Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 251826
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1226 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

WE WILL LOWER TEMPS A FEW DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN TEMPERATURES AND PCPN CHANCES. MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AND WILL USE BLEND FOR FORECAST.

RADAR RETURNS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO START
THE DAY WITH A DRY FORECAST. DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE A BIG
BEARING ON TEMPERATURES. AVAILABLE IMAGERY SHOWING CLOUD COVER
WELL UP INTO CANADA BUT THIS CAN BE DECEIVING AT NIGHT. MIXING
WILL BE LIGHT BUT THERE IS SOME WARM ADVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
WITH LACK OF SNOW COVER THERE SHOULD BE A MODEST RECOVERY.

IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH NOSE OF 150KT JET MAXIMA WILL BRING
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME -SN TO THE NE FA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT IN OVER DOING QPF WITH LAST SEVERAL EVENTS SO WILL KEEP
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH. WITH LOW NORTH OF FA RESPECTABLE
WARM ADVECTION AND MIXING WILL RESULT IN STEADY OR RISING
TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE.

WITH EXCEPTION OF FAR NE REGION WILL BE DRY AND MILD MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

SHOULD SEE A BREAK FROM THE ALMOST DAILY SHORT WAVE PASSAGES WE
HAVE BEEN SEEING AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST. WELL ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE.

LONG WAVE TROUGH WAS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WHILE A LONG WAVE
RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN CANADA. WESTERN CANADA RIDGE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY
OVER THE PERIOD. EASTERN TROUGH AMPLIFIES A BIT. SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW IN THIS PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
THE GFS WAS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ECMWF WAS
TRENDING SLOWER WHILE THE GFS WAS TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED ALL FOUR DAYS. TEMPS INCREASED A
DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED. TEMP INCREASE TWO OR THREE DEGREES

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

CURRENTLY HAVE A CLEAR HOLE OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITH CLOUDS
ON ALL SIDES. BIGGEST CHALLENGE WILL BE HOW LONG THE CLEAR HOLE
REMAINS. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH A LATE AFTERNOON TIMING FOR BRINGING
THESE CLOUDS BACK INTO KFAR/KGFK. OTHERWISE KEPT THE OTHER TAF SITES
WHERE THEY WERE AT CLOUD HEIGHT WISE ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME RISE
DURING THE DAY. WIND WILL SWITCH AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING
AND THEN INCREASE ALONG AND WEST OF THE RED RIVER VALLEY. WIND COULD
BE A LITTLE GUSTY LATER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND
THEN WILL SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST.
MAY BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT MIXED PCPN OR LIGHT SNOW AROUND BUT ONLY
MENTIONED AT KBJI FOR NOW.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPPES/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON





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