Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1028 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

Issued at 1028 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Main challenge this morning is cloud cover and how it will affect
the temperature rise today. There are storms down along the ND/SD
border south of Jamestown, that are not showing a lot of movement
yet. Therefore areas along and south of Interstate 94 will see a
lot more cloud cover today than areas further north. This could
impact the high temperature forecast and hold down highs across
areas along and south of Interstate 94 today. At this point, will
not change things too much, but will look at again with the next
forecast update. As far as pcpn goes, the morning showers and
tstms are really decreasing. Therefore, there should be a break
between this mornings activity and anything that develops this
afternoon. One interesting note is a few weak tstms that developed
around the wind farm along the Griggs/Steele county border.
Usually hard to pick anything out there, but lightning and visible
satellite imagery confirm it as real.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

A couple upper waves seen on water vapor imagery will affect the
region today. SFC-mid level convergence/boundary across the
SE ND will remain mostly stationary or drift south a bit through
the day. Forcing from the first wave will set off isolated/scattered
storms this morning...then a break (late morning/early afternoon)...then
more storms with the second wave (mid-late afternoon). All of this
activity will be confined to SE ND and WC MN. Do not expect
strong storms this morning. A marginal risk for severe storms will
exist with the afternoon activity depending on actual instability
(deep layer forcing is weak). Will provide more details as
confidence increases.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 333 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

Wednesday-Thursday...High pressure will settle across the region
leading to mostly dry weather and seasonable temperatures. There
will remain a slight chance for thunder across the far southern FA
on Wednesday...dependent on the actual position of the low level

Friday-Monday...Models in general agreement this run. Friday
looks to be tranquil as sfc high pressure remains in
control...with light winds and pleasant conditions. For Saturday
thru the end of the period...sfc high pressure retreats with
return flow bringing warmer air to the region. Corresponding upper
ridge amplification indicative of return to much warmer
temps...with highs looking to rise into the upper 80s and low 90s.
Showers or storms can not be ruled out through a
series of impulses propagate through the flow.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Tue Jul 26 2016

VFR conditions through the period. Main hazard will be potential
thunderstorms. Majority of activity expected to be south of
KFAR...but did include VCTS for KFAR during most probable periods.


.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


LONG TERM...TG/Hopkins
AVIATION...TG is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.