Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 100324
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
924 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

SOME FLURRIES ARE BEING REPORTED AT KMOT AND RUGBY...SO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST WHICH CALLED FOR A LATE EVENING ARRIVAL OF THE
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN FA STILL LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES
NEEDED TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CHALLENGE FOR THE FORECAST TONIGHT WILL BE TIMING...PLACEMENT AND
ACCUMULATION FOR A QUICK MOVING SNOW BAND TO TRAVERSE THE CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM LEADS TO HIGH CONFIDENCE
WITH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE OVER THE
GENERAL AREA FROM CANDO TO DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY TO GWINNER
AND POINTS WEST. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW AREA...MESOSCALE
INDUCED...OF HIGHER SNOWFALL IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE AS
850-700MB FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS STRONG. WHERE THIS BAND MAY SET
UP WILL HAVE TO BE SEEN ONCE REGIONAL MESOSCALE RUNS CAN BE
ASSESSED FOR TRENDS. WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THIS BANDING. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST INTO
THE DVL BSN 06-09Z AND SE ND BY 12Z AND QUICKLY EXIT WEDNESDAY
LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH THIS SYSTEM. HIGHS WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM WEST TO
EAST ONCE AGAIN WITH NEAR 20 IN SE ND AND 5 IN THE LAKE OF THE
WOODS AREA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD
COVER...WITH CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING TEMP TO FALL BELOW ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA
WITH GOOD AGREEMENT ON A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 925MB
TEMPS GRADUALLY FALLING DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS FRIDAY. FRIDAY
HIGHS WILL BE STEADY TO FALLING WITH MORNING MAXIMUMS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS.

FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY...NW MID LEVEL FLOW BRIEFLY GIVES WAY TO
SHORT WAVE RIDGING SATURDAY PRIOR TO NEXT WAVE PASSAGE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. SOME MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH WAVE HOWEVER
THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HAVE BEST POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SHOT OF
MEASURABLE SNOWFALL. COLDEST MORNING IN SOME TIME SATURDAY AM WITH
MODERATING TEMPERATURES BACK TO AVERAGE TO FINISH WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

CEILINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE VFR RANGE AND SHOULD STAY THAT WAY
UNTIL THE SNOW BEGINS TO MOVE IN. EXPECTING THIS TO BE AROUND 09Z
AT KDVL AND AROUND 13Z AT KGFK/KFAR. THE SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT EITHER KTVF OR KBJI. KGFK/KFAR MAY BE MORE ON THE FRINGE SO
VSBYS SHOULD BE BETTER THAN AT KDVL. AS STEADIER SNOW MOVES INTO
THE KDVL AREA THE VSBY WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE IFR RANGE. A GOOD
THING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LACK OF MUCH WIND.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...GODON


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