Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291423

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
923 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Issued at 922 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

With partly to mostly clear skies and quickly warming temps, no
changes to the going forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

The main forecast challenge will be the strong weather system for
later Sunday through Monday. Until then, looking at fairly quiet
weather. For today there should be abundant sunshine with just
some thin cirrus around. Temps have responded well the past couple
of days to the strong sunshine, so went with the higher end of
temp guidance for today. The Central Plains surface low organizes
over Kansas by 12z Sunday, bringing a little bit more cloud cover
to the southern FA tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

With more cloud cover across the south and southeast FA on Sunday,
highs will be warmest to the north and northwest. Models seem a
little faster on bringing in some light rain to west central
Minnesota Sunday afternoon. More substantial pcpn moves in by
Sunday Night, with the ECMWF showing the most, but similar to the
GFS in where it falls. By 12z Monday, this would be south of a
line from Lake of the Woods to Buxton to Valley City. Coolest
925mb temps are restricted mainly to west central MN, which
continue into Monday morning as well. Latest WPC snowmap shows
the potential for more than 4 inches from Elbow Lake to Park
Rapids. GEFS ensembles show a potential for even more in this
area, but confidence is not as high in exactly where it could
fall. With our latest snowfall events, narrowing down where the
heavier bands set up have not occurred until closer to the event.
After coordinating with neighboring offices, have elected to hold
off on any headlines for now. Any remaining pcpn should exit off
to the east Monday night.

For Tuesday through Friday...a couple of weak 500 mb short waves
will move across the area once the large upper low has moved east.
This has been a consistent signal in all the models and worthy of
keeping low chance pops for rain showers.  Warming up late week as a
500 mb ridge moves in.  GFS MOS temps for Thu/Fri are showing lower
70s in E ND vs the blended model soln of 65-70.  Either way back to
more normal spring/early May weather.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sat Apr 29 2017

Good VFR flying conditions for the next 24 hours.




LONG TERM...Godon/Riddle
AVIATION...Godon is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.