Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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000
FXUS63 KABR 230521 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1221 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 807 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Gonna let the forecast ride. Temperatures are in line at the
moment, a dry and quiet high pressure night ahead.

UPDATE Issued at 706 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

See below for an aviation forecast discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Will continue the Red Flag Warning over the northwestern CWA late
this afternoon into the early evening hours, though winds have
struggled a bit to reach criteria. Otherwise, dry conditions will
continue tonight and Sunday as high pressure moves in from the
north, settles in over the CWA late tonight and Sunday morning
before getting pushed east of the region Sunday afternoon.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight, with lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. With the surface high will come slightly cooler air, with
highs ranging from the upper 70s east to the upper 80s west on
Sunday. Wind speeds will generally be in the 5 to 15 mph range.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

Generally the long term will be dominated by an initial upper ridge
that will experience a brief period of suppression with a system
moving across southern Canada, only to return after mid week.

Trends for precipitation have been diminished as well, with less
consistency among deterministic runs on a stalled frontal system
Wednesday/Thursday which now appears to have shifted south of the
area.

The main highlights will be the cool/dry start Sunday/early Monday,
with a warm surge Monday/Monday night. Afterwards we can expect to
experience more seasonal conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Sun Jul 23 2017

It still looks like mostly VFR flying weather over the next 24
hours. That said, watching for the potential for some low (mainly
MVFR) stratus to develop between now and 12Z Sunday across the
eastern Dakotas and Minnesota. Perhaps the KATY terminal ends up
briefly on the western edge of these low stratus clouds.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...Connelly
AVIATION...TDK


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