Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 261924
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
224 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Forecast challenge for short term will be initiation of shra/tsra
over west central MN tomorrow as models have began showing warm
advection generating some precipitation over Otter Tail co and
surrounding area in the 21Z to 00Z timeframe. 12Z NAM/GEM both
picked up on this while GFS was dry, however hi-res models now
showing POPs in the region as well. Have added POPs using
consshort as guidance. Note this is well ahead primary line of
convection that will come later in the overnight period (see long
term discussion).

For tonight, clear skies but return flow, although light in and
east of the valley, will keep overnight lows much warmer than last
night...with warmest Tue morning temps over the Devils Lake basin
where late night wind speed should be around or just over 10 mph.
Breezy winds then develop along and west of the Red River valley
but at the time looking like they will not meet advisory levels. A
broad low pressure system will begin to move into wrn Dakotas
tomorrow and a tightening pressure gradient over western zones
should bring 25 to 30 mph gusts to western zones.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Tuesday night will see a 500 mb short wave trough and associated
surface front move east through eastern ND and the RRV with the
frontal system moving thru NW MN 12z-18z Wed period.  Expect
initiation along the frontal boundary near Williston-Dickinson area
but convection to grow as it moves east into central ND Tues
evening.  Best instability and bulk shear is to our south in central
SD into Nebraska where SPC has the slight risk.  Low level jet kicks
in overnight increasing moisture into the eastern Dakotas as
thunderstorm area moves east.  However nose of low level jet and
likely better severe chances are a bit south of our area overnight
Tuesday.  Categorical pops for showers/t-storms RRV 06z-12z period
and spreading east Wed morning.  After this system, long range
models are not in the best agreement.  But most do have another 500
mb short wave moving southeast from Alberta and into North
Dakota/southern Manitoba Thursday into Friday with returning the
chances for showers and t-storms.  The upper level trough will
slowly exit this weekend with some lingering low chances for precip
remaining.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Jun 26 2017

VFR with breezy southerly winds beginning to increase tomorrow
morning.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Speicher
LONG TERM...Riddle
AVIATION...Speicher



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