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000
FXUS63 KABR 210217 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
917 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 917 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Some showers/storms developing upstream in Wyoming/southern mt
this evening moving east. These will continue to develop/move east
through the night into our CWA. Adjusted pops a little for our
region through the night.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

00z aviation discussion updated below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

Upper level northwest flow over the Northern Plains will gradually
give way to a more zonal flow pattern on Wednesday. At the surface,
high pressure will exit the region to the east tonight as low
pressure approaches from the west. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the boundary as
instability and shear increase overnight. Cannot rule out a few
strong to severe storms as a 40+ knot low level jet sets up as well.
As the front slowly pushes east on Wednesday, it will once again
become the focus for thunderstorms over the eastern CWA, mainly in
the afternoon as instability increases into the 2000-3000 j/kg
range, along with 40 to 60 knots of 0-6km bulk shear. Best chances
for severe look to be over the far southeastern CWA at this time
where these parameters will be the strongest.

Overnight low temperatures will range from the mid 50s east to the
lower 60s west. Strong WAA ahead of the approaching low will result
in high temperatures on Wednesday in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

The long term period begins with a broad upper level trough crossing
the region with a weak surface low pressure. With the best
instability along and south of I-90, the threat of thunderstorms in
this CWA are limited. A stronger upper level trough of low pressure
will cross the region Friday night through Saturday. This system
should have better instability for convective development, mainly in
northeast SD and western MN. Much cooler temperatures will filter
into the region on Saturday with highs only in the mid to upper 60s.
These reading are 15 degrees below normal. Saturday should be the
coldest day in the long term. By Sunday, an upper level ridge will
slowly approach the region from the west. Temperatures will warm
into the early portion of the next work week, with highs reaching
the 80s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected for all locations through tonight and
Wednesday. Influence from a short wave trough moving across to our
north tonight and Wednesday along with a surface front/trough will
bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region late
tonight and Wednesday. These may affect the stations at or in the
vicinity.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...SD
AVIATION...Mohr