Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 211442

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
942 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 942 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Light rain is moving into the Devils Lake region now. This looks
quite a bit worse on radar than it actually is. When it went
through Minot it only produced a hundredth of an inch of rain.
After this passes through clouds should begin to decrease again.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

No significant weather impacts are expected during this period. A
pronounced shortwave trough early this morning seen on water
vapor imagery over the northern Rockies will slide eastward today.
Some showers associated with broad low/mid level warm advection
ahead of the wave are expected with the highest chances across the
north, although will need to monitor the southern extent of any
showers. Most of the moisture will be focused near or above 700
mb, so amounts should be light. Winds will also become breezy, but
modest vertical mixing will limit wind speeds somewhat, and winds
will weaken by late afternoon. The warmest temps today will be
across the west with some 60s possible, with cooler highs closer
to 50 farther east. Clearing is expected later this afternoon and
tonight as weak high pressure builds into the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Relatively zonal flow aloft will continue into the start of the
weekend with 00Z models all indicating a fast-moving embedded
shortwave trough diving southeastward across the region late
Saturday into Sunday. Another seasonably mild day is expected
Saturday ahead of this system with highs in the 50s and 60s. Some
differences still exist with the placement of the compact wave
Saturday Night which will impact precip chances, but currently
have confined chances to along the international border. The
NAM/ECMWF are a bit stronger with the upper wave and surface
reflection with more intense frontogentic forcing north of the
surface low track indicating potential for a band of higher precip
amounts. The NAM keeps much of the precip north of the border and
the ECMWF along the international border. Confidence is relatively
low with placement/magnitude of precip at this point, so will keep
relatively low rain chances for now. With a slightly stronger
system, a period of gustier winds would be possible behind the
wave within the cold advection regime early Sunday before high
pressure quickly builds over the area Sunday Night. Highs Sunday
still should be near seasonal averages.

Monday-Thursday...Models in good agreement depicting little change
to current synoptic pattern. The main unknown at this point is exact
track of upper waves that will affect the region about every other
day. Precipitation that does fall should occur as all
the potential for overall impacts/hazards appears low. Temperatures
near normal values with periodic shower chances the main message.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 655 AM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

A brief period of MVFR ceilings is possible at KBJI this morning
with otherwise mainly VFR conditions and mid/high clouds today.
A few scattered showers will move eastward across the area today,
but timing/coverage is uncertain at TAF sites so have not
mentioned. Winds will be become breezy from the south today,
becoming westerly at KDVL this afternoon before becoming light
tonight across all sites this evening. Some guidance suggests
potential for fog development by early Saturday under high
pressure, especially over NW MN, but confidence too low to
mention right now.




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