Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM
FXUS65 KABQ 201126 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
526 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist with a gradual
lowering of VFR cigs. Areas of rain will move into western New
Mexico overnight and may impact KGUP and KFMN with MVFR conditions,
but kept VFR for now due to lower forecaster confidence.
.PREV DISCUSSION...331 AM MDT TUE SEP 20 2016...
Moisture will make a comeback across portions of southern and
western New Mexico today. Afternoon showers and thunderstorms
will favor the south-central and southwest mountains. Moisture
and the associated showers and storms spread north and east
tonight. Scattered showers and storms will result most areas
Wednesday and Thursday. A Pacific cold front will move through the
state Friday and Friday night, resulting in cooler temperatures
along with chances for showers and storms. A few of these storms
could end up being quite strong Friday afternoon. Cooler and
drier conditions are expected for Saturday.
Low level moisture is surging northward into southeast Arizona
this morning while at the same time high clouds stream
northeastward into western NM. Light rain across southwest AZ
associated with an ely wave that is progged to move north into
southern UT and southwest CO is expected to bypass NM. 00z model
suite has backed off on the timing of convection across western NM
today. Models now favor the south-central mountains for afternoon
convection and then move showers and storms into western and
central NM after around sunset through the overnight hours.
Wednesday still looks like the most active day in terms of
shower/storm coverage. Concerns regarding instability Wednesday
and Thursday afternoons are fading given the progged swly jet
streaks expected to move through each day, providing large scale
lift. Approaching deep upper level closed low and associated
Pacific jet keeps convection going across the northwest half of
the state Thursday night.
Models now progging a 115kt jet over northwest NM Friday
afternoon/evening and combined with a surface cold front bring the
potential for strong to perhaps severe storms to much of the area
Friday afternoon. -16C air and 60kt southwest winds at 500mb make hail
and outflow winds the main concerns.
Surface cold front swings through Friday night. Cooler temps
result across all areas Saturday. Forecaster confidence drops off
substantially beyond Saturday as model solutions diverge as to how
the deep upper low over the eastern Great Basin will evolve. GFS
drops the closed low slowly southward through western NM Sunday
and Sunday night and lifts it back northward early next week.
ECMWF sends the low through wrn NM Sunday but keeps it headed
south and weakens it early next week. Both models, however, generate
showers/storms most areas Sunday afternoon. Canadian model closes
off a circulation over western AZ which is actually quite similar
to the GFSensemble mean. It`s that time of year.
A moistening/cooling trend is underway as moisture from Tropical
Storm Paine advects northeast into the Desert Southwest and New
Mexico. This will be a top-down moistening process, so today will
still be dry in the lowest portion of the boundary layer, though not
as dry as yesterday. Humidity recovery this morning is poor to fair
central and west, and fair to good east. Above normal temperatures
and Haines values of 5 to 6 are forecast this afternoon, with
improved ventilation as stronger southwest winds aloft overtake the
Humidity and chances for wetting rain will trend up Wednesday and
Thursday as atmospheric moisture peaks over the state. Humidity
recovery will be good to excellent areawide by Wednesday night. A
potent upper low will approach from over the Great Basin Thursday
and pull northeast over the central Rockies Friday. Look for
increasing winds and vent rates as stronger southwesterlies move
over the state, with chances for thunderstorms as sufficient
moisture remains from mid week.
The upper low will push a Pacific cold front across the area late
Friday into Saturday, bringing daytime temperatures back to near or
slightly below normal. A second upper low is forecast to close off
over the state late Saturday into Sunday, then meander around NM/AZ
for a couple days bringing renewed chances for wetting rain enhanced
by a backdoor cold front. Forecaster confidence is increasing on a
cooler/wetter end to the weekend and beginning of next week.