Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 030447
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1147 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD SLOWLY AS UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVES EAST. A SECOND SHORT WAVE OVER FAR SW MANITOBA
AND ASSOC SHOWERS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AS WELL. THUS HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN OVERNIGHT NORTH AND EAST. DID LOWER POPS IN SE ND
BUT STILL KEPT IN 20-30 POP ZONE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES COMING
THROUGH THE REGION AS SEEN ON WV LOOP. THE STRONGEST CIRCULATION
IS CURRENTLY LIFTING FROM EASTERN MT INTO CANADA...BUT THERE ARE
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES ENTERING CENTRAL ND AND ANOTHER IN EASTERN
WY THAT WILL BE OF CONCERN FOR US TONIGHT. THE SFC LOW HAS SET UP
OVER NORTH CENTRAL SD...BUT SHORT RANGE MODELS PERSIST IN AN
INVERTED TROUGH OR EVEN A MORE NORTHERN SFC LOW COMING INTO OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES LATER TONIGHT. THERE HAS FINALLY BEEN SOME
CLEARING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...AND WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
60S IN THAT REGION THERE SHOULD BE CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION.
SOME TOWERING CU AND CELLS ON RADAR HAVE ALREADY STARTED TO
DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL ND SOUTH OF BISMARCK...AND STORM SCALE MODELS
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP STORMS FROM THAT AREA INTO OUR SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGH POPS AND A
SEVERE MENTION MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES. AND A TORNADO
WATCH FOR COOPERSTOWN SOUTH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED.

THE OTHER ISSUE WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PERSISTANT RAIN ALONG THE
WARM FRONT IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES HAS BROUGHT A HALF AN INCH TO
AN INCH TO THE FAR NORTH. WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.5 INCHES...THERE
WILL BE CONTINUED THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN ANY ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THINK THAT THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE AT A FAIRLY
DECENT CLIP AND DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE A LOT OF TRAINING CELLS AT
THIS POINT. WILL NOT INCLUDE ANY WATCHES AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
HAVE SOME HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS.

BY TOMORROW...THE MODELS ALL HAVE THE SHORTWAVE OVER WY MOVING OFF
INTO MN...WITH THE SFC LOW HEADING EAST AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING
INTO THE CWA. THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ACTIVITY NEAR
AND EVEN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP POPS
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY GOES ON ON
WEDNESDAY. TEMPS IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES WILL ALSO WILL BE
AFFECTED BY SOME DECENT WARM AIR ADVECTION...SO EVEN WITH SOME
DECREASING CLOUDS THINK THAT HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 60S. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING TOWARDS THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
PLAINS. THE NAM AND ECMWF HAVE SOME PRECIP LINGERING INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES SO WILL KEEP SOME LOW
POPS GOING FOR A BIT LONGER. THERE COULD BE SOME CLEARING OVER THE
EASTERN COUNTIES AND TEMPS OVERNIGHT COULD DIP DOWN INTO THE 40S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VARIOUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH
ON THURSDAY...BUT AT THIS POINT IT SEEMS THAT THE MAIN ONES WILL
MOVE EITHER INTO CANADA OR SOUTH INTO MN/IA BORDER REGION. KEPT
SOME LOW POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT IN
CASE ANYTHING FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE STRAYS INTO OUR
AREA...BUT THINK WE SHOULD HAVE A SHORT BREAK IN ACTIVITY. THE
BREAK WILL BE MORE PRONOUCED ON FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
INTO THE AREA SO KEPT US DRY. TEMPS SHOULD BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MODELS SHOW SFC HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDING OFF TO THE EAST FRIDAY NIGHT WITH APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE.
MODELS DIFFER ON PCPN PLACEMENT AND TIMING AT THIS POINT BUT DO
AGREE ON A DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING THRU. THIS WOULD GIVE BETTER
PCPN CHANCES FOR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA. BY SUNDAY
THE PCPN CHANCES LINGER ALONG AND EAST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS
ANOTHER WEAKER SHORT WAVE MAY ROTATE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE MAIN
WAVE. AS THIS FEATURE SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST IT WILL SLOWLY BE
REPLACED BY RIDGING AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER FOR MON/TUE. TEMPS THAT
START OFF COOL FOR SAT INTO SUNDAY SHOULD WARM UP MORE BY MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

SCATTERED T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND GFK-TVF-BJI AREAS OVERNIGHT.
AREA OF LOWER CIGS (SOME IFR/MVFR) IN NE ND WILL SPREAD SOUTH
BEHIND SFC LOW AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTH LATER TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOW LONG THE MVFR CIGS LAST INTO WEDNESDAY IS
IS QUESTIONABLE...AS UPSTREAM OBS SHOW A VARIETY OF MVFR AND VFR
CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RIDDLE
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/GODON
AVIATION...RIDDLE



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.