Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 242117

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
317 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

If we get any very light precip over northwestern MN tonight will
be the main challenge for the short term.

Our shortwave trough that brought this morning`s rain has moved
off into MN, with dry conditions and clear skies over large
portions of the forecast area. Another reinforcing shortwave is
digging down out of Canada, and will bring another surge of colder
air into northwestern MN. Some of the models are bringing in some
light precip as this shortwave digs down into the CONUS, mainly
into north central MN but clipping our far northeastern counties.
Model soundings do not have much rising motion or moisture in the
good dendritic growth layer, but the is some very shallow
moisture and weak omega this evening on the KBDE model sounding.
There are a few flurries over far northern Manitoba and some very
light radar returns starting to develop north of Winnipeg but not
much ground truth. Will include some low POPs for drizzle changing
to FZDZ and then -SN for a time this evening, but am not too
crazy about us seeing much. Further south and west, some
increasing mid and high clouds and northwest winds should keep fog
from developing despite lots of melting today.

Tomorrow, conditions should be fairly quiet with northwest flow
aloft and weak surface high pressure moving east. Warm air
advection will kick in late in the day, but with a cooler air mass
to start with think we will stay in the 20s and 30s across much of
the area tomorrow, with some low 40s in the southwest where there
will be the most warm air advection and sunshine.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Rather benign weather is in store for most of the long term period,
with the best chance of precipitation being Monday night as an upper
wave moves across the region.  Light rain may turn to a wintry mix
by Tuesday morning, however warm surfaces from Monday highs in the
mid 40s will limit impacts.  Cooler temps will follow on Tuesday
however most of the area will continue to be above freezing...with
temperatures remaining above normal for the remainder of the work
week. Monday should be the warmest day next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 AM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

Rain has tapered off at KFAR and KBJI finally. All ceilings are
VFR, and clearing has been going on at KDVL and KGFK. The short
range models have been hinting at some MVFR stratus dropping back
down into our northeastern forecast area later tonight as a surge
of cold air comes down. Will include some MVFR ceilings at KBJI
tonight, but will keep KTVF in the VFR category for now. All sites
should be VFR by the end of the period. Northwest winds gusting
above 20 kts at times will decrease down below 12 kts this




LONG TERM...Speicher
AVIATION...JR is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.