Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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919
FXUS63 KFGF 131138
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
538 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Fargo ASOS gusted to 63 mph. Strong surge of cold air advection
efficiently mixing 50+ knot winds to the surface. Issued a high
wind warning for the next couple hours as this surge of cold air
advection is expected to continue moving south/southeast.

Will be assessing other winter impacts and headlines shortly.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Surface low is located near Alexandria (10z) and will continue to
propagate southeast. Associated precipitation is about to exit the
region. Current air/road temperatures suggest mainly rain within
and west of the valley, with freezing rain east of the valley.
With that said, had a situation here at the office in Grand Forks
where the rain occurred with air temperature above freezing while
road temperatures where below freezing. We began with icy
sidewalks, which became wet/slushy. These wet/slushy sidewalks
are now icy as the temperature has quickly dropped into the mid
20s. Latest RAP guidance indicates a push of strong cold air
advection pushing southward through the Red River Valley right
behind the precipitation which is causing any wet/slushy roads to
quickly freeze. Any wet/slushy roads across the southern Red River
valley should quickly freeze this morning as well. The morning
commute will be hazardous. There is another push of cold air
advection down the valley again later this morning and afternoon
with the passage of another upper level wave. This should
reinforce mixing of winds aloft to the surface and continue to
expect wind advisory criteria. The main question will revolve
around any additional winter weather impacts. Still think the
potential exists for snow showers along and east of the valley,
which combined with strong winds may reduce visibility at times.

The next clipper brings snow chances to central/eastern North
Dakota later tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 357 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Upper air pattern continues with the northwest flow aloft. Short
waves continue to roll over the upper ridge over western North
America and drop into the Northern Plains. Also short waves will
drop south from Northern Canada and mainly move east of the forecast
area. However they may affect the far eastern zones. One such short
wave may affect the northeast zones Thu afternoon. Next upper level
trough over the eastern Pacific will approach the forecast area on
Fri. Models generally agree on warm advection precip for Fri and
upper level system to affect the area Sat.

Long wave pattern maintains a long wave ridge over the eastern
Pacific or the West Coast. Long wave trough remains over eastern
Canada and the northeast US. Upper level pattern becomes more zonal
on Mon but does re-amplify somewhat on Tue. GFS and ECMWF were in
reasonable agreement through Mon. The ECMWF becomes a faster
solution thereafter.

High temperatures were increased two to three degrees for Sat and
increased a degree for Mon. Little change to temps for Sun and Tue
from yesterdays forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday)
Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 13 2017

Windy with IFR/MVFR conditions, and possibly freezing drizzle or
very light snow. conditions expected to improve later this
afternoon.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...High Wind Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for NDZ039-053.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030-039-053.

     Wind Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for NDZ006-007-014-
     015-024-026-028-038-049-052-054.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for
     MNZ013>017-022>024-027-028-031-032.

     High Wind Warning until 7 AM CST this morning for MNZ003-029-030-
     040.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 3 PM CST this afternoon for
     MNZ001>004-007-029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JR



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