Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 122152
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
352 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND REMAIN AN OPEN WAVE.

WARM ADVECTION PRECIP TO MOVE INTO THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN SAT
AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA SAT NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE
SAT AFTERNOON AND MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING SNOW. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND NOT EXPECTING STRONG WINDS POST
PRECIPITATION BANDS. A FAIR AMOUNT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR THE SAT
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING PERIOD. MODELS GENERALLY HAVE BEEN
TRENDING FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL RUNS. TWO TO FIVE
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER MODELS NOT STABLE WITH QPF AMOUNTS
AND SO WILL NOT ISSUE ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

IN THE MEANTIME A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM THE SASK/MAN BORDER TO
THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER MN BY MORNING. COLD TEMPS
AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR UNDER THE RIDGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN
IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW RANGE OVERNIGHT AND SAT MORNING. WIND CHILLS
WILL BE LOW IN THE EAST ZONES OVERNIGHT AND IMPROVE IN THE MORNING.
THE THE NORTHWEST WILL GO DOWN LATER TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW. WILL
KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH JUST ONE AREA IN THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE ZONAL
FLOW BY LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE NATIONS MID
SECTION.  ONE SHORT WAVE WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCES TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TO OCCUR THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS TEMPERATURES REACH
THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CST FRI FEB 12 2016

SKIES MAINLY CLEAR INTO TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM
TNE WEST SATURDAY MORNING.  NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS DIMINISHING TO
5 KTS THIS EVENING AND HOLDING LIGHT AND VARIABLE SATURDAY OVERNIGHT
BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR NDZ006>008-015-
     016-026>030-054.

MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST SATURDAY FOR MNZ001-002-
     004>009-013>017-022>024-028-032.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE


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