BUT SHOULD BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW ON SATURDAY JUST GIVEN THE OVERALL
INCREASE IN TEMPS AT 925/850MB.

FOR MONDAY...WARMER TEMPS BEGIN CREEPING BACK INTO THE AREA ALONG
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS. ALTHOUGH THE BEST MOISTURE RETURN IS OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL SD AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY
AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY RESIDES.

TUESDAY IS LOOKING LIKE THE BEST SETUP IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR
POTENTIALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPS BY AFTERNOON WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF
BULK SHEAR AS WELL. SFC LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER WESTERN SD WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTING UP AS WELL. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS WILL
INITIATE OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL SD AND MOVE EAST INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AIDED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP OVER THE EASTERN CWA ON TUESDAY AND LOOKING AT
PRETTY BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS SETTING UP. ONE OF THESE SCENARIOS
FOR STRONGER WINDS IN THE JAMES VALLEY/EASTERN SD WITH SFC WINDS AND
850MB WINDS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH. 850MB WIND SPEEDS FLIRT WITH
40 KNOTS AS WELL. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED WIND SPEEDS TUESDAY
AFTERNOON ON TOP OF WHAT GUIDANCE WAS GIVING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PARKED OVER THE
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST NEAR THE
SFC OVER THE DAKOTAS. SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WILL
BE FREQUENT. THEREFORE HAVE BROAD BRUSHED POPS FOR EVERY PERIOD WITH
SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTORMS.

TWO PERIODS STAND OUT...TUESDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ON TUESDAY
NIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH
A 35 TO 45 KT LLJ AHEAD OF IT. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
GOOD MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW AND A FAIRLY POTENT
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED ON THE MODELS TO ENHANCE FORCING. SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SQUEEZE THE RIDGE SOUTH EVEN AS A SFC WARM
FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD. STORMS COULD FIRE IN THE WARM
SECTOR ALONG I-29 AND EAST WITH A LLJ OF 30 KTS OR BEHIND THE SYSTEM
WITH FALLING FREEZING LEVELS.

TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY TOP OUT IN THE 70S THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH SOME 80S UNDER THE RIDGE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TODAY TO 15 TO 25 KTS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE
FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON
TAF SITES.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SERR
SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM...WISE
AVIATION...WISE


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