Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 280444
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1144 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Water vapor shows that one last vort max rotating quickly south
and southeast around the upper low in northern lower
Michigan...with it at 05z moving thru southern wisconsin. Shear
axis present along the Red River. Drier air aloft working into
parts of NW MN. Satellite has shown this trend but confidence is
low in how cloud patterns turn out over the next 6 to 12 hours.
One cloud band dropped south-southwest into the nrn RRV mid
evening and is moving now more westerly toward Devils Lake and
south to Fargo and Wahpeton. Meanwhile a clearing area is
developing east of this Crookston to Bemidji. Overall 00z NAM has
a right trend of gradually these cloud bands eroding and clearing
out through midday Wed.

UPDATE Issued at 1009 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Dropped frost advisory for western fcst area. Dew points continue
to climb into the lower 40s over eastern ND and one area of clouds
advecting in pretty far west and should keep GFK and FAR much
milder tonight than advertised. Overall all sites 37 and higher in
western fcst area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

500mb ridging and SFC high pressure continue to push into and
over the FA, the stacked low pressure system is slowing moving SE
over the Great Lakes with the clear cloudy line bisecting the FA
from near Pembina to Grand Forks to Elbow Lake. With it the impactful
weather concerns are showers in the east for the rest of the
afternoon, clouds and frost potential overnight. Frost advisory
is in effect for the western areas where best cooling conditions
are more likely to set up, clear skies light winds and low 30 dew
points. Across the valley and NW MN conditions less certain with
model RHs fields suggesting more clouds overnight and dewpoints
have held in the low to mid 40s. Visible satellite imagery does
show some cellular nature to the CU field in Manitoba and Ontario
so do expect some break in the overcast to occur overnight.
Wednesday temps rebound into the 60s with full sun after some
morning CU flatten out in the early afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Quiet fall weather is expected late this week through the weekend
as the cut-off low continues to slowly meander towards the Ohio
Valley and ridging remains over the north central US. The
GFS/ECMWF bring a weak disturbance into the area towards
Friday/Friday Night, but with a dry airmass in place, kept the
area mostly free from precip through Sunday. Temps through the
weekend will remain near to above average with highs reaching the
60s to low 70s and lows in the 40s.

The upper level flow will become more southwesterly early next week
with 12Z deterministic runs showing a shortwave trough ejecting into
the Plains during this time. While this pattern favors increasing
chances for precip early next week, model solutions vary on the
evolution of the upper trough into the Plains with timing also a
question given the downstream ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

As upper low moves away and drier air aloft moves in...will
continue to see eroding of clouds. But one band that has moved
sharply west into ern ND continues to do so and may reach DVL
overnight. Otherwise clear area underneath drying aloft Fosston-
Bemidji area should sink southwest as well. Net result is that
through 15z Wed cloud coverage at any one spot variable and
confidence low. Generally clouds MVFR and low end VFR.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Riddle
SHORT TERM...JK
LONG TERM...Makowski
AVIATION...Riddle


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