Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211943

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
243 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Precip chances in the far north and far south will be the primary
forecast challenges for the period.

The forecast area continues to be caught between systems with
surface high pressure to the north and developing low pressure to
the south. Along the edge of the surface high across northwestern
ND another band of fairly strong 700mb frontogenesis has
developed and more showers have formed near the international
border. The models are all fairly consistent on lifting the best
frontogenesis northward into Canada this evening. Think that the
far northwestern counties could get brushed by the showers but
otherwise most of the rain generated by that feature will stay to
the north and west.

Further south, there is a decent shortwave trough lifting out of
Neb and that system will move into IA and southern MN overnight.
Short range models have been trending further south and away from
our southeastern counties, but storms have already started to
develop just south of Grant county so some showers and storms are
not out of the question as the system moves northeast. The heavy
rainfall and true severe threat will be further south along the
warm front, but SPC meso page has some elevated CAPE in the far
southern counties. Will keep a chance for showers and isolated
thunder going for this evening. The push between drier air from
high pressure to our north and moisture from the south will
continue into tomorrow. A few of the models keep some precip in
the far south into Thursday, so kept some very low POPs going
along that border.

With some clearing tonight and drier air moving in from Canada,
the northern half of the CWA should see temps dip down into the
40s tonight. The cloudier south should stay in the 50s. With weak
cold air advection highs on Thursday should be mainly in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 243 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

An upper ridge will begin to move east of the region late Thu night
into Friday, allowing a southwest flow pattern to develop aloft.  An
upper trough/low will then move over the northern plains this
weekend, resulting in an extended period of active weather from
Friday through Monday as the upper low wobbles over northwestern ND.
Key challenges for weekend weather will be timing a possible dry
slot that will bring a break to the active weather Saturday night
and typical model differences on the positions/tracks of surface
features and precipitation.  Temperatures will generally be in the
60s however southeast ND and most of the valley may rise into the
70s (upper 70s in the southern valley) if the GFS-progged dry slot
brings some sunshine late Sat aftn. Dry weather should arrive in the
Tue-Wed timeframe next week as ridging amplifies over the northern
rockies and the upper low sinks into the southern plains.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

All sites are VFR as clouds have been mostly mid and high level.
Showers over the northern forecast area have been diminishing and
further development tonight should remain either to the north or
south of the TAF sites. Increasing mid level clouds will bring
some ceilings to around 8000-12000 ft tonight and lower stratus
should stay to the south of KFAR late tonight and tomorrow. Winds
will shift around to the north-northeast and pick up a bit by the
end of the period.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...Speicher
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