000
FXUS63 KFGF 101743
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1243 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE SOUTHERN FA A
LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED SO WILL UPDATE THE CLOUD FORECAST
TO MATCH. THE NORTH STILL SEEING QUITE A BIT OF SUN BUT THEY TOO
WILL GET MORE CLOUDS THRU THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL LIKELY STEADY
OFF WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING IN NOW BUT THE EAST COULD STILL RISE A
LITTLE MORE. COLD SPOTS IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST HAVE FINALLY
RISEN TOO SO TEMPS PRETTY MUCH WORKING OUT AS EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

THE QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES
REVOLVING AROUND TEMPS AND LOW PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE SFC TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE WEST BEHIND IT. SO FAR FOG HAS REMAINED
PATCHY ACROSS THE NORTHERN VALLEY AS EXPECTED...WITH HALLOCK BRIEFLY
DROPPING DOWN TO 1/4 MILE EARLIER.

FEW CHANGES OVERALL WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. EXPECT
WEAK LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
HOWEVER...WITH WEST WINDS AND A MILD START...ANOTHER VERY PLEASANT MARCH
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH MOST LOCATIONS PEAKING NEAR OR ABOVE 40.
THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE TODAY WITH ONCE AGAIN ONLY SOME MID
TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

A BAND OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOPED FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN DAKOTAS LATE TODAY AND SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO TUESDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS TONIGHT INDICATE
QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR ABOVE THE SFC LAYER OVER THE REGION WITH
COOL NORTHERLY FLOW. THUS...THINK MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL STAY IN
SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE
ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN FARTHEST NORTH WITH THIS BAND...NOW ALSO A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH. MAINTAINED LOW POPS NEAR THE SD BORDER LATE
TONIGHT...AS THIS AREA STANDS THE BEST CHANCE TO BE SKIRTED BY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE BAND. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY
MILD AGAIN...WITH THE WARMEST TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH MORE
CLOUD COVER. WITH MORE MELTING SNOW TODAY...SOME FOG COULD NOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH..GIVEN RATHER LIGHT
WINDS...BUT WILL NOT MENTION AT THIS POINT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH
CLOUD COVER.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON TUESDAY AS THE
NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO AMPLIFY. A 500 MB SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO SWING THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE IN THE
DAY...WITH PERHAPS A BIT OF LIGHT SNOW ENTERING THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN. TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
WILL BE NEAR MID-MARCH AVERAGES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

KEPT SOME LOW POPS IN FOR TUESDAY NIGHT MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...WITH MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE UPPER WAVE. EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE LIGHT AND QUICK TO
MOVE OUT...WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE WAVE. LOW TEMPS COULD BE
PRETTY CHILLY ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA CLOSER TO
THE SFC HIGH...DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...DEPENDING ON WHICH
AREAS CAN REMAIN CLEAR.

RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND THE NEXT SFC TROUGH APPROACHES. THE WARMEST TEMPS
WILL BE WEST OF THE VALLEY...WHERE TEMPS MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE
HIGHER IF WEST WINDS WITH THE SFC TROUGH ARRIVE A BIT EARLIER.

MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE AND
THE APPROACH OF THE LOW-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
UP ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME LOW POPS ACROSS FAR
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITHIN THE STRONGER WARM
ADVECTION ZONE AND CLOSER TO AN UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING
TOWARDS NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AS WEST SFC WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE DIGGING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA. THE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION AND KNOCKING TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE
WEEKEND. THERE COULD BE SOME PRECIP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT
NOT A HUGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL CONTINUE WITH
FAIRLY LOW POPS FOR NOW. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE MOSTLY
BRINGING PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST FOR THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND PICK UP AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAR 10 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH OVERNIGHT...WITH JUST MID LEVEL AC
ENCROACHING UPON TAF SITES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS/GUIDANCE
INDICATE POSSIBILITY OF MARGINALLY VFR CIGS TUESDAY MORNING...IN
CONNECTION WITH PASSING SHORTWAVE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GODON
SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/JR
AVIATION...WJB