Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KFGF 072050
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
350 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

FAIR SKIES AND MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S WILL
STEADILY GIVE WAY TO A THIN SMOKE/HAZE THIS EVENING...AS A MORE
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW TRACKS SMOKE THAT HAS BEEN POOLING IN
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL DAKOTAS BACK OVER THE RED RIVER BASIN.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...A COOL FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA FROM SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA...PROVIDNG A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WEAK CONVERGENCE
AHEAD OFTHE FRONT SHOULD HELP POOL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE A BIT...
THOUGH A DEEP LOW LEVEL JET TRANSPORT IS NOT EXPECTED. THE 18Z
NAM12 GUIDANCE KEEP MOST SFC BASED FORCING ALG AND WEST OF A
MINOT-BISMARCK LINE THROUGH 03Z... WITH CONVECTION MOVING INTO
EASTERN ND AFTER 06Z...AND ACROSS THE RRV AROUND THE 12Z
TIMEFRAME. A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE IS INDICATED AS THE SYSTEM DRAGS
ACROSS THE AREA EARLY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
APPROACHING 35 KTS AND CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 1000 J/KG. MORNING
CONVECTION SHOULD PRESS ACROSS NORTHEN MN DURING THE FORENOON
...WITH ISOLATED SHOWER STILL POSSIBLE IN THE POSTFRONTAL
AFTERNOON PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

THURSDAY SHOULD BE GENERALLY FAIR AND SEASONABLY MILD...WITH
WINDS QUITE VARIABLE EARLY IN THE DAY AND THEN INCREASING FROM
THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE MID LEVEL FLOW
PATTERN /H7 TO H5/ SHOULD BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AS THE H5 TROF
DIGS INTO THE SOOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. MEANWHILE...LOW LEVEL
FLOW /SFC TO H8/ SHOULD RENAIN SOUTHERLY...WITH CANADIAN WILDFIRE
SMOKE STAYING MAINLY NORTH OF THE CANAM BORDER.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
EVOLUTION OF UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE START
OF THE PERIOD HAS A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT A FEW
SHORT WAVES TO PROPAGATE THRU THE FLOW AND...COMBINED WITH HEATING
AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WILL SEE CHANCES INCREASE FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS EACH DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE
SFC...ALONG WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WILL KEEP
TEMPS ON THE WARMER SIDE...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED IN SE NORTH DAKOTA AND WILL SLOWLY WORK
ITS WAY EAST. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT...ONLY LOOKING AT WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KNOTS. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW AT ALL TAF SITES LATER
IN THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS E...AND RETURN FLOW SETS UP
OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST WITH AN
INCREASE OF MID AND HIGH CLOUD. SOME CU CAN BE EXPECTED WITH SFC
HEATING...BUT DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. HAVE A CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDER
NEAR DVL AFT 06Z WITH APCHING WAVE...BUT DYNAMICS OTHERWISE WEAK FOR
ANY ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/HOPKINS
AVIATION...HOPKINS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.