Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031548

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
948 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Issued at 948 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Satellite shows a few holes in the clouds down over southeast ND
and portions of west central MN. There are also holes approaching
the western FA, or over areas west of Devils Lake. Therefore
there may still be an appearance of the sun in spots today, but
really do not expect it to last too long. Winds have turned to the
south and are actually a little gusty across the western FA
already. The forecast has these elements covered well at this
point, so only minor adjustments were made.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Low clouds lingering over the area this morning will decrease a
bit through the day today...with patchy sunshine most likely in
eastern North Dakota during the forenoon. Light southerly winds
will help boost daytime highs into low 30s though increasing mid
level clouds will keep overall warming to a minimum.

A low pressure trof will push into the area this evening with
areas of light snow possible during the evening and overnight
periods. Snowfall accumulations will generally run less than an
inch. With a return to cloudy skies and light snow... overnight
lows should settle into the middle to upper 20s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 258 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

Sunday and Monday... As the initial low pressure trof lifts from
the Red River Valley across northern Minnesota and into northwest
Ontario on Sunday... expect light snow to diminish early and
skies to clear from the west through Sunday afternoon. Partial
clearing is expected to persist Sunday night... while Monday will
see the next low pressure system move into the area from the
west. Model guidance currently has a low pressure system tracking
from northwest SD into the central RRV during the day on Monday...
with areas of snow overspreading much of the area through Monday

Monday night and Tuesday... Model blend solutions show the
surface low track just east of the Red River with highest chances
for snow northeastern ND and far northwestern Minnesota. Snow
chances will diminish on Tuesday as the low continues to move
north. Will need to watch winds as the blended model solutions may
be too low. The exact path of the sfc low does show some slight
wavering with a few models 50 miles west of the blended solution
and thus heavier snow more Devils Lake-Langdon vs the blended
solution which is closer to Grand Forks- Grafton-Pembina-Hallock.
System will be intensifying as it moves north. Blended qpf used
for forecast would indicate potential for 6 inch snows in the far
northern RRV with 4 inch snows down to Grand Forks. Still too
early in the game for headlines.

Wednesday into Saturday... The surface low and upper level trough
will strengthen north of the border with the upper low basically
stalling out in far eastern Manitoba/far NW Ontario mid week with
lingering clouds and chances for light snow Wed-Thu. Colder air
moving in behind the system but the center of 1050 mb high is in
west central Alberta with nose more into eastern Montana. With our
region more in the clouds the temperature spread will not be
great. Look for highs mostly teens and single digits for lows late


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 632 AM CST Sat Dec 3 2016

MVFR cloud deck remains in the Red river valley and northwestern and
west central Minnesota and expect this to hold into tonight.  Could
short lived clearing holes however.  DVL basin seeing IFR clouds
after some brief clearing.  These cloud bases should rise back into
low end MVFR range this afternoon.  Surface trough moving east into
the area after 06z Sunday will aid in ceilings lowering back into
IFR range in many areas.  Also areas of vsby reduction due to light
snow. South winds thru the evening 8 to 15 kts.




LONG TERM...Gust/Riddle
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.