Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 062054
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
354 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO OUR NORTHWEST WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST AND
BE OVER OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. THE MIXING LAYER
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS AS SURFACE HEATING SUBSIDES. OTHERWISE...SMOKE CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE REGION ON NORTH WINDS AS SEVERAL OBS STILL SHOWING
HAZE. THUS...CONTINUED WITH AREAS OF SMOKE FOR TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY WITH LITTLE TO NO SMOKE EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR ALOFT AS THE
PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST FROM CANADA. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE 70S FOR HIGHS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ALL SHOW A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT DROPPING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
WEAK FOCUS ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO BRING BACK SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
WASH OUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THUS...TOOK OUT ANY CHANCES OF RAINFALL FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AT THIS TIME.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGES IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD ARE TEMPERATURE
TRENDS AND GENERALLY LOWER GRADE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN IN THE LONG RANGE WILL BEGIN WITH A CLOSED
LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND WEAK UPPER RIDGING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL U.S. THE LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL GRADUALLY TRACK
NEWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS BY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS STRONG
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING RE-DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
STATES.

IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...EXPECTING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES...UPPER
70S TO MID 80S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND RESULTING IN A GENERAL UPSWING IN PRECIP/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. HOWEVER...THERE WILL LIKELY BE CAPPING ISSUES ASSOCIATED
WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL /H7/ TEMPERATURES...SO TIMING AND COVERAGE
OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION.  AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW.  THERE COULD BE A FEW STRONG STORMS
ACROSS WESTERN SD ON FRIDAY...WITH THE THREAT PERHAPS PUSHING EWD ON
SATURDAY.  TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE GFS IS SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY WARM CONDITIONS ON SAT/SUN
/90S TO NEAR 100F/ WHEREAS THE ECMWF IS COOLER.  AT THIS
TIME...TRENDED MORE WITH THE COOLISH ECMWF DUE TO ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM RECENT RAINS AND REDUCED VERTICAL MIXING.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 116 PM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP SWD ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS. THIS IS RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS...WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS /15 TO 25 KTS/ AT TIMES.
ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND FOG HAVE DEPARTED...HAZE/SMOKE IS STILL BEING
REPORTED OFF AND ON AT THE AIRFIELDS...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
ONGOING AT KABR AND KATY. WITH BETTER MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...EXPECT VSBYS TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE AOA 5SM. LATER
TONIGHT...SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS WINDS DIMINISH. THIS
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG/SMOKE YET AGAIN. DIFFICULT TO FORECAST
VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT THIS POINT...BUT DID INTRODUCE MVFR
CONDITIONS AT MOST TERMINALS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOHR
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...FOWLE



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