Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 171506
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1006 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1006 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY AS THE WEAK
UPPER LOW CONTINUES ON ONLY SLOWLY PULL EASTWARD. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO OUR MN COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING
AND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE CWA BY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO BE PRETTY BULLISH ON BREAKING OUT
PRECIP AS THE TROUGH COMES THROUGH. THERE HAS BEEN A FASTER
TREND...WITH THE RAP BRINGING THE PRECIP INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY
BY THIS EVENING AND LEAVING THE WESTERN COUNTIES DRY. THE WRF AND
NAM ARE NOT QUITE AS FAST...AND GIVEN THE FAIRLY SLOW PROGRESSION
OF THE TROUGH AND THE FACT THAT CONVECTION HAS NOT DEVELOPED
YET...WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE NAM. SPED UP POPS A BIT THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT CONTINUED THE TREND OF KEEPING US
FAIRLY WET THROUGH THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE 500 MB LOW/VORT HAS INCHED EAST AND WAS IN
THE WHEATON MN AREA. GOT CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS
NORTH AND EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM OVER WEST CENTRAL-CENTRAL MN
THEN BACK INTO SOUTHEASTERN ND. EXPECT ONLY SLOW MOVEMENT OF
ENTIRE SYSTEM EAST TODAY. DID UPDATE WESTERN EDGE OF POPS TO
INCREASE A BIT IN FARGO-LISBON AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NRN
RRV. OTHERWISE 06Z MODEL RUNS SHOW MAIN ACTION MID AFTN IN WRN-
CNTRL ND AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS FORMS ESTEVAN SK TO WEST OF
BISMARCK AND STARTS TO MOVE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPPER LEVEL LOW/VORT SEEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE SD/ND BORDER NORTHEAST OF ABERDEEN EARLY THIS MORNING.
CONVECTION WTIH THIS FEATURE WANED A BIT SINCE MIDNIGHT AS CLOUD
TOPS WARMED WITH SOME NEW CONVECTION FIRING A BIT SOUTH BUT RADAR
HAS SHOWN SOME NEW CONVECTION LAST 30 MIN IN FORMAN ND AREA.
OVERALL EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST-NORTHEAST TODAY
WITH MAIN POPS HOLDING IN REGION FROM BEMIDJI-ADA-FARGO-LISBON
AREA SOUTHWARD. DID HOWEVER SPREAD SOME LOWER POPS NORTH AS A FEW
VERY LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON RADAR DRIFTING EAST BTWN GFK-DVL
UP TOWARD WEST OF LANGDON. SHORT RANGE MODELS NOT DOING TOO WELL
WITH PRECIP CURRENTLY THRU TODAY. MOST DRIFT MAIN RAIN A BIT TOO
FAR NORTH TODAY I BELIEVE. PWATS ARE HIGHEST EARLY ON TODAY BUT DO
SLOWLY DECREASE A LITTLE AS DAY PROGRESSES AND SYSTEM SLOWLY MOVES
EAST. OUTSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS QUIET OVER WRN FCST BALANCE OF
TODAY. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ENTERING WRN ND THIS AFTN AND TSTMS
WILL FORM AND SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR WEST OF FCST AREA WITH
MU CAPES IN THE 2-3K J/KG RANGE. SHORT WAVE TROUGH DOES MOVE EAST
AND INTO THE RRV TOWARD 12Z MON AND THEN EAST THRU NW MINNESOTA
MONDAY. KEPT IDEA OF LIKELY POPS SPREADING INTO ERN ND MOSTLY MID
EVENIGN SPREADING INTO MN FCST AREA MONDAY. HPC QPF VALUES HAVE
DROPPED WITH HPC FCSTS OF A GENERAL HALF INCH TO THREE QUARTERS OF
AN INCH.

FOR TEMPS...WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS TODAY NOT EXPECTING
A HUGE RISE WITH MOSTLY 70S THOUGH IF ENOUGH SUN AROUND 80 PSBL IN
THE WEST. 70S AGAIN MONDAY WITH CLOUDS. WITH CLOUDS HOLDING...FOG
LOOKS A BIT LESS CERTAIN AND THUS SCALED BACK A BIT. NARROW
CLEARING ZONE MORE IN ERN WFO BIS FCST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

500 MB TROUGH WILL EXIT ERN MN MONDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWER THREAT
ENDING. THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY. TEMPS HOLDING NR
NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...DURING THIS TIME PERIOD THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
PATTERN WILL BE IN TRANSITION TO A WESTERN US TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE...ALTHOUGH VARIOUS MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN DIFFERENCES IN THE
ORIENTATION OF THIS PATTERN. EITHER WAY...INITIALLY QUIET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO TREND MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE WEEK AS THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OR SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE AREA. THERE IS STILL
RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES...AND
THUS WHEN RAIN CHANCES WILL BE GREATEST. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
WITHIN SEVERAL DEGREES OF AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

TRUE TO FORM RIGHT BEFORE 12Z CIGS CRASHED IN MANY SPOTS TO LOW
END MVFR LEVELS AT FAR-BJI-GFK AREA. A BIT HIGHER CIGS DVL-TVF.
OVERALL EXPECT MVFR CIGS PREDOMINATE THIS MORNING...TRYING TO LIFT
INTO A LOW END VFR CIG THIS AFTN. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THIS
MORNING FAR-BJI REGION. TIMING OF NEXT WAVE OF STORMS TONIGHT IS
A CHALLENGE...BUT MOST MODELS INDICATE BY 01Z DVL AND BY 05Z GFK-
FAR AND A BIT LATER TOWARD BJI. COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL
AND CIGS HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE AT THIS TIME. A LIGHT SOUTHEAST WIND
IN GENERAL TODAY/TONIGHT.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JR
SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE





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