Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 292036

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
336 PM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

cold front through all but far southeastern fcst area at 20z.
Nothing has formed along it yet though starting to see a few
building TCU on visble sat pic from nr Longville in Cass county MN
into central Ottertail county. West wind at Fergus Falls at 20z
and southwest wind at Wadena. So likely only 2 hours or so of time
left before any chance exits our area. Drier air working in slowly
but surely form the northwest. This drier airmass will be over our
area tonight into Tuesday with much calmer weather. Soundings show
limited moisture avbl for cumulus Tuesday and upstream shows clear
sky in Saskatchewan and western Manitoba under high so full sun on
Tuesday. Temps a few degrees cooler than today but mainly because
starting out a bit cooler in the morning. I did go with patchy fog
overnight in far southeastern fcst area to match neighboring wfos
and this area will see the drier air the latest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

High pressure ridge to drift over the area Tuesday night into
Wednesday with dry weather. Some warm advection mid level clouds
over wrn or cntrl ND late Tues night or Wednesday but think any
precip chance will stay west of our fcst area. A bit warmer on
Thursday as flow becomes southerly.

Thursday night through Monday...

Main challenge through the long term will be the return of
precipitation chances Friday night and lingering throughout the

Upper level ridging will remain in place across the central CONUS
throughout the day on Friday. Should be one last nice day with
mostly sunny skies and high temperatures around normal or just
barely above (low 80s valley westward and mid to upper 70s in the

Heading into the weekend, surface low pressure across the northern
Rockies will deepen and begin to propagate towards the Dakotas.
Additionally, an upper trough will be nearing the area with multiple
waves moving around the base of the trough. These features will
allow precipitation chances to linger across the forecast area for
much of the weekend. The GFS continues to be a little faster with
QPF entering western portions of the region by Friday night with the
ECMWF holding off until a cold front moves through on Saturday.
Therefore, highest PoPs of the period (around 50 percent) look like
a good compromise for Saturday afternoon and lingering into Sunday
as the front slowly moves through.

Temperatures through Saturday will be fairly seasonable with highs
right around the 80 degree mark. Following the cold frontal passage,
things will cool down for Sunday (low to mid 70s) and even a little
more on Monday (upper 60s to low 70s).


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Cold front continues southeast...passing thru BJI at 17z and Fargo
16-17z as well. Band of MVFR cigs nr and just behind front
continues then main clearing and drier airmass behind it nr a
ROX-GFK-VCY line. Expect clearing to progress southeast through
the evening and then clear overnight into Tuesday with a north-
northwest wind 5 to 15 kts.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


SHORT TERM...riddle
LONG TERM...riddle/lee
AVIATION...Riddle is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.