Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 191204

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
704 AM CDT FRI AUG 19 2016

Issued at 702 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The showers in the far southeastern fcst area have moved out. So
removed any pops in there early this morning. No other changes


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

The main upper level short wave trough is entering central and
eastern Montana early this morning. Southwesterly flow and an area
of showers and t-storms continue moving northeast through the
southeastern half of minnesota with the nw edge of showers over
the far se fcst area. These showers should exit the forecast area
in the 10-14z period. Rain area associated ahead of the Montana
short wave will move southeast with the eastern edge possibly
brushing the far west central/southwestern fcst area this aftn.
Did match up with WFO BIS to include some low pops south of Devils
Lake to the SD border. Otherwise do look for increasing moisture
to drop south and be along the Intl border mid to late aftn and
with it isolated showers. This is depicted by the HRRR. Tonight
will see this thicker cloud deck and cooler air spread south along
with a more north wind. Expect isolated to scattered showers in
this airmass.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

Montana short wave will be in northern South Dakota late tonight
and then move into central Minnesota Saturday. Expecting a second
area of showers with this system mostly west central/central into
northeastern Minnesota. Net result of both of these systems is to
have a low pop for showers for all of the fcst area on Saturday.
Clouds as well as a north wind will keep highs in the 60s.
Clearing will work south Saturday overnight and then mostly sunny
on Sunday. Lows 40s Saturday night and highs upper 60s to mid 70s

Monday to Thursday...Progressive 500mb flow continues for next week
with early week ridging and mid week trough. Max temps will be back
into the mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday with 500mb ridging ahead of
the next short wave and subsequent cool down. The fropa will bring a
chance for a round of showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Cooler behind the front with Wednesday and Thursday
highs in the 70s and lows in the low 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 702 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2016

VFR conditions thru 00z sat. mostly high clouds today with likely
a bit of CU or AC moving in or developing. northwest wind 5 to 15
kts. Thicker cloud cover moves in tonight with MVFR cigs spreading
into NE ND and NW MN overnight.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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