Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 090525

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1125 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

There may be some holes in the clouds north of Walhalla to north
of Winnipeg, otherwise the FA remains mainly cloudy. Still seeing
some flurries or snow showers, and they could be possible anywhere
under the clouds tonight. However, will only mention them for a
few more hours, as they should continue to push southward.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

500 mb short wave is moving into northeastern Minnesota late this
aftn. Snow with this system was mostly along and east of it with
short lived/minimal snow west of it over Baudette/Waskish region.
Clearing area moved south as winds turned northwest and that is
pushing south into the central/southern RRV attm. This clearing
wedge extends to Portage/Brandon Manitoba. Wind shift to the north
and edge of lower clouds into Winnipeg area and that will drop
south into the RRV this evening. Some flurries with this batch of
clouds possible. Winds at 21z near advisory levels at times but
overall just below in most locations.  Expect this to continue.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 322 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Quiet day on Saturday as sfc ridge moves over the area and
northwest winds go light and then southerly later in the day.

Warm advection starts Saturday aftn at 850 mb and reaches the sfc
Sat night so not a big fall in temps. Sunday will see south-
southwest sfc winds south of a southeast moving clipper type low
which will spread now into parts of NW MN Sunday mid aftn/evening.
12z ECMWF remains a tad farther south/west with snow area vs other
models. WPC national guidance indicates a bit farther north/east
soln with axis of 2 inch snows Roseau-Bemidji.

Looking into next week, an active northwest flow pattern aloft and
limited moisture supply for the Northern Plains yields little signal
of any high impact weather events at this time. However there are
still some minor features worth noting. Collaboratively bumped up
winds for Monday as breezy and gusty north winds are expected, and
there are lingering light snowfall chances Monday. Depending on
where snowfall occurs Sunday night into Monday, this could cause
some potential blowing and drifting snow concerns for Monday so will
need to monitor. Cold air advection on Monday will combine with
radiational cooling under high pressure Monday night to force
temperatures plunging down from Sunday to Tuesday. Monday night
looks to be notably chilly with lows looking to be in the single
digits above and below zero for many. A trend of up and down near
normal temperatures will continue through the week, with the next
snow chances developing for mid week through the end of the week sd
several rounds of weaker clipper systems push through.&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1247 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

mix of MVFR and VFR conditions thru tonight with prevalent MVFR
cigs Bemidji area and VFR west into the RRV/E ND. Winds will
be turning northwest and increase in speed thru the aftn/eve with
gusts to 30 kts or so so in E ND/RRV.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1125 PM CST Fri Dec 8 2017

Hard to pick out too much detail in the clouds, so confidence is
low on how much decrease there may be overnight into Saturday
morning. Models also continue to indicate the MVFR layer rising
into the VFR range. Otherwise winds will continue to slowly
decrease overnight and stay on the lower end for most of Saturday.




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