Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181734

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Some stronger showers are just to the west of the CWA, so bumped
up POPs for a bit around Valley City and in the northwest. High
res models are a bit more bullish on bringing rain across the
central CWA later this afternoon. Given the trend of showers to
diminish as they move east have not gone completely on board with
this, but have some low POPs into this evening.

UPDATE Issued at 933 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Adjusted cloud cover this morning. High res models have been
trending further south with the possibility of light showers later
this afternoon and evening, which seems reasonable given current
activity over central ND. Moved low POPs further south, but at any
rate rain amounts will be minimal.

UPDATE Issued at 631 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Adjusted cloud cover this morning otherwise no other changes made
to current forecast.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

Temperatures and low end pcpn chances main challenge in the short
term. Short wave lobe over S central Sask to rotate through the FA
today. Convergence along associated weak surface boundary/cold
front will be weak this afternoon with precipitable h2o values at
a half inch or less. Majority of high resolution short range
model and CAM solutions dry however since low pops inherited will
keep going. Thicker clouds dropping south out of canada and cold
advection will keep northern areas about 10 degrees colder than
the south.

Isolated showers possible early this evening otherwise quiet
night. Cold advection will continue however may be off set by
cloud cover which is fairly extensive upstream.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

The remainder of the work week looks dry but cooler. high pressure
will build in and with much cooler thermal profile temperatures
will range at or below normal.

Long wave ridge over western North America and long wave trough over
eastern North America amplify a bit for the first 3 days of the
period then shifts east the last two days. Fast flow aloft will be
over the area for the extended and so short wave timing will be

The ECMWF was faster than the GFS but by the end of the period the
GFS becomes the faster. The ECMWF was trending slower while the GFS
was trending faster. Will blend the models.

High temperatures were decreased a degree or so for Fri, Sun, and
Mon. High temps were increased as degree or so for Sat from
yesterday forecast package.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1234 PM CDT Tue Oct 18 2016

MVFR conditions continue at KDVL, KTVF, and KBJI sites, although
there should be some improvement to VFR later this afternoon. Much
of the mid cloud has been to the north, but there has been some
patchy stratus and mid cloud across the central and southern
forecast area also. Think that the stratus tonight will stay
mostly to the north of the TAF sites, but may have to re-evaluate
as the night goes on. Some scattered light rain showers are
possible but they will be isolated enough to not include in the
TAFs. Winds will remain from the northwest.




SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Hoppes/Voelker
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.