000
FXUS63 KFGF 242018
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
318 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS T CHANCES AND TEMPERATURES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT HOWEVER SHOWING DIFFERENCES IN PCPN COVERAGE
LOCATION WITH NEXT SHORT WAVE. AT THIS POINT ECMWF HAVING BEST
HANDLE ON CURRENT RAIN LOCATION SO WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEAR TERM.

SHORTWAVE TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER LOW TONIGHT WHICH WILL REACH
WESTERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES BY MORNING. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
INTERACT WITH SURFACE LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN EASTERN MT TO
INITIATE ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME
CAPPING HOWEVER APPROACHING WAVE SHOULD BREAK CAP WITH STORMS
BECOMING MORE ORGANIZING ALONG MT/DAKOTAS BORDER THIS EVENING
PROPAGATING EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE
AT LEAST FROM MODEL SOLUTIONS HOWEVER ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND CAPE
WITH WAVE TO LIKELY KEEP STORMS GOING AND COULD REMAIN STRONG
LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. TIMING/COVERAGE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT
TRENDS ARE IMPACTS IN OUR FA NEAR OR AFT MIDNIGHT. WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY DID NOT INCREASE POPS AT THIS POINT. HIGH RES RAPID
REFRESH MODEL INDICATING POTENTIAL OF SOME STRONGER WINDS WITH
POSSIBLE BOWING COMPLEX REACHING CENTRAL DAKOTAS AROUND 06Z ALONG
COLD FRONT. SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN PUSHED FAR EAST AS THE
VALLEY SO STORMS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED LATE TONIGHT.

FRONT WILL PUSH AS FAR EAST AS THE VALLEY ON FRIDAY MID DAY WITH
MAIN PCPN THREAT LINGERING IN THE AM. HOW FAR EAST WILL DETERMINE
WHERE STORMS AGAIN COULD INITIATE IN THE AFTERNOON. FAR EASTERN
COULD BE ON THE EDGE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. COLD ADVECTION NOT
SIGNIFICANT AND SURFACE WESTERLY FLOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
RECOVER CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

LOOKS QUIET FRIDAY NIGHT WITH FA IN BETWEEN FRONTAL PASSAGES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

NEXT STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH FA SATURDAY AS UPPER LOW
SAGS INTO THE NORTHERN FA. AIRMASS MORE STABLE WITH THIS BOUNDARY
SO THUNDERSTORMS LESS OF A THREAT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE NORTH AS COLD POOL DESCENDS SOUTHWARD. WITH TIMING OF
THE FRONT SE HALF OF THE FA COULD STILL SEE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO AVERAGE.


SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH FA WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
WELL BLO AVERAGE WITH SOME SPOTTY SHRA ALONG FRONT.

MONDAY TO THURSDAY...MODELS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH 500MB NW
FLOW ALOFT AS WESTERN US UNDER RIDGE AND EASTERN US UNDER THE
TROUGH. THAT GIVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS SFC HIGH PRESSURE WITH
PREDOMINANTLY DRY WEATHER. TEMPS WILL TREND FROM JUST BELOW NORMAL
TO NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S. KEPT THE ISO
POCKETS OF SLIGHT CHC FOR THUNDER WED AND THU AS RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO
PUSH EAST AND HERE MAYBE A POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE ABLE TO RIDE RIDGE
AND BRING PCPN TO THE FA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

ERODING PCPN ALLOWING FOR MIXING TO THE SFC ON BACKSIDE WITH GUSTY
WINDS 20 TO 40KT. IMPACT AT FARGO FOR THE EARLY AFTN. OTHERWISE VFR
W/ SE WINDS 10-15 GUSTS 20-25KTS THRU THE AFTN. ANOTHER ROUND OF
CONVECTION EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING ACROSS DVL AND GFK AND TVF.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...JK/VOELKER
AVIATION...VOELKER