


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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175 FXUS63 KFGF 092007 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms are possible, risk level 1 out of 5, in eastern North Dakota tonight, with a small area of 2 out of 5 risk in the Sheyenne Basin. - Severe storms risk level 1 out of 5 will develop Thursday afternoon and night. - Heat risk rises to the moderate category Thursday afternoon, but at this point it looks like heat index values will stay below 100 degrees. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 307 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...Synopsis... Water vapor loop shows shortwave ridging over the Eastern Plains with a few weak embedded vorts moving through. As expected, best moisture and instability are just to our west so far, but no convection so far except way south in western SD. A stronger shortwave will be moving in for Thursday afternoon and evening and pushing a cold front into the forecast area, but much will depend on how tonight plays out. The cold front will push the rest of the way through the forecast area on Friday as upper troughing digs down into the Northern Plains. A bit of a break with northwesterly flow on Saturday but then it switches back to near zonal and then southwesterly late Sunday and into Monday. Another quick moving trough through the Northern Plains on Tuesday and moving east Wednesday with cooler temps and additional thunderstorm chances. ...Severe chances tonight... While plenty of instability available in central ND with temps in the low 90s and dew points in the 70s, it has remained capped so far. Several of the CAMs have the current convection in western SD spreading northeastward into south central ND, which fits current satellite and radar trends. Still not a lot of upper support for development except some very weak vorts that are moving through. However, instability is very strong at over 4000 J/kg and there is at least some deep layer bulk shear around 30 kts in southeastern ND. Probabilities for strong updraft helicities get above 50 percent in south central ND later this evening, and are still around 30 to 40 percent as the convection starts moving into our far southwestern counties. Can`t rule out some isolated large hail and perhaps some scattered damaging winds. Convection should linger after midnight as the moisture plume moves east, but what little shear there was goes downhill and probabilities of strong updraft helicities drop to around 10 percent. ...Severe potential for Thursday... Much will depend on how the convection tonight plays out and if there are any MCVs or lingering outflow boundaries to help focus redevelopment. There is more upper support with a surface boundary moving through, however, much of the shear is behind the cold front and not with the instability plume that will be over the southern Red River Valley. SPC has lowered the risk down to marginal due to the large uncertainty. Updraft helicity probabilities are not very impressive, but some of the machine learning are still highlighting our CWA for severe potential. ...Heat risk on Thursday... The hot temperatures and moist dew points over central ND currently are expected to shift east and be over our CWA tomorrow. Wet bulb globe temps get into the low 80s, and heat risk is up to moderate with a few spots of high. However, there is still some question of if we will get to the heat index values above 100, especially if there is lingering cloud cover from morning convection. Will hold off on any heat headlines for now, but continue to message hot and sticky conditions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Jul 9 2025 VFR conditions for all TAF sites with some cumulus at KBJI and high clouds further west. A few of the models have some MVFR stratus getting into the Red River Valley and MN airports later tonight into tomorrow morning, but may be a bit overdone. Included a MVFR mention at KBJI but kept it out of the other TAF sites. Winds that are gusting above 20 kts at some locations this afternoon will drop into the 10 to 15 kt range this evening, mostly remaining out of the southeast although KDVL could see some southwesterly winds toward the end of the period. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...JR