Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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000
FXUS63 KFGF 232000
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MOST AREAS WITHIN THE WIND ADVISORY CURRENTLY JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...BUT VERY CLOSE AND WILL LET THIS PRODUCT RIDE UNTIL
00Z.

THIS IS A COMPLICATED PATTERN...BUT MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH A GENERAL SOLUTION. UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO APPROACH THE
REGION. THERE ARE MULTIPLE WAVES UPSTREAM THAT WILL AFFECT THE FA
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF THE 700MB WARM AIR ADVECTION
SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS TO THE WEST ARE ASSOCIATED WITH 850MB WARM
AIR ADVECTION...AND AN UPPER WAVE THAT CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ENTIRE AREA OF SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST. THERE IS ANOTHER WAVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST CONUS THAT THE MODELS ARE BRINGING INTO SOUTHERN MN
BY 18Z THUR...AND THEN MERGING WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY
(20Z) ACROSS MONTANA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO SHOWERS EAST OF THE
VALLEY ON THURSDAY...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE EAST (EXACT LOCATION
STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM IN DECENT AGREEMENT). TO
THE WEST OF THIS RAINY AREA...A -30C 500MB COLD POOL WILL
PROPAGATE INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA DURING THE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO WEAK INSTABILITY...AND WITH ANY HEATING
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS SHOULD
GENERALLY BE WEAK...BUT WITH A SFC AND UPPER LEVEL LOW WITHIN THIS
AREA...THE NON-SUPERCELL TORNADO PARAMETER COULD BE
ELEVATED...LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO
(WHEREVER THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT SETS UP NEAR PEAK HEATING).
INTO THUR NIGHT...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
AROUND THE BAUDETTE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS QUICKER
PROPAGATING THE MID-LEVEL LOW EASTWARD...LEADING TO LESS SNOW
POTENTIAL (POSSIBLY UP TO AN INCH).

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO BEGIN THE PERIOD
TRANSITIONS TO LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT SYSTEM SETS UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIP EXIST...BUT
MUCH OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPERATURES STILL SOMEWHAT
DEBATABLE DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL OF CHOICE...BUT CONSENSUS DID
LEAD TO RAISING VALUES A TAD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A MORE
ACTIVE PERIOD...BUT DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT THE EXTENT OF PRECIP. MAIN
SYNOPTIC FEATURES THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONG CLOSED LOW MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE CENTERED
ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE THE CONCERN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT PRECIP WILL EXTEND FARTHER NORTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS ALONG SFC INVERTED TROUGH AND MID-LEVEL THERMAL
GRADIENT. PRIMARY QUESTION IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIP WILL PROGRESS
GIVEN DRY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AROUND STRONG HUDSON BAY
HIGH. OFTENTIMES...THIS DRY AIR CUTS OFF PRECIP OR AT LEAST DELAYS
ITS ONSET. WILL KEEP WITH ALL BLEND POPS WHICH PLACE HIGHEST CHANCES
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ND AND LOW CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. P-TYPE
SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT A RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE AT NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AND AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

FIRST BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS FROM CANDO TO GRAND FORKS/FARGO TO
FERGUS FALLS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AROUND 20 MPH.
CEILINGS ARE MAINLY VFR...BUT THERE ARE SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR POCKETS.
THERE SHOULD BE A SHORT BREAK IN PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
A SECONDARY BAND OF LIGHT RAIN MOVES THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD MVFR
CEILINGS WITH THIS SECOND BAND. BREEZY EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND WILL
CONTINUE...GUSTING AT TIMES TO 30 KTS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
VALLEY. WINDS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT...BUT SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NDZ006-014-015-024-
     026-028-029-038-039-049-052-053.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ003-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/ROGERS
AVIATION...ROGERS




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