Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 222006
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
306 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Looks to be an active evening coming for the region. Elevated
convection in ND became sfc rooted and is now moving southeast
through the central ABR CWA with large hail and high winds being
reported. Will likely see more convection fire up on outflows across
the region through evening, especially given very unstable airmass
across the region. Deep layer shear is fairly decent over northern
SD, but ll shear (0-1km) is somewhat week, which should limit the
tornado potential.

More activity is currently developing over western SD/NE in advance
of mid level wave tracking out of WY.  This activity is expected to
spread into the western CWA this evening, and across the rest of the
state overnight. The highest probabilities of severe this evening
are probably over NW/NC SD where instability remains high and deep
layer shear is highest.  However strong instability CWA wide could
promote strong/severe storms even over southwest CWA.

On Saturday afternoon storms a head of an advancing front could turn
severe in the afternoon, mainly east of the James Valley. The rest
of the short range looks fairly tranquil as high pressure builds
south over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

The mid level flow over the CONUS will feature a developing positive
Pacific North American pattern as we head into and through the long
term. With the mid level ridge building out west, the flow will turn
to northwest across much of the Northern Plains. This presents
issues for timing any waves across the region.  Several systems look
to move through during the period with the models all over the place
concerning pcpn chances.  For now will have to accept the broad
brush approach and hope for better timing in future runs.
Temperatures overall should average out below normal due to the
influx of air from the north.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Storms located just north of the state line may impact the KABR
terminal later this afternoon. Additional storms may also form
close to KMBG. Both these terminals could see activity through
much of the afternoon/evening, with diminishing confidence
overnight.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Excessive Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
     SDZ003-004-009-010-015>020-022-023-033>037-045-048-051.

MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TDK
LONG TERM...TDK
AVIATION...Connelly


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