Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KABR 262047
AFDABR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ABERDEEN SD
347 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AS
WELL...SWITCHING  WINDS AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST. AGAIN EXPECTING
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 50S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WEDNESDAY MORNING.

CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW CENTER OVER THE
SOUTHWEST CONUS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT
EASTWARD...KICKING ENERGY OUT HEAD OF IT...WHICH WILL BE NEARING
THE REGION WEDNESDAY. OVERALL...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR CWA...SO NO MAJOR
CHANGES TO POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN TO THE SOUTH AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
THE LONG TERM MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE
FLOW ACROSS THE US FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE PERIOD BEGINS
WITH ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR REGION WITH MODEST UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO
FOLLOW IN BEHIND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK UPPER WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE QUICK FLOW MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS TO EASTERN
PART OF THE REGION FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY AS THE UPPER RIDGE SLIDES OVER THE REGION. THE
MODELS THEN ALL SHOW A LARGE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FORMING OVER THE
WESTERN US INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL KICK
OUT OF THIS WESTERN TROUGH AND NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO THE CWA. TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD IN THE UPPER 70S
TO THE MID 80S. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH MOSTLY 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS FOR THE KABR...KATY...KPIR AND KMBG TERMINALS

VFR MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OUT WEST. SOME VIRGA/LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING AND MAY AFFECT THE STATIONS.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
SHORT TERM...SERR
LONG TERM...MOHR
AVIATION...MOHR

WEATHER.GOV/ABERDEEN




USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.