Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 232048
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
348 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH A DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...FIRE WEATHER WILL BE A CONCERN ON FRIDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LIKELY FALL TO THE 20
PERCENT RANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE CWA ON FRIDAY...BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
THANKFULLY MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH AFTER PEAK
HEATING. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 60S. THESE
READINGS ARE STILL TEN DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE MODELS IN THE LONG TERM SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY ON AND THEN
SHOW SOME IMPORTANT DIFFERENCES LATER ON. THE MODELS ALL SHOW
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED OVER OUR REGION ON SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN US.
THE WARM SOUTH WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH WILL BRING ONE
MORE MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
IN THE 60S. A FRONT THEN COMES THROUGH AND COOLS IT DOWN FOR
MONDAY WITH EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
ISSUE DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HOW MUCH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPMENT OCCURS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING
IN FROM THE WEST. THE GFS AT THIS TIME SHOWS A MUCH STRONGER
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPING AND MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE EC AND GEM HAD A MUCH WEAKER SURFACE LOW PRESSURE REFLECTION.
THUS...THE GFS HAD MUCH MORE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE AND QPF. WITH
THIS DISAGREEMENT...KEPT WITH THE SMALL POPS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSER TO LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS IN THE UPPER 40S TO THE MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
TODAY...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE SOME FOG
FORMING AT ABR AND ATY LATER TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND SMALLER DEW POINT SPREADS. THE FOG
COULD POSSIBLY FALL TO A MILE OR LESS AT ATY.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.