000
FXUS63 KFGF 202012
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 20 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Precip chances will continue to be the main challenge for the
short term.

Fast west to southwesterly flow will continue through tonight and
tomorrow, with some weak shortwaves moving through. The band of
showers along the I-94 and US10 corridor has finally dissipated.
The early part of the evening should be fairly quiet. However,
the high resolution models as well as most of the global solutions
bring more rain into the northwestern CWA after midnight as
another round of mid level frontogenesis gets going. This rain
should continue for at least part of the morning so kept some low
POPs in the north through 18Z. After that the focus shifts to the
south as an inverted trough extends from eastern SD into southern
MN. With a decent mid level baroclinic zone over our southeastern
counties by late afternoon there could be some precip developing
even as far north as our counties. Continued to keep some high
chance POPs in our far southeast, and included a thunder mention
as there should be some decent MUCAPE.

As for temperatures, incoming cloud cover should help keep
readings in the upper 40s in the north despite current dew points
in the 30s. The southern counties should stay in the 50s overnight
with better moisture. Highs tomorrow will be impacted by clouds,
rain and some weak cold air advection, so kept highs in the 60s to
low 70s a bit cooler than today.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Thursday through Friday...High pressure centered in Central
Manitoba will provide surface easterly flow and dry air to the
northern plains during Thursday. High temperatures will be in the
seasonal 65 to 70 degree range. Some guidance uncertainty enters
the picture for Friday, the constant being a slowdown in
progression of southwest upper trough/low to the east. GFS
continues trend in delaying this progress while ECMWF holds on to
more pcpn more of the time. Even on Saturday there is potential of
some dryslotting which would hold down rain amounts.

Saturday through Tuesday...Looks like FROPA over valley will be
sometime sat night/early Sunday with low nr intl border with
associated 850 mb CAPE, so best shot of any TRW might be there.

Mid high plains high drifts into Central Plains Mon drastically
reducing pcpn chances for our fcst area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Sep 20 2016

Rain band will continue to bring a few showers to near KFAR and
KBJI for the next few hours, but should end by the 21-00Z
timeframe. All sites have VFR ceilings with mostly mid and high
clouds. This trend will continue as most model solutions have the
lower stratus staying to the south through the next 24 hours. Some
rain will move into the northwestern forecast area later tonight
but think at this point that it will be mostly north of KDVL and
will leave out of the TAFs for now. Light and variable winds will
shift around to the north then northeast and pick up by the end of
the period but only to around 8-10 kts or so.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...WJB
AVIATION...JR