Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND

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FXUS63 KFGF 180433
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VERY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO SKY GRIDS WITH THIS UPDATE.
OVERALL...FORECAST LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

FRESHENED UP CLOUD COVER THROUGH TOMORROW BASED ON LATEST MODEL
DATA. NEW NAM MODEL BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MOS GUIDANCE HAVE CLOUDS
LINGERING THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING IN MOST AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED
OVERCAST SKIES A LITTLE TEMPORALLY...CLEARING THINGS OUT DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDE SHORT TERM
CLOUD TRENDS AND TEMPS.

SFC RIDGING WILL DROP SOUTH FROM CANADA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT. LOW CLOUDS
CURRENTLY EXTEND WELL NORTHWARD INTO MANITOBA...WITH SOME EROSION
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA. THE NAM/RAP HAVE BEEN SHOWING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING
TRAPPED UNDER DRYING/SUBSIDING MID LEVELS TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...WHEREAS THE GFS HAS SHOWN DEEPER DIURNAL MIXING AND
QUICKER EROSION OF THE MOIST LAYER BY THIS EVENING. TENDED TO SIDE
WITH THE NAM/RAP...IN KEEPING MORE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. DID BEGIN TO
DECREASE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT CONFIDENT ON TIMING. IT
IS POSSIBLE THAT CLOUDS COULD HANG ON INTO TOMORROW. HAVE GONE
WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD LOW TEMPS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...BUT SOME AREAS COULD REMAIN WARMER/COLDER DEPENDING ON IF
AND WHERE ANY CLEARING OCCURS. RETURN FLOW WILL COMMENCE ON
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY RRV WESTWARD...WITH WARMING 850 MB TEMPS.
STILL EXPECT TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW AVERAGE...DEPENDENT TO
SOME EXTENT ON CLOUD COVER.

THE NEXT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES SATURDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
WINDS/LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION COMBINED WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH
CLOUDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING TOO MUCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

AS THE UPPER WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...AM NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...WITH LOW LEVELS REMAINING
FAIRLY DRY AND THE SFC LOW PASSING NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER OR TWO UP TOWARDS LAKE OF THE WOODS...THOUGH.
ALTHOUGH THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE TRANSLATES SOUTHEASTWARD...NO STRONG COLD ADVECTION IS
EXPECTED IN ITS WAKE DURING THE DAY. WITH A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
WIND AND MILD MORNING TEMPS...TEMPS SHOULD RESPOND NICELY INTO
THE 50S AND 60S...POSSIBLY NEAR 70 IN SE ND.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY...MID/UPPER RIDGING WILL START TO
BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH QUIET WEATHER
CONTINUING. WINDS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE MONDAY UNDER WEAK
SFC HIGH PRESSURE...WITH TEMPS PERHAPS JUST A BIT COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF AK SHIFTS
SLIGHTLY EAST TO THE BC COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA ALSO SHIFTS EAST AND FLATTENS BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD AS SHORT WAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. ECMWF
IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THE A THE GFS AND REMAINS SO THROUGH THE
PERIOD. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE TRENDING FASTER OVER THE LAST
COUPLE MODEL RUNS. WILL PREFER THE ECMWF.

SHORT WAVE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN
CANADA ON WED NIGHT. WITH FASTER TIMING, PRECIP WAS SHIFTED EAST ON
WED NIGHT AND THU.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER HE AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY INCREASED ONE TO THREE DEGREES
ON THU AND FRI AND DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR TUE AND WED FROM
YESTERDAYS RUN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
TOMORROW. HAVE FOLLOWED THE NAM BUFR/MOS FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST. CEILINGS HAVE BOUNCED AROUND 1100-1900 FT IN MOST
AREAS...WITH SOME TERMINALS SEEING CIGS BETWEEN 2000 AND 3500 FEET.
IF ANY OF THE SITES GO BELOW 1000 FT IT WOULD BE KDVL AS THE
LANGDON AWOS HAS DIPPED TO BKN AT 800 FT RECENTLY. CIGS AT MOST
TERMINALS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS INDICATED BY THE NAM.
THE RAP DOES LINGER CLOUDS A BIT LATER HOWEVER.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KNUTSVIG
SHORT TERM...JAM
LONG TERM...HOPPES/JAM
AVIATION...KNUTSVIG






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