000
FXUS63 KFGF 211800
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
100 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CLOUD COVER IS BEGINNING TO THIN OUT TO THE WEST OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY PRETTY QUICKLY NOW. REST OF THE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE
MOSTLY SUNNY WHILE AREAS ACROSS NORTHWEST MN WILL BE IN THE CLOUDS
FOR A WHILE YET. TEMPS STILL ON THE COOL SIDE WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT ARE STILL IN LINE TO RISE INTO THE 50S BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND UPCOMING PCPN
CHANCES. BY MIDWEEK MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH UPPER
LOW TRACK AND WHERE ASSOCIATED MAIN RAIN BAND WILL SET UP. HELD
PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE IN LATER PERIODS.

FOR TODAY COLD FRONT SHOULD BE THROUGH FA BY MORNING. COOLER
COLUMN IN PLACE WITH COOLEST AIR ALOFT ACROSS NE FA THIS
AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND/COLD ADVECTION STRATUS PROGGED BY MODELS
TO DROP THROUGH FA THIS MORNING. MAIN UNCERTAINTY WILL BE HOW MUCH
CLOUD COVER WILL BE ACROSS THE FA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL HAVE
IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES. WILL NO DOUBT BE QUITE A BIT COOLER TODAY
BUT JUST HOW MUCH IS THE QUESTION. MAINTAINED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO INHERITED INHERITED VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVERNIGHT. DIMINISHING WIND AND MAINLY
SKC SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP OFF CLOSE TO FREEZING.

TUESDAY WILL SEE SOME THERMAL RECOVERY WITH INCREASED MIXING AND
WARM ADVECTION.

SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL PROPAGATE
TO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BY MORNING. PRECIPITABLE H2O VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND AS LOW LEVEL JET SHIFTS EAST SHOULD
SEE AREAS OF RAIN DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY AFT MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AS UPPER LOW WOBBLES INTO THE FA LOOKS LIKE A RESPECTABLE RAIN
EVENT SETTING UP WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS DIFFER ON UPPER LOW
TRACK AND THIS WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON WHERE MAIN RAIN BAND SETS UP
BUT OVERALL FOR NOW LIKELY POPS LOOK GOOD SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING THE PERIOD. AS MODELS COME TOGETHER LATER SHIFTS WILL
BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACCORDINGLY. NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH
THUNDER POTENTIAL UNTIL LATER WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF
THE FA.

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN RELATIVELY FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH EVOLUTION OF CUTOFF 500MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIDWEEK. MOST OF THURSDAY WILL BE A
TRANSITION FROM THE DRY SLOT ACROSS E ND AND THE END OF THE WAA PCPN
BAND IN NW MN TO THE DEFORMATION ZONE FORMING AND DRAGGING A RAIN
SNOW MIX ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE EARLY FRIDAY WITH NORTH
WINDS. SFC HIGH ON SATURDAY WILL BRING A COOL END OF APRIL WEEKEND.
TEMPS FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW END OF APRIL NORMALS...40S AND
50S FOR HIGHS WITH LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MVFR CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF THE RRV WILL STEADILY SHIFT EASTWARD AND
RAISE/DIMINISH THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON... WITH SKIES BECOMING
CLEAR IN NORTHWEST MN BY EVENING. ELSE... FEW CLOUDS IN EASTERN ND
WILL GIVE RISE TO GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THERE. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON... BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. FAIR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED EARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GUST