Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 262034
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
334 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

WEAK SFC LOW IN WCNTRL ND WITH A TROUGH FROM NEAR WATFORD CITY TO
MINOT TO BRANDON MANITOBA. NOT UNEXPECTEDLY CONVECTING FIRING JUST
BEHIND THE TROUGH AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SO INTO THE EVENING AS
BOUNDARY SLIES SLOWLY EAST. WILL MAINTAIN THE LOW POP IN AREAS
JUST NORTHWEST OF DEVILS LAKE THRU MID EVENING PER 1 PM UPDATE.
SPC ADDED THIS AREA INTO A SLIGHT RISK. EASTWARD ADVANCE WILL BE
VERY LIMITED DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF ANY BOUNDARY.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. HRRR HAS FOLLOWED THIS
TREND ALL DAY AND HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. MONDAY WILL BE UNDER THE
WARM AIR ALOFT AND DRY DURING THE DAY. SFC LOW WILL STRENGTHEN IN
WCNTRL ND MON AFTN AND LOOK FOR STRONG INSTABILITY TO BUILD IN NW
ND DURING THE AFTN JUST NORTH OF THE SFC AND NR THE WARM FRONT
WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM NW ND INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. SPC THINKING
SVR STORMS FIRING ALONG THE LOW AND WARM FRONT MID AFTN MONDAY AND
THEN OVER TIME ORGANIZING AND SPREADING EAST AS A SQUALL LINE INTO
ERN ND BUT MOST LIKELY MID TO LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

UPPER LOW WILL MOVE INTO SE SASK AND MANITOBA TUES-TUES NIGHT
PERIOD. COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH BEHIND THE TSTMS LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY DRY SLOT OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
EAST TUESDAY MIDDAY-AFTN. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. A TAD
COOLER WEDNESDAY AS COOLER AIR ALOFT MOVES OVER AS UPPER LOW MOVES
INTO NW ONTARIO. SW EDGE OF SOME SHOWERS WILL IMPACT FAR NE ND/NW
MN TUES NIGHT INTO A PART OF WED WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOK FOR WINDY
CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WITH WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT BECOMING MORE ENTRENCHED DURING THIS TIME OVER THE N PLAINS. A
GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER PATTEN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORK WEEK...WITH ONLY SOME LOW-END POPS BY THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW TO DROP OUT OF
CANADA. TEMPS OVERALL LOOK TO BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE.
&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO
AROUND 10 KTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE AREA...CURRENTLY EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO REMAIN
WEST OF TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
WILL NOT MENTION ANY FOG EARLY MONDAY...BUT SOME BRIEF PATCHY FOG
COULD NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE



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