000
FXUS63 KFGF 071015
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND WILL USE A BLENDED SOLUTION.

EARLIER THIS MORNING A NARROW BAND OF PRECIPITATION MOVED INTO
WEST CENTRAL MN. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND
RECEIVED REPORTS FROM OTTER TAIL LAW ENFORCEMENT THAT RAIN WAS
FALLING. ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THIS AREA...BUT
AFOREMENTIONED RAIN/FREEZING RAIN BAND HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO WILL CANCEL EARLY.

COLD FRONT AT 09 UTC WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE FROM ROSEAU TO
DETROIT LAKES TO WAHPETON AND IT WILL CONTINUE ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESS EARLY THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE...WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO
THE NORTHWEST...GUSTING AT TIMES FROM 25 TO 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH 15 UTC AS RAP SHOWS 925 HPA FLOW UP TO 35
KTS. THEREAFTER...GRADIENTS SLACKEN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD ACROSS THE REGION. WILL KEEP BLOWING SNOW MENTION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN VALLEY THIS MORNING AS THIS AREA RECEIVED SOME FRESH SNOW
LAST EVENING. HOWEVER...BLOWING NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF AN
ISSUE ELSEWHERE. SOME DRIFTING STILL POSSIBLE THOUGH...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EAST/WEST ROADWAYS.

DESPITE INCREASING SOLAR...TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WELL BELOW FREEZING SO ANY
MELTING AND SUBSEQUENT PUDDLES FROM YESTERDAY WILL ICE OVER AND
RESULT IN SLICK CONDITIONS ON UNTREATED SURFACES.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED NEAR ABERDEEN
SD AROUND 12 UTC SATURDAY...SO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT NOCTURNAL COOLING. LOWS LIKELY TO DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE COLDEST
READINGS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD INTO NORTHWEST IA. WILL START TO SEE
SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES MAINLY WEST OF THE VALLEY WITH THE
925 TO 800 HPA LAYER INCREASING 10 TO 15 DEGREES CELSIUS. HIGHS
ACROSS EASTERN ND TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S...WITH UPPER
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY WILL REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER SURFACE
LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE
NORTHWEST ANGLE. ALL ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE BORDER WITH THE PRIMARY IMPACT BEING A WIND SHIFT
FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER SURFACE
TROUGH PASSAGE. 925 HPA TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE LOW RISE TO
BETWEEN 0 AND +4 C ON SUNDAY...SO EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S WITH EVEN SOME LOWER 40S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NEAR ZONAL FLOW TRANSITIONS TO MORE SPLIT
FLOW ALOFT AND THEN NORTHWESTERLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONTINUED
TO KEEP MONDAY FAIRLY WARM WITH WESTERLY SFC WINDS... ALTHOUGH THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE A BIT FASTER ON BRINGING COLDER AIR DOWN INTO
THE REGION. MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH FOR THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS THE SOUTHERN BRANCH TROUGH DIGS DOWN...BUT THE
NORTHERN BRANCH SHOULD HELP BRING DOWN ANOTHER COLD AIR SURGE FOR
TUESDAY. NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD...
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS ON
VARIOUS SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE BLENDED
SOLUTION OF ONLY SMALL POPS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
AND WILL ADJUST LATER AS NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CST THU MAR 6 2014

MIXED BAG OF CIGS BUT IN GENERAL A PERIOD OF IFR/LOW END MVFR CIGS
BEHIND COLD FRONT ALONG WITH NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND 15 TO 25 KTS.
THESE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO FARGO AND BEMIDJI THRU THE EVE.
CLEARING WILL THEN PROCEED SOUTHEAST FROM SE SASK/FAR SW MANITOBA
FRI MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTN...BUT HOW FAST IS QUESTIONABLE.
ATTM WENT WITH GFS IDEA WITH PRETTY GOOD SURGE OF DRYING MOVING
SOUTHEAST INTO ERN ND 12Z-18Z.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ROGERS
LONG TERM...ROGERS/JR
AVIATION...RIDDLE