Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 151813
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1213 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

The Winter Weather Advisory for Blowing/Drifting Snow remains in
effect thru mid afternoon /21z/. Suspended snow continues to
plague the central RRV corridor with visibilities vacillating
between 1/4 to 1/2 mile from the Canadian border down through the
F-M area. Some slight weakening in the winds is starting to show,
with a slow improvement still expected through the afternoon.

Have extended the Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories into Tuesday
forenoon. Satellite imagery shows generally fair skies above the
blowing snows of the RRV and eastern ND. with patchy low clouds
expected to continue scattering out of northcentral MN through the
afternoon. Thus lesser winds but colder overnight temperatures
will produce similar wind chill effects tonight into early
Tuesday.

An update Aviation Discussion is attached below.

UPDATE Issued at 930 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Have extended the WInter Weather Advisory for Blowing/Drifting
until mid afternoon /21z/. Though surface pressure gradient force
seems to be weakening, the cold advection and blayer instability
is really keeping the gust factor quite high. Will likely extend
wind chill warning and advisories as we approach noon.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Added some light snow for this morning in the Red River Valley
proper. No other changes at this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 358 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Water vapor loop indicated an upper low over northern MN. The
upper low is forecast to move over Lake michigan by 12Z Tue.
Pressure gradient expected to remain up through sunset Mon.
Winds should decrease after sunset.

Winter weather advisory continues through noon today essentially
for the Red River Valley proper from Fargo northward. A wind chill
advisory continues in the far eastern zones till noon today. A
wind chill warning remains in effect until noon today for eastern
ND and mostly the neighboring two tier counties east of the Red
River.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Weather impacts in the extended appear to be minor as a relatively
quiet period develops. After an extremely cold start Tuesday morning
temperatures will be on the rise as arctic airmass departs. Tuesday
night will see winds turn to the southwest and rising temps
overnight as 500mb ridging allows an airmass of pacific origin to
move over the northern plains. As a result highs in the 20s and 30s
are expected for by Wednesday through the rest of the week. The
There is a slight chance for snow Thursday though placement and
timing is still widespread. A stronger system looks to have its
sights on the central plains next week with its northern fringe
possibly brushing a Lisbon to Wahpeton to Park Rapids and south
line.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1212 PM CST Mon Jan 15 2018

Widespread IFR conditions will continue over the Red River Valley
proper with strong winds producing significant blowing and
drifting snow. Further into northwest MN...expect patchy MVFR
CIGS and VSBYS throughout the day. West of the RRV in eastern
ND... expect mainly VFR CIGS with patchy MVFR VSBYS in blowing
snow through midafternoon...trending towards VFR conditions by
nightfall. Most of the Red River Corridor and northwest through
west central MN should have VFR CIGS after 00z... though patchy
MVFR vsbys will linger along the RRV corridor through 04z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST Tuesday for NDZ006>008-
     014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030-039.

MN...Wind Chill Warning until 11 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ001>004-007-
     029-030-040.

     Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM CST Tuesday for MNZ005-006-008-
     009-013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     MNZ001>004-007-013>015.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Gust
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...Gust



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