000
FXUS63 KFGF 030539
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1139 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CANDO TO EAST OF BIS AND WILL CONTINUE
MOVING EAST TONIGHT. FRONT WAS MOVING SOUTHEAST ABOUT 25 KNOTS. MAY
TWEAK POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE NO CHANGE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS
LOCATED NEAR THE UT/CO BORDER. UT TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN SD
TUE MORNING AND SASK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS ND TUE. NOSE OF UPPER
LEVEL JET WILL MOVE TO THE IA/MN BORDER TONIGHT WITH UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION.

COLD FRONT IN WESTERN ND WILL MOVE EAST OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED NEAR AND WEST OF THE FRONT. SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT. CONCURRENTLY
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO EASTERN ND. COMBINATION OF FALLING SNOW
AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY ESPECIALLY OPEN AREAS
FOR TUE.

RADAR INDICATED PRECIP DEVELOPING OVER FAR SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHWEST
SD. PRECIP WAS NOT REACHING THE GROUND IN SD AND MN YET. PRECIP
SHOULD SHIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT. WILL INCREASE LOW TEMPS FOR TONIGHT EXCEPT
FOR THE NORTHWEST ZONES. WILL LEAVE NORTHWEST ZONES ABOUT THE
SAME.

WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOME OF THE NORTHWEST AND SOME
WESTERN ZONES LATER TONIGHT. A WINTER WEATHER WILL GO INTO EFFECT
TUE MORNING OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND A BLIZZARD WATCH FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN ZONES TUE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 701 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE PLAIN
STATES. WINDS WILL UP TONIGHT. TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS FOR A SLOWER
DIURNAL FALL WITH THE WIND. PRECIPITABLE WATER EXPECTED TO RISE TO
AROUND 0.4 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES. WINDS TWEAK DOWN A BIT.
OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANGE AT THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE SNOW/BLOWING SNOW AND STRONG COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AND TUE. MODELS ARE COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM
SOLUTION THAT HAS BEEN FURTHER NORTH WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING. THIS WOULD PLACE THE SOUTHERN RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO WEST CENTRAL MN INTO AN ACCUMULATING SNOW BAND
OF 2-5 INCHES. WINDS LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT A BLIZZARD
WATCH IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY WHERE 2 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW FALLS...
WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING OF TRAVEL BECOMING VERY DIFFICULT HERE
FOR THE TUE MORNING COMMUTE INTO TUE AFTERNOON.

FOR TONIGHT...STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING
WITH BORDERLINE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES IN THE VALLEY WITH
GUSTS TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z...EXPECT
SATURATION AND INCREASING LIFT IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY. LIGHT SNOW
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE FAR SOUTH LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS INCREASING
AFTER 09Z IN THE WEST AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SURGES SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS WITH ABOUT 35-40KT TO MIX
VERY EFFICIENTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE VALLEY IN THE 12Z-18Z
TIMEFRAME. THERE WILL ALSO BE A BAND OF SNOW BEHIND THE SURGING
COLD FRONT...AND EXPECT AN AREA IN THE SOUTHERN VALLEY INTO WC MN
TO GET FROM 2-5 INCHES OF SNOW. THERE SHOULD BE AN AREA IN
PORTIONS OF SARGENT/WILKIN/RICHLAND/WESTERN OTTERTAIL INTO GRANT
COUNTY WHERE SNOW WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR
50 MPH. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WOULD RESULT.
THE MAIN QUESTION IS WHERE DOES SNOW ACCUMULATE...SINCE THERE IS
NO AVAILABLE SNOW TO BLOW AT THIS POINT. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH
FOR A BLIZZARD WATCH IN THIS AREA THOUGH...WITH A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IF THERE IS A SHIFT FURTHER NORTH
AND WEST WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW...THEN THIS COULD PUT FARGO CLOSE
TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AS WELL. FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...THERE
COULD BE SOME BLOWING SNOW...BUT SINCE LITTLE TO NO SNOW WILL FALL
NOT SURE IF CURRENT SNOWPACK WILL BLOW SINCE IT IS VERY COMPACTED
AND MANY FIELDS HAVE NO SNOW TO BLOW. WE WILL ISSUE A WIND
ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FA.

FOR TUE NIGHT...WIND CHILLS WILL FALL INTO THE 25 TO 40 BELOW
RANGE...AND WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED WITH LATER SHIFTS.
FOR NOW...WILL HOLD ON WIND CHILL HEADLINES AND DEAL WITH THE SNOW
AND WIND FIRST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOR WED...A VERY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS 0 TO 5 ABOVE FOR
THE MOST PART. THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTH AS A BAND
OF HIGHER RH WRAPS INTO THE REGION IN CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

ON THU...TEMPS WILL RECOVER AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF THE
REGION.

MAIN CHALLENGE WILL BE TIMING OF ARCTIC BOUNDARY CROSSING THE
FA...STARTING AROUND 00Z IN THE DVL BASIN AND EXITING NEAR BJI AND
FFM AROUND 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING
AND GUSTS EXPECTED IN THE 20 TO 25 KNOT RANGE. AS THE FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA...LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT AND CIGS/VSBY ARE
EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. CONSIDERING THE SPEED OF
THE FRONT CROSSING THE AREA...SOME LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE MAY BE
ENCOUNTERED INVOF THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL SHIFT NW
AND INCREASE FAIRLY RAPIDLY WITH GUSTS APPROACHING THE 35 TO 40 KNOT
RANGE AS STRONG COLD AIR RUSHES IN FROM CANADA. BLOWING SNOW BEHIND
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REDUCE VSBYS...MAINLY IN THE SE PART OF THE
FA...AND MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS ONE TO TWO MILES AT TIMES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON MAR 2 2015

FOG LOOP/SURFACE OBS INDICATED MID LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 7 THOUSAND FT
WAS EAST OF A LINE FROM ROX TO WYNDMERE ND. HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE
LOCATED OVER NORTHEAST ND. POST FRONTAL MVFR CIGS WERE OVER WESTERN
ND. LOW CLOUDS WERE BEING MASKED BY A HIGHER LEVEL CLOUD DECK. CIGS
EXPECTED TO LOWER AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...WIND ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ006-014-015-
     024-026-028-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR NDZ052-053.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ003-
     024-027-028-031-032.

     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM 6 AM CST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON
     FOR MNZ029-030-040.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/DK
AVIATION...HOPPES