Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 282332
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
632 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

The cumulus is already fading away, which should leave mainly
clear skies tonight with light south winds. It may appear a little
hazy or smokey as it has done in recent days. Overall a very nice
night is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Primary forecast challenge in the short term is convection
potential Saturday afternoon. Models generally targeting southern
MB in the morning hours extending SW into cntrl ND for the
afternoon. For tonight, quiet with light southerly winds. WAA
developing across srn Canada as a sfc boundary sinks into SE Sask.
Overnight lows falling into the mid 60s, possibly cooler in the
far east if winds decouple. Weak sfc boundary moving into NE ND by
tomorrow evening however best QG convergence remains mainly north
of intl border...so POPs remain north of area thorugh early aftn
before some development possible across cntrl ND into ND ND as sfc
trough approaches. With weak upper level support mainly general
thunder expected in the west and northwest until the early
portions of the long term period. Temps increasing into the mid to
upper 80s with warmest temps in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 234 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

On Saturday night, small chances for showers and thunderstorms move
through from northwest to southeast as weak shortwave energy aloft
combines with a weak surface boundary dropping southward from the
Hudson Bay. With fairly high precipitable water values of one and a
half to two inches, could see some brief downpours, especially along
the international border. However do not anticipate any severe storm
threat Saturday night at this time with little to no deep layer
shear and weak instability present. With the boundary fizzling out
and upper level ridging starting to build in for Sunday, expect
lower level southerly flow to continue to bring warm moist air in.
Have some small chances for isolated showers and storms Sunday as
weak shortwave energy continues to push over the ridge, but expect
the day to remain mostly dry and very warm overall.

On Monday into Tuesday, better chances for thunderstorms develop as
shortwave energy aloft combines with a stronger frontal boundary
passing west to east through the area. Additionally, the most recent
GEFS guidance hints that this timeframe could bring one of the
hottest days this year for at least parts of the area. That being
said, there is still some uncertainty to be ironed out in the
details regarding this system over the next few days.

Starting Tuesday, model confidence decreases considerably. After the
aforementioned system passes, northwest flow aloft sets up again for
the middle of the week and would likely bring generally drier
conditions and near normal temperatures through the second half of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2017

Mainly light winds/clear skies tonight. On Saturday winds should
pick up a little by late morning, with some cumulus possible
again through the afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Godon
SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...BP
AVIATION...Godon


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