Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180434

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Satellite imagery shows some thicker cirrus starting to spread
back into the FA, so bumped up cloud amounts overnight a bit more.
This, along with the steady winds, will keep temps from falling
too much more.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Another sunny afternoon to give way to another quiet evening and
overnight. South winds stay up some overnight keeping min temps
seasonally warm towards morning with values 45 to 50F. A strong
short wave and low pressure system will pass well north of the
forecast pushing through a dry cool front Wednesday morning. Winds
in its wake winds across the Devils Lake basin and into the
northern valley will become 25 to 35 with gusts to 45mph. As a
result have issued a wind advisory for tomorrow. Fire weather
concerns or impacts are explained below. Max temps tomorrow will
be cooler but still above seasonal normals with highs in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Diminishing winds Wed night in wake of earlier cold fropa as high
pressure builds into central plains. Thu would feature sunny warm
and dry conditions once again with a hint of southerly return flow
by afternoon. Guidance is pretty consistent in keeping a dry
forecast through the end of the week with the next system entering
the picture on Sat. Another cold front would swing through during
the first part of the day but as before, the bulk of any
precipitation is likely to remain southeast of the region as lee
side cyclogenesis occurs over the central CONUS. Very low CAPE
values preclude thunder mention at this time. Another quick moving
short wave increases POP chances for Mon.

Zonal flow and the preponderance of westerly surface winds will keep
temps well above normal for Thu and Fri. Look for temps 15 to 20
degrees above average Thu and Fri with daytime highs in the 70s and
overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. Easing back toward normal over
the weekend, with highs in the 50s early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Winds have lost their gusts as expected, but these will pick back
up again toward morning. It will be quite gusty from mid to late
morning into the afternoon, especially at KDVL. With the strong
low level winds overnight, also kept the mention of LLWS at all
TAF sites. These gusty winds will drop off again by late Wednesday
afternoon into the early evening. Not anticipating any issues with
clouds or vsbys. However, with many recently tilled fields,
blowing dust may be a localized problem, but it is hard to
determine this too far out. This would be the only thing that may
bring on a slight reduction to vsbys.


Issued at 301 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop Wednesday
behind a cold front as strong winds and low relative humidities
values create a potentially dangerous fire weather set up. Westerly
winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 45 mph are possible across the
Devils Lake basin and northern Red River Valley. Afternoon relative
humidities will drop to around 20 percent as the airmass dries
out. As such a fire weather watch will be in effect along and
north of the I94 in ND to HWY 200 corridor in MN. To the south
lesser winds will reduce the threat of critical conditions.


ND...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-054.

     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ006-007-014-

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for NDZ008-016-

MN...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for MNZ001>009-013>017-022-023.

     Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MNZ004-007.



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