Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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248
FXUS63 KFGF 282357
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
657 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Lightning has diminished to only a flash or two every 5 minutes.
This indicates the storms weakening...which given the environment
and loss of heating (with increase cloud cover) makes sense. The
non-supercell tornado parameter has also decreased with low level
CAPE weakening...along with the surface convergence (which was
already weak to begin with).

Rain showers across the northern valley will continue for a few
more hours (given latest hrrr/rap runs)...and increased PoPs to
near 100% since it is raining and is fairly widespread across this
area. Showers are very slow moving given weakly sheared
environment...but rain rates are minimal and would be surprised
if any rainfall amounts over an inch or two more were to happen.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Main forecast challenge will be pcpn chances through the entire
short term forecast. As for late this afternoon and tonight,
visible satellite imagery shows more convective elements to the
clouds along and west of the Red River Valley. This is supported
by the radar, with individual convective cells mainly west of the
Red River Valley. A little more stratiform pcpn is on the MN side
of the river. There was a decent area of stratiform rain working
into central Minnesota, from KSTC to KAXN, but this also appears
to be weakening. Will end up carrying some ISO to SCT pcpn chances
into the evening for most areas. There is a convective line over
the western Dakotas that the models try to bring into the KDVL to
KJMS corridor late tonight. Will keep some pcpn chances in this
area late tonight to cover this potential. If anyone gets any
clearing tonight, the light winds may bring some patchy fog.
Confidence too low at this point to mention, but will pass along
to the next shift to watch. Starting to look like Sunday morning
will start off dry for most areas. By afternoon there may be more
ISO to SCT pcpn chances, but mainly east of the Red River Valley.
These should die off again Sunday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Monday looks like a fairly decent day for the most part. SPC day 3
outlook has portions of the western and central Dakotas in a
slight risk. Models show a sfc low and boundaries in this area by
00Z Tue. Therefore looking at storms firing out west, and working
eastward during the evening and overnight time frame. These could
be strong storms, but will have some time to watch this. By
Tuesday the sfc low is still in this FA, so once again could be
quite a bit of pcpn around.

For Tue night through Sat...500 mb low west of cwa tue afternoon
is progged to open and move east of the region as the extended
period begins...resulting in diminishing pops and sky cover for
wed. northwest flow and cooler air should keep high temps only in
the 60s for wed. high pressure and return flow will result in
quick moderation in time for thu with near average temps
returning by fri. the next wave is likely to approach toward the
weekend...resulting in higher pops returning fri night into sat.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 657 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Expect most sites to become at least MVFR tonight given the
relatively high low level moisture combined with minimal mixing
(winds). Fog and LIFR/IFR conditions are possible...but likelihoodof
occurrence rather low.

&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...Godon
LONG TERM...WJB/Godon
AVIATION...TG



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