Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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FXUS63 KABR 231641 AAB
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1041 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1035 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

Continue to backpedal on POPs/QPF/snow accums on this winter
storm that`s moving across the central Plains. Northern fringe
areas of the storm are where the biggest differences are noted as
the system continues to take a southern track. Headlines may soon
be affected as we continue to adjust things for a more southern
track. May have to downgrade/cancel advisories and warnings, but
will continue to monitor and see how things unfold over the next
few hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

We`re back to where we started from about 48 hours ago before the
anomalous jog northwards in some of the models yesterday. As such
have removed more of the counties from our headlines, with the main
areas impacted now along interstate 90, with less certainty between
interstate 90 and highway 14 prompting a downgrade of the watch to a
winter weather advisory. The southern Coteau will also see
accumulating snow, but with best forcing to the south of that area,
totals will be only a few inches. 1/2 km winds out of the northeast
overnight will top out around 30kts across southern counties.
Visibility in falling snow will be diminished even further by these
winds, however the recent melt means that snow will stick to the
ground and blowing/drifting will be non-existent once the snowfall
ends.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

An upper level trough over the region this weekend will keep
temperatures near average with highs in the upper 20s and 30s.
Shortwave activity moving through the trough coupled with some cold
air advection will squeeze out some isolated snow showers. Upper
troughing will dominate the region through mid week. The trough will
begin to exit on Thursday and temperatures will reflect that as they
pop back into the 40s.

While no significant precip is expected, there will be a couple of
sfc low pressure systems that move quickly through and may bring
some additional showers.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

A winter storm system will move through the region today and
tonight. KPIR and KATY will be the taf sites primarily affected.
However, MVFR/IFR stratus will impact all sites by this afternoon.
Snow will move from west to east this morning. As winds increase
this afternoon and evening, visibility will fall to IFR in blowing
snow. Conditions will begin to improve by the end of the taf
period.

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for SDZ045-048-051.

     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ Friday for
     SDZ033-035>037.

MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TMT
SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Wise
AVIATION...Wise



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