Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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174
FXUS63 KFGF 170044
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
644 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

There continues to be a fair amount of cloud cover over the
southern and eastern portions of the forecast area, but even in
the clear northwestern counties, temps have been staying steady
above zero. The non-diurnal trend of rising temps overnight should
continue as strong warm air advection sets in. Made only a few
minor tweaks to hourly temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Clouds will continue to move north to south through the afternoon,
with temperatures getting above zero in most places, and temperatures
will remain fairly steady throughout the night with lows around
zero. Wednesday will be sunny and significantly warmer, with high
temperatures in the upper 20s across northwest Minnesota and lower
30s into North Dakota. Winds will become breezy tomorrow
afternoon with gusts up to 30 mph. This could lead to some blowing
and drifting snow, and snow on roadways could melt and refreeze,
potentially leading to slippery conditions, mostly in open country.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 305 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

A compact clipper system is expected to stroll across the region
from the northwest Wednesday overnight into Thursday morning
bringing some chance of light precipitation. Better chances of
precipitation reside in the northern Red River Valley into
northwestern Minnesota, but exact track will dictate who sees
light precipitation. Also, with the warmer temperatures expected,
there will be the chance of precipitation being freezing rain or
sleet. Impacts should be minimal as little moisture is expected
with this system.

Upper level ridging continues over the area late this week
continuing warmer than normal temperatures. An upper level wave
moves through this ridge in Canada dragging a cold front over the
Northern Plains. This will halt the warming trend Friday into
Saturday bringing along with it the chance of a wintry mix and even
some rain. Again, the amount of QPF forecast on Friday is light
which may limit impacts. Attention then turns to a developing system
in the Central Plains moving into the Great Lakes Region late this
weekend into early next week. Details are still getting resolved
regarding this system and possibly another, smaller system on its
heels that should influence the region`s weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

Quite a bit more mid and high clouds over all but the northwestern
portions of the forecast area than models would indicate, but all
sites are VFR and will remain so throughout the period. Winds will
increase out of the southwest, first to the 10 to 15 kt range and
then higher with gusts above 20 kts by tomorrow morning.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...Godon/Wilson
LONG TERM...CJ
AVIATION...JR



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