Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 291741
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1241 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING WIDENING CLEARING OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
PORTION OF NORTH DAKOTA...RIGHT AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH. HAVE
REDUCED POPS ELSE WHERE ACROSS THE CWA AND INCREASED TO ABOUT 40S
THE POPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN ND. SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST ND ARE BEGINNING TO THIN AS WELL...HOWEVER TEMPS ARE
STILL A GOOD 5 DEG COOLER SO WILL HOLD OFF ON INCREASING POPS AT
THIS POINT. NO OTHER CHANGES TO IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM FOR THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 952 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
VALLEY DRIFTING OUT OF CWA. ALSO A STRONG STORM SOUTH OF MANITOBA
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NOT EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE CONUS...HOWEVER WILL NEED TO WATCH LOW COUNTY IF IT HOLDS
TOGETHER THAT LONG. MAIN ISSUE TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS. WHILE THE NAM
SEEMS RATHER BULLISH WITH QPFS ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVITY ACROSS
EASTERN SD AND NORTH CENTRAL/EASTERN MN...POPS FOR THE SHARP SFC
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY SEEM REASONABLE. WILL TREND
POPS TOWARD THE NAM SOLUTION FOR THIS AFTN. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS
OF SKY BREAKING UP ACROSS EASTERN ND THIS MORNING TO PROVIDE SOME
SOLAR FOR AFTN CONVECTION AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...HOWEVER
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH SOLAR CAN GET
THROUGH SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO LOW END OF CHANCE CATEGORY. ALSO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER AS PREDOMINANT PTYPE AND CHANGED OVER TO RAIN
SHOWERS WITH ISOLD TSTMS. NO OTHER CHANGES EXPECTED THIS UPDATE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

NO SIG UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. BANDS OF LIGHT RAIN ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE BWP-FFM-PKD-BJI AREA IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE AT THE
AHEAD OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW IN SOUTHWEST MN. MEANWHILE
A WINDSHIFT LINE IS APPARENT ON RADAR IMAGERY ALG A YWG-DVL-BIS
LINE SHOWING THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW EDGING INTO
THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FA. FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER
SHOULD SHIFT TO THIS SYSTEM FOR LATER IN THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TODAY...AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND VERY LIGHT RAIN WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD FROM NORTHWEST MN THROUGH THE FORENOON... WITH SOME
PATCHY SUNSHINE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDAY PERIOD. A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTHWEST MANITOBA WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS
INTO NORTHEAST ND DURING THE FORENOON AND PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OF TWO...WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICKING IN BEHIND
THE FRONT LATER TODAY. AS PER THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEER IS WEAK TODAY AND DEEP MOISTURE ADVECTION
IS TIED UP BY THE MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS...
EXPECTED DAYTIME HEATING AND LOCALLY AVAILABLE MOISTURE LOOK TO
BE SUFFICIENT FOR 1000 TO 2000 J/KG OF CAPE BY MID AFTERNOON... SO
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM IS POSSIBLE. RUC COMPUTED 2 KM LAYERED VGP
APPROACHES 0.2 FROM 18 INTO 21Z WITH LAYERED CAPE EXCEEDING 500
J/KG... ALMOST ENOUGH FOR A BRIEF SPINUP TO OCCUR. CERTAINLY
WORTH PAYING ATTENTION TOO... THUS LATEST SPC DAY1 OUTLOOK
CONTAINS A /SEE TEXT/ OVER OUR AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...EXPECT GENERAL POSTFRONTAL DRYING AND
SEASONABLY COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA. SOME LINGER SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
LATE EVENING OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN LAKES. SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY
AND SEASONABLY WARM ...WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF THE NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE DIGS INTO THE WRN DKTAS
LATE ON SATURDAY WITH DEEP CONVECTION EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO
CENTRAL ND THROUGH MIDNIGHT. BY SUNDAY MORNING MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT INTO ERN ND AND THE RED RIVER VALLEY...
OVERSPREADING NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE FORENOON. WITH
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON PLACING THE SFC TROF ALG THE RRV
AROUND 18Z... WILL EXPECT DEEP CONVECTION AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ALG AND EAST OF THE
RRV DURING THE AFTERNOON... CONSISTENT WITH CURRENT SPC/WPC DAY3
OUTLOOKS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...FLOW BEGINS TO TRANSITION TO MORE
WESTERLY THEN SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS MONDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM DIGS INTO
THE PAC NW. THINK THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS THE NEXT SFC LOW TRAVELS THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
PUTS OUR CWA IN THE PRIME DEFORMATION ZONE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME LINGERING PRECIP ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW ON MONDAY AND EVEN DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
SOME MODELS ARE BREAKING OUT SPITS OF PRECIP IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE LOW POPS THAT ALLBLEND GIVES US
BUT WILL REFINE LATER. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RISE INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONT AND GUST
INTO THE 20-25KT RANGE IN THE NORTH THROUGH 03Z. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD SLOWLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT IN ALL BUT THE FAR EAST/SOUTH. WINDS
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE SAT MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SPEICHER
SHORT TERM...GUST
LONG TERM...GUST/JR
AVIATION...DK





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