Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 241414

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
914 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Issued at 914 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Tracking the northeast edge of the cloud shield that could be just
southeast of Britton-Sisseton shortly after 19Z, if they don`t
erode before then. Continue to edit cloud cover as needed,
bumping it up over the eastern third of the forecast area this
morning. No other significant changes were made to the ongoing

UPDATE Issued at 703 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Temperatures have begun to rise, so have gone ahead and cancelled
the frost advisory. No other changes made to the forecast at this


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Afternoon)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Surface high pressure is parked over the area this morning, with
mainly light winds. There are some higher clouds streaming down from
the north, which may be keeping temps up just a touch, but they have
still managed to fall into the upper 30s for many locations with
another couple hours of cooling left. Will keep the Frost Advisory
in place for the time being as temps may fall a few more degrees
by sunrise, with potential for frost in low-lying areas.

For the rest of today, the surface high will move away from the area
and allow for southerly winds to return. Aloft, upper level ridging
will build across the Dakotas allowing a warmer air mass to move
into the region. Highs will rebound into the 60s and lower 70s today
under mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies. Overnight, a surface
trough will make its way eastward through the CWA. Looking at mainly
shower chances as the trough pushes through, and will see best
chances across western into central SD this evening. With loss of
daytime heating, expect much of the activity to diminish before
anything reaches the James Valley. Better upper level forcing over
ND may keep showers going longer into the evening, but will really
taper off precip chances over the CWA after 06Z tonight.

Thursday is looking like a mild and breezy day behind the passing
frontal boundary. Increased winds a bit over central SD above that
of SuperBlend. With good mixing, have also increased highs a couple
degrees above SuperBlend. Mild temperatures look to continue into
Friday as well, with 70s for highs.

.LONG TERM...(Friday Evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

An upper level low will be over central Canada at the beginning of
the extended period, with a trough extending from it back to the
southwest over the northern Rockies. The low will drop southward
over the region Saturday night, exiting to the east by Monday
morning. Northwest flow then sets up Monday night before a secondary
lobe off the low drops over the area on Tuesday.

At the surface, weak high pressure will be over the area Friday
evening, but gets pushed quickly to the east as a low pressure
system tracks from eastern Colorado across the Central Plains,
spreading potential precipitation as far north as the southern CWA
late Friday night and Saturday. Lingering shower/isolated
thunderstorm chances will continue into the day Sunday as the region
becomes situated between the exiting low and high pressure to the
west, and weak instability develops. The high settles in over the
region Monday and Tuesday, bringing dry conditions with it.

Temperatures will be right around normal, with highs in the upper
60s to mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Wed May 24 2017

There will be a few areas of early morning MVFR vsbys in fog,
mainly across the northern CWA. By mid morning, VFR conditions
will prevail and will remain through the rest of the day and into




LONG TERM...Parkin
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