Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 230607
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MOST OF THE PREVIOUS UPDATES CONTINUE TO BE WORKING OUT...IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES ROSE ABOVE FREEZING WHEN THE VERY LIGHT RAIN
WENT INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY. DID TAKE OUT MOST IF NOT
ALL THE MIXED PRECIP MENTION FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. 00Z MODELS
ARE WEAKER WITH WINDS AND SNOW AMOUNTS...SO UPDATED THE SPS TO
MENTION THE MAIN CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

VERY TRICKY FCST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WILL CONTINUE WITH SPS
MENTIONING SOME LIGHT MIXED PRECIP TONIGHT AND THEN WIND AND SNOW
POTENTIAL LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

WATER VAPOR SHOWS MAIN UPPER LOW WEST OF REGINA SASK AT MID
AFTN...AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST. MAIN SNOWS WITH THIS NORTH OF THE
UPPER LOW AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO CENTRAL MANITOBA
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. NOW JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
THERE ARE SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES AND LIGHT PRECIP MOVING
THROUGH. THESE ARE NOT PICKED UP BY MODELS VERY WELL. ONE AREA OF
PRECIP IS IN SW MANITOBA INTO THE ROLLA AREA WITH LIGHT MIXED
PRECIP. MOST OF IT IS CANADA AND TEMPS ON THE U.S. SIDE JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ANOTHER WAVE WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN AROUND DICKINSON.
UNSURE ABOUT THIS ONE AS SOME MODELS DRY IT UP BUT WOULD THINK
SOME CHANCES OF LIGHT PRECIP MAKING INTO PARTS OF ERN ND LATER
THIS EVE. TEMPS TOO A BIT TRICKY AS IN WARM SECTOR SO TEMP FALL
NOT GREAT BUT THEY COULD DROP INTO THE 30-34 RANGE MAKING FOR SOME
TRICKY PTYPE ISSUES. FOR NOW KEPT THE BROADBRUSH MIXED PRECIP
WORDING AS GIVEN BY TOP DOWN METHOD.  CONFIDENCE IS LOW TONIGHT.
ALSO OVERNIGHT NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG MAY BRUSH
FAR SOUTHEASTERN FCST AREA AND SOME FOG MAY SPREAD INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL AS WELL. 925 MB WINDS DO TURN A BIT
MORE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUGGEST MOST OF IT WILL STAY IN DLH/MPX
FCST AREA.

FOR SUNDAY...NOT EXPECTING TOO MUCH TO START BUT COULD BE SOME
GRUNGE AND FOG IN THE FAR EAST...BUT OVERALL EXPECT THAT VERY
MOIST AIRMASS TO BE EAST OF US WITH OUR AREA IN 850 MB DRY SLOT
SUNDAY MORNING. SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN MANITOBA 15Z
SUN AND THEN EAST ALONG THE BORDER TOWARD WARROAD BY SUN EVE.
WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST AND INCREASE QUICKLY AS LOW PASSES BY
AND SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD SOUTH. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z AND
18Z MODEL RUNS KEEP BACKING OFF ON SNOW AMOUNTS IT SEEMS SOUTH OF
THE BORDER WITH IDEA OF 1-2 NORTH OF HWY 2 (IF THAT) AND THEN VERY
LIGHT AMOUNTS SOUTH OF THERE. WIND WITH SOME FALLING SNOW WILL
RESULT IN LOW VSBYS ISSUES. BUT WITH MODELS DOWNPLAYING SNOW
AMOUNTS NOW UNSURE HOW FAR SOUTH SNOW WILL GET AND SINCE MAIN
THREAT IS 21Z AND AFTER SUNDAY WILL LET SPS RIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

COLD AND WINDY MONDAY WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW EAST AND AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN AREAS EVEN IF JUST A LIGHT SNOW COVER. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN MON NIGHT. NEXT SHORT WAVE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST
INTO THE AREA LATER TUES AFTN/NIGHT. 06Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF QUITE
BULLISH WITH PRECIP BUT 12Z GFS NOW WEAK AGAIN AND 12Z ECMWF
WEAKER BUT STILL SHOWS POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMS WITH SYSTEM MOSTLY
TUES NIGHT.

FOR TUE NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BASICALLY STAY ENTRENCHED IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH THE FIRST EXITING
SYSTEM TUE NIGHT. 12Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME THE WEAKEST MODEL WITH THE
ECMWF/GEM HANGING ONTO PCPN THE LONGEST OR INTO WED MORNING. THEN
THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN HOW FAST THE NEXT SYSTEM SPREADS IN
WED NIGHT. ECMWF KEEPS SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA WHILE THE GFS SPREADS
A SWATH OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FA. HAVE GONE MORE
WITH THE GFS ROUTE FOR NOW BUT KEPT CHANCES QUITE LOW. SFC HIGH
STAYS IN CONTROL KEEPING IT QUIET BUT COLD THU/FRI. COULD BE A
LITTLE MORE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH ON FRI NIGHT OR SAT BUT
AGAIN IT LOOKS PRETTY MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
VALLEY TONIGHT...SLOWLY BECOMING VFR FROM WEST OT EAST BY NOON
SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH THE MAIN CONCERNS WINDS...SNOW
SHOWERS...AND LOWER CIGS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...GODON/RIDDLE
AVIATION...TG






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