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000
FXUS63 KABR 011143 AAA
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
543 AM CST SAT MAR 1 2014

.UPDATE...
SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.


&&
.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
LIGHT SNOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST RADAR RETURNS REMAIN
ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA IN COINCIDENCE WITH MODEL 700 MB
FRONTOGENESIS PROGS. THE ADVECTION OF A DECENT PV ANOMALY THIS
AFTERNOON SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF SNOWFALL STILL
EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH DROPPING OUT OF
CANADA. OVERALL MODELS HAVE TRENDED MUCH DRIER IN MODEL RUN
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS WELL...SO STARTED TO REFLECT THIS IN THE
FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THIS MORNING.

COLD TEMPERATURES ARE THE NEXT CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FALL THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL NOT RISE ABOVE ZERO THIS AFTERNOON. UNCERTAIN OF
HOW QUICKLY CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH FRESH
SNOWFALL AND MODEL 925 MB TEMPERATURES STILL BOTTOMING OUT IN THE
UPPER 20S BELOW TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO...CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE
UPPER TEENS BELOW TO 20S BELOW ZERO SURFACE TEMPS FOR SUNDAY
MORNINGS LOW TEMPERATURES. VERY LITTLE REPRIEVE SUNDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY
THAT THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST AND RETURN FLOW WINDS
DEVELOP. STILL...EVEN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS MONDAY WILL
ONLY RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO TEENS ABOVE ZERO. THIS
FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON TRACK TO BREAK SEVERAL LOW
TEMPERATURE...AND LOW HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS. THIS VERY COLD AIR
MASS WILL COMBINE WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS TO ALLOW DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND CHILLS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE REGION. NO CHANGES MADE TO THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY THIS
MORNING EITHER.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
JUST CAN`T SEEM TO DITCH THE NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE
REGION. PERHAPS THE ORIENTATION IS A BIT MORE WEST ON THE COMPASS
INSTEAD OF NORTH. BUT THE END RESULT IS PRETTY MUCH THE
SAME...NAMELY FAST-MOVING MID-LEVEL IMPULSES OF LOW PRESSURE
WORKING MAINLY FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. STILL MULTIPLE ILL-TIMED TRANSIENT WAVES IN ALL
OF THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST SOLUTIONS BRINGING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OFF AND ON THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. ALLBLEND GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A NUMBER OF FORECAST PERIODS WITH SLT CHANCE
TO CHANCE POPS IN THEM. LOW LEVEL THERMAL ADVECTION IN THE
GFS/ECMWF IS STILL PAINTING THE PICTURE OF A SLOW AND STEADY WARM
UP THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH THURSDAY BEING THE WARMEST /AND
POTENTIALLY ABOVE FREEZING/ DAY IN THE OUT PERIODS BEFORE A COLD
FRONT AND LOW LEVEL CAA MAKES A RETURN TO THE FORECAST AREA BY
NEXT FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE REGION IS BRINGING CLOUD
COVER AND SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ON NORTHERLY WINDS.

THE KABR TERMINAL SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND SNOW FREE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT CUTTING OFF AND
EVAPORATING ANY FALLING SNOW BEFORE IT CAN REACH THE GROUND.

THE KATY/KMBG TERMINALS COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF RATHER LIGHT/FINE
SNOW MAINLY BETWEEN 12Z AND 00Z TODAY. MVFR VISBY IN LIGHT SNOW
CAN BE EXPECTED AT THESE TWO TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...IN DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS DURING THE TAF VALID PERIOD...VFR WILL PREVAIL AT THESE
TWO TERMINALS AS WELL.

THE KPIR TERMINAL SHOULD BE SUB-VFR IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR
MUCH OF THE FIRST TWELVE HOURS OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD. PER
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND REGIONAL RADAR...IT IS PROBABLE THAT
MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE TAF VALID PERIOD WILL BE IFR DUE TO
REDUCED VISBY IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW. AFTER 00Z...SNOWFALL
SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF AND MVFR/VFR FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD BECOME PREVAILING WITH MAINLY LINGERING STRATUS CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR BROWN-
     BUFFALO-CAMPBELL-CLARK-CODINGTON-CORSON-DAY-DEUEL-DEWEY-
     EDMUNDS-FAULK-GRANT-HAMLIN-HAND-HUGHES-HYDE-JONES-LYMAN-
     MARSHALL-MCPHERSON-POTTER-ROBERTS-SPINK-STANLEY-SULLY-
     WALWORTH.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST /5 PM MST/ THIS EVENING
     FOR BUFFALO-HUGHES-JONES-LYMAN-STANLEY.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SUNDAY FOR BIG STONE-TRAVERSE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...DORN
AVIATION...DORN

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN