Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KABR 222020

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
320 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

Upper level ridging along with a surface low pressure system over
western SD is producing warm temperatures and gusty southerly winds.
The ridge and surface low will slowly track eastward tonight with
gusty, down-slope winds likely.

During the afternoon hours on Tuesday, the surface low pressure
system should be located over eastern ND with a trailing cold
front/dry line bisecting this CWA. While convection will be possible
along the front, warm temps at 700 mb may keep thunderstorms from
developing until 0Z. With an upper level trough of low pressure
closer to the region by 0Z, mid-level temps should cool off
allowing for convection to develop. While strong to severe storms
are possible, locally heavy rainfall maybe the main threat. PWATS and
specific humidity values are two standard deviations above climo,
especially along and east of the I-29 corridor. Storm motion
should be fairly slow as well, which leads to locally heavy

Wednesday through Wednesday night will be dry with breezy northerly

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

The upper trough across southern Canada will move quickly out of the
region late this week and allow west to southwest flow to develop
quickly across the area. This will usher more chances of showers and
thunderstorms. Best chances will be Thursday night and again

Pattern looks pretty active with shortwave activity, so forecast is
broad brushed with Pops. Expect this to tighten up as we get closer
and timing can be nailed down. Temperatures will warm up from the
70s late week into the 80s over the weekend.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1206 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. However, low level
wind shear is expect to develop across the eastern portions of the
area with LLWS likely at KABR, KATY and KPIR.


.ABR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for SDZ267.



LONG TERM...Scarlett
AVIATION...Scarlett is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.