Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 241958
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
258 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Main impacts through the short term will be next rain event
Wednesday-Wednesday night. Models in better agreement through
Wednesday with biggest differences in rain potential/placement in
later periods where guidance is all over the place.

Uncertainty continues with TSRA potential remainder of afternoon
into the evening. Surface wind field remains weak with minimal
upper support. There is modest instability/cape and no cap in
place over all but DVL Basin. Cu fields have been developing from
far SE ND into west central and northern MN so have some low pops
in this region as echoes begin to develop. Expect what ever
develops will weaken with loss of heating. Later tonight models
slower in lifting rain band northward with next wave so trimmed
back pops until closer to daybreak. Minimum temperatures should be
similar to last night.

More significant short wave and associated surface low will lift
NE Wednesday into the FA. Arcing band of shra/TSRA will lift
northward through the FA. Enough instability/cape and shear along
with low level convergence for severe storm potential. Feel there
will be enough clouds to hold temperatures into the 70s.

Best rain potential will shift into the northern FA Wednesday
night as low and wave lift north.


.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Low will wobble around the northern forecast area Thursday for
continued rain potential, mainly across the north. Uncertain about
coverage at this point so held with chance pops.

Unsettled weather continues into Friday as southern stream upper
low begins to lift northward.

As southern stream upper low lifts northward into the N central US
rain chances will continue into the holiday weekend. The best
potential looks to be Saturday surrounded by lesser rain chances.
Does not look like a wash for the weekend and any breaks in the
clouds will allow temperatures to recover into mainly the 70s.

Conditions begin to improve Mon-Tue as remnants of the upper low
lifts ne. Temperatures to remain at or a bit above average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 24 2016

Wind speeds look to remain pretty light until Wednesday morning,
when they will take on more of a steady SE direction. Not much for
clouds out there now, but expect at least some mid level clouds to
move in later tonight into early Wednesday. At this point will leave
any clouds in the VFR range. Not a lot of confidence in the pcpn
forecast so have left VCSH for most locations by Wednesday morning.


&&

.FGF Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...Voelker
AVIATION...Godon



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