Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 181136
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
636 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Forecast is unfolding basically as expected. High pressure
building into the region will continue to slide precip chances to
the southeast (although expect showers/thunder across the southern
FA into much of the morning). Current storms are producing wind
gusts of 35-40 mph and brief heavy rains (possibly small hail).

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Mid-level boundary across the southern FA will be the focus for
thunderstorm chances this morning as an upper wave increases
forcing. Anticipate increasing coverage across SE ND and WC MN
through the morning hours. Severe chances appear limited across
this forecast area as best parameters (MUCAPE, DCAPE) sag
southward (keeping strongest storms to the south). Otherwise, high
pressure builds into the region with thunderstorm chances sagging
south of the forecast area by this afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Wednesday-Thursday...Zonal flow aloft as models indicate a couple
shortwaves to bring thunder chances on Wednesday and again
Thursday night. For Wednesday, severe chances dependent on
location of sfc boundary, which most guidance (except the NAM)
show will be south of the region (will need to monitor). For
Thursday night, strongest forcing and instability appear to be
across western North Dakota weakening as the upper wave propagates
eastward (again, will need to monitor). As of now, severe chances
appear very limited.

Friday-Monday...Early Friday, weak shortwave energy in the area
will bring small chances for showers. The late Friday through
Saturday timeframe will remain summer like with highs in the 80s
and will bring the best chances for showers and thunderstorms over
the weekend, as a stronger shortwave ejects off of the upper low.
There is still uncertainty as to the timing/location of synoptic
feature progression, especially at the surface, but will monitor
as potential for stronger storms exists with this system. After
this system exits, a dry and cooler period moves in for the rest
of the weekend through Monday as high pressure builds in.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Jul 18 2017

Showers and thunder will affect KFAR through mid-morning.
Otherwise, expect VFR conditions for all sites through the period
as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TG
SHORT TERM...TG
LONG TERM...TG/BP
AVIATION...TG



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