Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 070550
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER THE ND/MN/MAN
BORDER. A SECONDARY LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN SASK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL ROTATE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA ON SUN.
SURFACE WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDED FROM NEAR HCO TO WEST OF WYNDMERE
ND. MILD AIR REMAINS BEHIND WIND SHIFT AND COLD AIR REMAINS OVER
CENTRAL SASK AND CENTRAL MAN. COLDER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE SUN MORNING.

INCREASED LOWS TEMPS FOR TONIGHT WITH MILD AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS
WEST OF THE WIND SHIFT LINE. NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT THIS UPDATE.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 830 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE. A BAND OF RAIN SHOULD
MOVE INTO NORTHEAST/EASTERN ND FROM 6-9Z AND CHANGE TO SNOW BY 8Z
OR SO. THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS...AND NO CHANGES NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016...CORRECTED

SIGNIFICANT CHALLENGES THIS FORECAST PERIOD MAINLY WITH STRONG
CLIPPER AFFECTING THE FA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN
REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

FOR THIS EVENING WEAK RETURNS CONTINUE IN WARM ADVECTION ZONE SO
HAVE SOME LOW POPS TO COVER BUT OVERALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. WITH WARM
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
MILD AND MAY EVEN WARM YET OVER THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE BLIZZARD POTENTIAL FROM AFTER MIDNIGHT
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

LATER TONIGHT AS CLIPPER APPROACHES SHOULD SEE INITIAL MORE
SIGNIFICANT BAND OF SNOW SPREADING FROM NW TO SE. IN ADDITION
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER THE DVL BASIN AND
COULD SEE GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY MORNING THERE. EXPECT THE STRONGER
WINDS TO SPREAD FROM NW-SE INTO THE VALLEY REGION SUNDAY MORNING.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO INITIATE THROUGH THE VALLEY FROM THE
12-18Z PERIOD AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION ALLOWS FOR EFFICIENT MIXING
OF STRONGER WINDS ALOFT...45-50KTS...TO THE SURFACE AND MORE
UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHERLY FLOW. WE WILL ALSO SEE MORE SNOWFALL IN
WRAP AROUND SPREADING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY. ALL
TOLD EXPECTING GENERAL 2 TO 5 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW WITH HIGHEST
AMOUNTS OVER NW MN. ALTHOUGH CURRENT SNOW COVER NOT LIKELY TO BLOW
BEING SO CRUSTED THE VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG WITH FALLING SNOW
WILL GREATLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO WHITE OUT CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY
IN OPEN AREAS. FOR THIS HAVE ISSUED A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE
DEVILS LAKE BASIN INTO THE VALLEY AND ADJACENT AREAS. ITS
IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HINGE ON WINDS
COMBINED WITH FALLING SNOW AND IT DOES NOT TAKE A LOT OF SNOW FOR
THIS TO HAPPEN. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MORNING WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY.

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
WILL HINGE ON IF SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL. MODELS SOMEWHAT AT ODDS
ON HOW LONG SNOW WILL PERSIST SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED
WARNING THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT THIS CAN BE ADJUSTED IN TIME. MIXING
AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM DROPPING TOO FAR
HOWEVER SINGLE DIGITS EXPECTED MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LINGERING SNOW SHOULD DIMINISH MONDAY MORNING WITH BLUSTERY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO.

A WEAK SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO THE SW HALF OF THE
REGION TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE BELOW AVERAGE.

WITH THE SHARP H5 RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED ALONG THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WE
CAN EXPECT THE MUDDY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO CONTINUE THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD... AND TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A
BIT CLOSER TO LONG TERN NORMALS. IN OTHER WORDS... MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN.

WEDNESDAY...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS BRING ONE FAST SHOT OF LIGHT
SNOW INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY... CURRENTLY SHOWING THIS BAND OF
LIGHT SNOW MAINLY INTO EASTERN ND AND WEST CENTRAL MN... BYPASSING
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AND RED LAKES REGIONS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY SHOULD PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA... ALLOWING FOR CLEARING SKIES AND OUR
COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS. A
SHORTWAVE H5 RIDGE ALOFT AND A WARMING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURE RECOVERY FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED
AT 1132 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. A BAND OF
VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN ND THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON... CROSSING THE RED RIVER AROUND 20-21Z... AND MOVING
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN AFTER. THE COLD PART OF THIS WINTER STORM
SYSTEM WILL DROP INTO EASTERN ND LATER THIS EVENING... BRINGING
MVFR CONDS INTO THE DVL AND MID SHEYENNE BASINS /DVL TO VCY/ BY
06Z... AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDS AFTER 09Z. EXPECT MVFR CONDS INTO
THE RED RIVER CORRIDOR BY 09Z AND LIFR/BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING FROM 12 TO 15Z AND CONTINUING. EAST OF THE RED RIVER
INTO NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MN WILL LIKELY HAVE IFR TO LIFR
CONDS IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW BY 15Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL SET UP FOR TAF SITES WITHIN AND WEST OF THE
RED RIVER VALLEY BY 09Z. THIS WILL BE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN
FOR THE 06Z TAF PERIOD. FROM WEST TO EAST...THE MAIN BAND OF
RAIN/SNOW AND EVENTUALLY SNOW WILL ARRIVE INTO THE SOUTHERN VALLEY
AND MN SITES BY THE 08Z TO 10Z TIME FRAME. WINDS WILL BEGIN
PICKING UP AT DVL BY 09Z...GFK/FAR BY 12Z...AND MN SITES BY 15Z.
WINDS WITHIN AND WEST OF THE VALLEY WILL LIKELY SEE WNW BECOMING
NW WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50KTS...WITH THOSE CONDS PERSISTING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SUNDAY. WINDS AT TVF/BJI WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LESS...WITH HIGHER VSBYS...BUT STILL DANGEROUS FLYING CONDS WITH
PERIODS OF LOW VSBYS AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ039-
     049-052-053.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ008-
     016-027-029-030.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 3 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ006-
     007-014-015-024-026-028-038-054.

MN...BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ002-
     003-027-029-030-040.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ006-009-017-024-032.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ005-008-013>016-022-023-028-031.

     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ001-
     004-007.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...GUST/VOELKER
AVIATION...SPEICHER


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