Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 160404

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1004 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Issued at 1004 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

Adjusted the POPs a bit for the current snow band over the central
CWA. Additional light snow will continue to be possible, but there
seems to be a downward trend and think 1 inch is more likely than
2. There have been a few reports on the west edge of the band of
some freezing drizzle, so included that in for a few hours but do
not think we will see much additional impact from it. Think that
showers over western ND should stay to our west, but will keep an
eye on the possibility of some clipping of our southwestern
counties as the activity moves into SD.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

500 mb short wage shown well upstream over east central
Saskatchewan. Weak surface low noted between Dauphin and Yorkton
and this will move southeast tonight into eastern ND. Isentropic
lift does increase tonight over far eastern ND into NW MN mid
level frontogenesis is quite weak. But radar returns and reports
indicate heavier snow upstream and moving into NE ND attm and this
will spread southeast and east thru the evening. So a 1-2 inch
snowfall seems reasonable. Very little fell during the day Friday
so snow totals were cut a bit from prev fcst. Risk of freezing
drizzle while not zero appears rather low as saturated layer is a
bit deeper than preferred with this system and while dry layer
aloft moves in behind this system Saturday morning unsure if
enough lift to create any light precip in the fzdz variety. For
this reason pulled mention of fzdz. Cloudy Saturday most areas,
but some aftn sun psbl in DVL region. Milder with temps in the 20s
to mid 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 333 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

A relatively pleasant winter day is expected Sunday constructed by
light winds, high temperatures in the 20s and 30s, clouds clearing
from west to east, and dry conditions. Dry conditions are expected
despite an upper level trough moving through due to surface high
pressure at the surface and lack of moisture aloft.

On Monday, an upper level jet max pushes its way south of the area
putting North Dakota and northern half of Minnesota into the
cyclonic side and left exit region of the jet. Simultaneously a well
developed mid latitude cyclone will move through central Canada
sweeping an associated cold front/surface trough eastward through
the Northern Plains. Reinforced by the aforementioned jet max, a mid
level short wave will enhance precipitation chances later Monday
within the vicinity of the surface trough. At the moment, it seems
this will happen within the northern half of Minnesota giving
eastern counties snow chances late Monday. Ahead of the surface
trough Monday will be warm temperatures well into the 30s with some
lower 40s into the southern Valley.

Stronger winds of 35-45 kt within the H8-H9 layer, tightening of the
surface pressure gradient, and cold air advection should signal
gusty winds early Tuesday, however there is some degree of
uncertainty of steep lapse rates very near the surface which could
limit mixing of strongest winds to the surface. Best chance of gusty
northwest winds into wind advisory criteria would be mid to late
morning Tuesday before the bulk of strongest winds exits to the
east. Dependent on how much snow is received late Monday will be
chance of blowing and drifting snow potential Tuesday. Winds
gradually ease Tuesday afternoon.

The next system to impact the region looks to be Wednesday into
Thursday. Run to run model guidance still prevents talking of
snowfall placement and amounts, although a favorable low track to
the south of the area would give better chances of snowfall during
this time. Behind the system is advertised to be the intrusion of a
colder airmass which would bring temperatures to near or
below seasonal normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CST Fri Dec 15 2017

All sites MVFR to IFR with visibilities down to 1 to 3 miles
across the central and eastern TAF sites with light snow. Snow at
KDVL has tapered off to flurries and vis is unrestricted.
Visibility will be varying quite a bit as the snow band continues
to move through during the night, with the -SN dissipating by
tomorrow morning. The lower ceilings will hang on a bit longer,
with IFR to MVFR stratus until there are some VFR breaks in the
central and western TAF sites by the end of the period. Winds will
shift around from the southeast to the northwest, but remain below
12 kts.




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