Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 240335

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
935 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 933 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Overnight temperature falls will begin to slow down west of the
valley tonight as southerly winds increase...overall keeping temps
around the 0 mark although the central valley will fall a bit well as other areas with light winds. Warmest temps over
northwestern zones where winds are turning southerly. Still
predominantly clear skies through most of the night although hi-
res models are showing snow come into southern valley a bit
quicker than prev fcst suggested. Could see some flurries in Fargo
by noontime.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

Pretty quiet night expected, with not much cloud cover and fairly
light winds. South winds pick up a little on Saturday, with
increasing clouds throughout the day. Models remain in pretty good
agreement with the Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning snow
event, with the main impacts still being further east and south of
this FA. Even so, still expect snow totals of 3 to 5 inches across
the far southern Red River Valley into portions of west central
Minnesota. This is not too much different from last night`s
snowfall. Also similar is the lack of much wind while the snow is

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

The steadiest snow will slowly transition from south to north
Saturday night. Wind speeds still look to remain on the lower
side, so blowing and drifting snow should not be an impact.

Diminishing snow and calmer weather are expected for Sunday as the
low pressure system moves off into the Great Lakes region. Surface
high pressure is expected to build across the Northern Plains Sunday
afternoon. Moderate pressure rises will lead to 10 to 15 knots winds
and wind gusts up to 25 knots. This could lead to a little drifting
snow across northeast North Dakota, but no major impacts are

Zonal flow aloft is expected for the first half of the week. This
will allow for weak shortwave troughs to propagate through the
region on Monday and bring light snow chances along the
international border, though no major winter weather impacts are

By mid week a more robust upper level wave will eject into the
Central Plains and induce cyclogenesis along a weak baroclinic zone
across the Plains. While the brunt of this storm is expected to
remain well to our south, precipitation in the deformation zone may
extend as far north as east central North Dakota and northwest
Minnesota. However, confidence in this snow is low at this time due
to notable difference in deterministic and ensemble guidance.
Upper level ridging will follow the passage of this trough and bring
calmer weather for the rest of the week.

Temperatures for the late weekend and into early next week will
remain normal to just above normal with afternoon highs in the upper
20s to low 30s and overnight lows in the low teens.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Feb 23 2018

VMC through 18Z Saturday. A winter storm will develop over the
plains and lift into Minnesota tonight, bringing another round of
snow to portions of the southern valley and west central
Minnesota. Expect MVFR cigs to spread south to north tomorrow
afternoon, with most confidence of MVFR cigs at FAR-BJI.


ND...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for NDZ052-053.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 3 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ030-040.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ017.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ023-024-027-028-032.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to midnight CST
     Saturday night for MNZ029.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday
     for MNZ031.



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