Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 031749
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

SEEING A LITTLE MORE CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE THICKER
CLOUDS AROUND THE LAKE OF THE WOODS...SO UPDATED THE CLOUD
FORECAST SLIGHTLY. RAISED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES FROM ROSEAU TO
BEMIDJI AS WELL WHERE 70F IS STILL WITHIN REACH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA AND AN UPPER
TROUGH WAS OVER THE HUDSON BAY/GREAT LAKES AREA. UPPER AIR PATTERN
AMPLIFIES A BIT THROUGH TODAY THEN THE PATTERN SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER RIDGE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
EARLY WED WITH A TROUGH CLOSELY IN TOW WED AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TROUGH NOW EXTENDING FROM UT TO NORTHERN CA WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BY WED.

THE ECMWF APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS. NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTATED UPPER LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA WILL SHIFT EAST
OF THE AREA BY EARLY WED AS UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN CANADA MOVES
EAST. PRECIPITABLE WATER WAS LOW UNDER THE JET BUT WILL SLOWLY
INCREASE TO AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF BY 84 HOURS.

PLENTY OF CLOUDS OVER EASTERN MAN WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES FOR TODAY AND TUE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

THURSDAY TO SUNDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT AT A MORE ACTIVE ZONAL
FLOW FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. UNCERTAINTY
OBVIOUSLY EXISTS IN THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES AND ASSOCIATED
FROPAS...CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS. DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL MAINTAIN
POPS THROUGH EVERY PERIOD AND REFINE AS TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOME
MORE APPARENT. MAX TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER...DAYTIME HIGHS
IN THE 70S ARE EXPECTED AS CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

GRADIENT NW WIND AT KBJI EXPECTED TO BE STRONGEST THIS
AFTERNOON...WHERE CONVECTIVE MIXING SLOWER TO DEVELOP AT OUR VALLEY
AND KDVL LOCATIONS. WINDS TO DIMINISH BY SUNSET. OTHERWISE DRY
COLUMN WILL TRANSLATE TO VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...HOPPES
LONG TERM...JK
AVIATION...WJB



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