Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 300142 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
842 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Despite the general down-turn in convective activity over the
cwa, broad cyclonic motion is noted in the water vapor loop over
the region with a couple smaller transient shortwaves churning
within it. Models also prog some subtle low level jet winds
developing overnight. As such, will continue to mention the small
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Forecast low temps in the
50s and 60s still look to be on track.

UPDATE Issued at 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

See below for an updated aviation forecast discussion.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Weak shortwaves crossing the region through Saturday will bring
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to the Dakotas. With
limited MU-Cape values, believe lightning and brief periods of heavy
rain will be the main threats.

As a strong 500 mb low pressure moves into the Pac NW, weak upper
level ridging and WAA will develop over the Northern Plains. With a
weak LLJ and WAA, elevated convection will be possible Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Additional storms are possible Sunday
night into Monday morning as the 500 mb low pressure passes across
southern Canada. While severe weather looks possible, the strength
of cap remains a bit in question. As of now, locations along and
north of Highway 212 will have the best potential of seeing strong
to severe storms.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

Monday into Monday night, models agree fairly well in showing low
pressure moving through the region. They just differ a bit on
details and timing, with the EC dropping the front/low pressure
trough through a bit more quickly compared to the GFS and GEM.
Regardless, it appears thunderstorm chances are legit for Monday
into Monday night and did not stray much from what Superblend gave
for POPs. Models then show a cold front passage Tuesday night into
Wednesday time frame, bringing another chance for precipitation.
Overall, temperatures look to be warm/hot through the period,
especially early on with a very warm air mass in place ahead of the
mid-week frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 636 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF forecast period.
Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through
the overnight, mainly at/in the vicinity of the KMBG and KPIR
terminals. Isolated/scattered convective redevelopment is also
expected again by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...SD
LONG TERM...TMT
AVIATION...Dorn



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