Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 151735
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

Adjustments to timing and extent of snow with this mornings
update. Band is very evident from KUDX - now migrating southeast
from Rapid City over to Philip and towards Pierre. Pierre is at
its eastern fringe however with only limited showers evident east
river. The overall evolution and timing hasn`t changed however,
and the NAM has been a fairly good representation. As such,
removed most of the higher pops outside of Central South Dakota,
with much lower snowfall totals north of 212 and east of the
Missouri River. No other changes of note.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

An area of low pressure and Arctic front will cross the region
today. This system will bring light, accumulating snow to central
and south central SD, or where the best forcing is located. A few
CAMS, along with WPC are showing the potential for 1 to 2 inches of
snow in central SD, including the Pierre area. The 0Z NAM had higher
snowfall amounts in this area, however the 6Z run has much less.
Based on a general consensus among models, have increased snowfall
over the previous forecast. With increasing northerly winds, patchy
to areas of blowing snow will be possible with the falling snow and
accumulating snow. Removed the mention of blowing snow in the
northeastern portion of the CWA where there is little to no snow
cover and under an inch of new snow is expected.

High temperatures today will occur this morning with a decrease
through this afternoon. As winds decrease tonight and skies clear,
temperatures should fall into the single digits below zero. Colder
temps are possible over fresh snow cover.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 353 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

The models show good agreement and have been consistent during the
long term with the upper level flow pattern with a more likelihood
of decent snowfall accumulations from Sunday into Monday. The upper
level flow goes from northwest on Friday and Friday night and slowly
transitions to southwest flow aloft through Sunday night as a large
upper level low pressure trough develops over the western U.S. Could
see several inches of snow from this system for Sunday and Monday.
Otherwise, broad upper level troughing remains over the western U.S.
through the middle of the week. An initial short wave trough could
bring the first shot of light snow to our western cwa later Friday
night into Saturday morning. Temperatures will be mostly in the 20s
and lower 30s from Friday through Sunday. Although, Sunday will
likely have falling temperatures in the afternoon as Arctic air
pushes in. The Arctic air will then remain over the region through
Wednesday with highs expected to be only in the single digits and
teens from Monday through Wednesday. The additional snow cover will
enhance the cooling affect, especially at night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 1125 AM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

A mix of MVFR/IFR CIGS/VISBY with snow centered around the KPIR
terminal. KMBG should begin improving with higher CIGS/improved
VISBY upstream. KABR/KATY will see much more showery type
snowfall with off and on reduced VISBY, though CIGS remain MVFR at
KABR and IFR at KATY until stratus breaks up around late
afternoon/evening.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Connelly
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...Mohr
AVIATION...Connelly



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