Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 250908
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
408 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A couple of areas to monitor for convection in the am hours, both
partially associated with low level jets. First area is along the
international border over the nw FA ahead of approaching cold
front. High resolution model and CAM guidance in good agreement in
showing little additional development as wave lifts into Canada
and high amounts of CIN across the fa. Based on model guidance
will keep some low pops along the border. Next area over the
ND/SD/MN border region associated with exit region of stronger low
level jet convergence. With the jet not expected to lift north
will be limiting any pops to the far se corner and current radar
trends are even farther south.

Pops will continue to be a challenge later this afternoon along
ahead of cold front. Current guidance indicating boundary to be
over the far e-se FA at prime heating. CIN will continue to be an
issue for timing of convective initiation. Also, strongest low
level convergence which may be enough to break cap will be over
eastern SD into s MN. So overall not a great deal of confidence on
pop and severe coverage across the south and will maintain chance
pops from late afternoon into the evening. Convection which does
get going should gradually sag southward during the mid/late
evening hours. Temperatures will hinge on the degree of solar,
however with warm column most areas should be able to climb well
into the 80s.


.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Quiet period ahead Wed-Thu as high pressure dominates.
Temperatures look to be right at seasonal averages.

Pattern amplifies slightly with a long wave ridge building a little
over western North America. Long wave trough deepens slightly over
eastern North America. Pattern remains split with northern stream over
north and east Canada and southern stream over southwest Canada and
the northeast US. Transition to more of a northwest flow aloft this
period.

The GFS was a faster solution for most of the period. The ECMWF
became the faster solution near the end of the period. Both the
ECMWF and the GFS have been trending slower and farther south over
the last couple model runs. Cold front is expected to move through
Sun.

Little change to high temperatures on Fri. High temps were decreased
one or two degrees for Sat, Sun, and Mon from yesterdays run.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Mainly VFR conditions with mid level clouds increasing from the
west through the overnight. Expect a cold frontal passage /FROPA/
moving across eastern ND and the northern Red River Valley
through the overnight and early morning...with a band of widely
scattered MVFR CIGS and VSBYS in thunderstorms. Expect this MVFR
band to push across northwest MN during the mid morning hours...
with FROPA winds turning more westerly through the late morning
and early afternoon. Mid to late afternoon should see scattered
strong to severe thunderstorms developing along and east of a BDE-
FSE-FAR line.


&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Voelker
LONG TERM...JH/Voelker
AVIATION...Gust



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