000
FXUS63 KFGF 081233
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
633 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

ADJUSTED CLOUDS AND THEREFORE TEMPS AS THE CLOUD DECK ONLY VERY
SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. THINK THAT THE CLOUDS OVER THE WESTERN
CWA WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BEFORE SLIDING OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TEMPS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL BOTTOM OUT IN
THE NEGATIVE TEENS WHILE THE SOUTHWEST WILL BE IN THE TEENS ABOVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS
MORNING...AND WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THE CENTER WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST INTO IA LATER TODAY. CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE
WESTERN COUNTIES ALTHOUGH LATEST LOOPS SHOW SOME BREAKING UP AS
THE LEADING EDGE MOVES UNDER THE SFC HIGH. RAP SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE CLOUDS SO WILL
FOLLOW THAT AND KEEP CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEST FOR MOST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE CLEARING OUT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SOUTH WINDS AND
WARMER AIR MOVING IN WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP HIGHS IN THE 20S TODAY.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY TONIGHT AS A SFC TROUGH
MOVES INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE
TO PICK UP OVER THE REGION. WILL HAVE TO WATCH CLOUDS BUT THINK
WITH MIXING THAT LOWS TONIGHT WILL NOT FALL MUCH...MAINLY INTO THE
TEENS TO LOW 20S. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY
WITH 850MB TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA GETTING CLOSE TO 10 C. WITH
SOME SUN AND NOT MUCH SNOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...TEMPS
COULD CLIMB INTO THE MID AND UPPER 40S WITH UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. CONTINUED TO KEEP SOME LOW POPS GOING IN
OUR NORTHEAST FOR THIS SHORTWAVE ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL
REMAIN FURTHER NORTH. MONDAY SHOULD BE WARM FOR MOST OF THE DAY
ALTHOUGH SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION TRIES TO SLIP IN FROM THE NORTH.
BETTER COLD AIR ADVECTION HOLDS OFF UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT SO WILL
KEEP HIGHS MONDAY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR NOW. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPS UP
IN THE 20S FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
PROGRESSIVE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. WITHIN THIS
NORTHERN STREAM BRANCH...THE MAIN STORM TRACK WILL REMAIN
NORTH...KEEPING THE AREA PRIMARILY DRY. ON TUESDAY...EXPECT A PERIOD
OF LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION...BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SEASONABLE
STILL. WITH THE SFC HIGH PASSING TO THE NORTHEAST...THE COLD
ADVECTION SHOULD BE BRIEF...WITH LOW-LEVEL WARMING BEGINNING BY
TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...TEMPS COULD EVEN BE A LITTLE TOO COOL ON
WEDNESDAY. THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF BOTH INDICATE ANOTHER SFC LOW PASSING
TO THE NORTH WITH FAVORABLE WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS AND THE THERMAL
RIDGE OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WHILE TIMING IS MORE UNCERTAIN AT
THIS RANGE...CURRENT MODELS WOULD SUGGEST ANOTHER DAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S...WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY WARMER THAN
INDICATED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. A BIT OF PRECIP MAY
BRUSH NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE AREA. TEMPS SHOULD COOL SOMEWHAT FOR
FRIDAY BUT REMAIN SEASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

VFR CIGS OF AROUND 6000-8000 FT CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN TAF SITES BUT HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CLOUDS OUT OF THE EASTERN SITES FOR
NOW...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT. SOME HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BY AFTERNOON AND WINDS WILL PICK
UP OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT AROUND 13 KTS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/MAKOWSKI
AVIATION...JR