Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 210519
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1219 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 857 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

The showers have ended and the skies have cleared this evening
across most of the cwa. With surface high pressure centered over
the area and the winds going light, have lowered temperatures a
few degrees for tonight. The james valley may see 45 degrees by
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

Instability showers will gradually diminish after sunset. Drier
conditions are expected tonight through Monday night. In fact, the
only weather impact expected in the short term will be increasing
fire weather concerns across the southwest cwa on Monday. With good
mixing ahead of a sfc low and ridging to flat flow aloft,
temperatures will soar to near 100 degrees near Pierre on Monday.
Concurrently, RH will fall into the upper teens to mid 20s.

The remainder of the region can expect rising temperatures for the
remainder of the short term, as well, as an upper trough exits and
ridging builds in. Sunday`s highs will top out around average in the
upper 70s to mid 80s. Monday`s highs will climb into the upper 80s
to near 100.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

A 500 MB closed low system over the Pacific NW will gradually move
east along the international border through the long term period.
This means southwest flow will be over the region Tuesday, followed
by the passage of the trough Wednesday and then a weak
northwest/zonal flow by the end of the work week.

Tuesday...850 temps will rise over 20C across the eastern CWA.
Combined with a westerly flow ahead of the surface trough, trended
MaxTs above the blended guidance toward more of the raw model
output. A pretty strong cap will be in place through Tuesday
afternoon, but with upper level support Tuesday night, may see the
development of thunderstorms. Roughly 2000 J/KG of CAPE and 20 KTS
of shear is currently being produced by models...and would suggest
that there could be a severe potential across our eastern CWA
Tuesday night.

Much cooler air will follow for Wednesday and will remain in place
through the workweek. Temperatures will be in the 5 to 10 degree
below normal range. Mostly dry conditions are anticipated as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT SUN AUG 21 2016

Vfr conditions are expected at all locations through tonight and
Sunday.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Mohr
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Serr
AVIATION...Connelly



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