Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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470
FXUS63 KABR 101809 AAC
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
1209 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SEE BELOW FOR AN UPDATED AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD OVERALL. LIGHT SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS EAST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH POSSIBLE. FURTHER WEST...SKIES HAVE
CLEARED OFF WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING NICELY INTO THE LOWER
30S...WITH 40S JUST WEST OF THIS CWA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 528 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SEE UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

BAROCLINIC ZONE UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AXIS FOR A PEAK CLOSE TO 3 INCH ACCUMULATIONS FROM
JAMESTOWN ND SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEBSTER AND WATERTOWN. NAM PROFILES
IN BUFKIT CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE LOSS OF ICE AND A TRANSITION TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE ON THE WESTERN EXTREME OF THE BAND DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

PROFILES SUPPORT STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...POSSIBLY LOW ENOUGH FOR UPSLOPE FOG WEST RIVER AS WINDS
BECOME MORE EASTERLY.

WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE MOVE ACROSS THE CWA
THURSDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND WEAK LIFT ALONG THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE...LIGHT PRECIP SEEMS A POSSIBILITY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT. PROFILES SUPPORT PREDOMINANTLY SNOW WITH THAT SYSTEM...THOUGH
AGAIN WE RUN INTO ICE INTRODUCTION ISSUES SO FREEZING DRIZZLE IS
ALSO AN OUTCOME.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST WED FEB 10 2016

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS. THE HIGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN IT AND LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE ROCKIES. THE SNOW LOOKS TO REACH THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA
DURING THE NIGHT...THEN SLIDES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS CURRENTLY THE MOST AGGRESSIVE
MODEL AS FAR AS QPF GOES...WITH THE GFS REALLY NOT BRINGING IN MUCH
PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD SOMEWHERE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY...THE GFS TRACKS IT EAST OF THE REGION
WITH SNOW JUST CLIPPING THE EASTERN CWA...WHILE THE ECMWF BRINGS THE
LOW DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE AND THEREFORE BRINGS MORE SNOW TO THE
AREA. BEING THIS IS AT THE VERY END OF THE PERIOD...WILL STICK
CLOSER TO THE SUPERBLEND WHICH IS CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT CHILLY WITH THE HIGH MOVING
THROUGH...WITH FRIDAY NIGHTS LOWS BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EAST AND
CENTRAL...AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ACROSS THE WEST. AFTER
A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S ON SATURDAY...WILL
SEE A RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1203 PM CST WED FEB 10 2016

THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF SOUTH DAKOTA /KABR AND KATY/ AND WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA ARE ENSHROUDED IN STRATUS CLOUDS. THE WHOLE AREA
OF CLOUDS IS SLOWLY DRIFTING WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
/KPIR AND KMBG/. AS TIME GOES BY...KATY MAY END UP GETTING OUT OF
THE CLOUDINESS BY EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT WILL LIKELY GET BACK
INTO THE SUB-VFR STUFF BY TOMORROW MORNING. MEANWHILE...LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION IS BASICALLY DONE NOW. PERHAPS THERE COULD BE SOME
LIGHT FREEZING MIST OR DRIZZLE AT KABR/KATY...BUT BY AND
LARGE...DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD SUFFICE UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING
WHEN SNOW CHANCES START RAMPING BACK UP AT THE KMBG/KPIR
TERMINALS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DORN
SHORT TERM...CONNELLY
LONG TERM...PARKIN
AVIATION...DORN



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