Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 211032
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
432 AM MDT SUN AUG 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will develop over the western two-thirds
of New Mexico again this afternoon and will persist into the
evening hours. These storms may produce locally heavy rainfall
through this evening. Rainfall chances will begin to decrease over
the region beginning on Monday afternoon as drier air moves into
New Mexico from the west. A disturbance will move into the state
on Thursday, increasing rain chances again through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Models are in reasonable synoptic agreement through Day 5 with a
weak upper ridge moving into the Four Corners region by Monday
morning, then being displaced as a closed low currently off the
coast of California moves eastward into the Southwest by Tuesday.
Where the models are differing is the amount of dry air that will
be advected in from the west with this trough. The GFS is the
driest with 1000-500mb layer RH values falling into the 50-60%
range by Tuesday, while the ECMWF and the NAM maintain a
noticeably moister layer through the same time period. With this
in mind, the forecast through Tuesday trended overall towards the
GFS with a gradual decrease in rain chances through Tuesday. Storm
motion today will be reasonably slow and with precipitable water
values near normal, localized heavy rainfall will be possible.
With the approach of the trough on Tuesday, storm motion should
increase although PoPs are decreasing.

Wednesday into Thursday, a trough will push through the northern
half of the state an upper ridge builds over the Southeastern
U.S. Rain chances will increase on Thursday as some moisture from
the Gulf of Mexico will begin to push into the area as the trough
moves through.

Through the week, temperatures will remain generally below
climatology.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Pretty quiet late night period across the fcst area overnight,
but it will get much more active toward,and especially during, the
aftn. In fact we should see at least a little more coverage of
showers and storms today versus Sat and still favoring most the
focused across western and central NM with the NW Plateau area
being the least active within this whole area. Heavy rain will
remain a concern, particularly from the Gila region east to the
south central mtns and north into the northern mtns. Tue and
perhaps slightly so Mon we should see a significant downtick in
activity, particularly across west central, central and north
central NM, as the more westerly and somewhat stronger flow aloft
tries to drag in enough drier air in to suppress things somewhat.
Since models have been been somewhat variable in their depictions
still rather recently, confidence for this scenario is just
moderate at this time. Of course if the drying is a little less
extensive, as was the case this past Fri, the reduction in
activity will be less than indicated and it could actually lead to
a little more instability. There also could be a few more so-
called called hybrid, in other words in between fully wet and
fully dry, storms across the nw third or so of the state Tue.

Another back door front will slide down the plains and westward as
well Wed and Wed night. This will increase the potential and
coverage of showers and storms across the east and perhaps to some
degree across central NM. The front should push through the gaps
of the central mountain chain as it pushes westward Wed night or
Thu morn. Thu and Fri should be quite active with western areas
seeing the greatest impact, at least on Thu, as further moisture
is dragged into the area.

Temperatures should largely remain below normal throughout the
week, though Tue may see near to even slightly above normal aftn
temps across the east. Ventilation rates will improve Sun, mainly
east, though some spotty poor ventilation will persist across
portions of west and north NM. Vent rates will continue to increase
Mon and Tue with nearly all areas seeing very good excellent
ventilation Tue. The back door front will lower vent rates on
Wed into the poor to fair category across ne third to half of the
fcst area.  Good or better vent rates should be the rule the rest of
the work week.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR cigs may develop overnight at KLVS, KROW and/or KTCC, but
forecaster confidence too low to include in TAFs. Sunday afternoon
is looking more active than what was observed Saturday afternoon,
with potential for thunderstorm impacts at just about any TAF site
although the best chances will be at KLVS, KSAF, KAEG and KABQ,
and generally ranking in that order. MVFR conditions are generally
forecast with storms Sunday, with short-lived IFR conditions
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  87  59  82  57 /  20  30  40  30
Dulce...........................  80  47  76  41 /  40  40  60  40
Cuba............................  74  50  72  51 /  50  30  60  40
Gallup..........................  80  51  78  47 /  40  40  40  20
El Morro........................  74  49  73  48 /  70  60  50  30
Grants..........................  77  50  76  46 /  50  60  50  30
Quemado.........................  76  52  74  53 /  60  50  60  30
Glenwood........................  87  60  86  61 /  40  40  50  20
Chama...........................  76  44  70  46 /  50  30  60  40
Los Alamos......................  75  51  72  50 /  50  40  60  40
Pecos...........................  74  52  74  53 /  60  50  60  30
Cerro/Questa....................  73  49  72  47 /  40  20  50  20
Red River.......................  64  43  61  42 /  60  30  60  30
Angel Fire......................  69  42  69  36 /  70  30  60  20
Taos............................  76  46  74  44 /  30  20  40  20
Mora............................  70  48  71  51 /  60  40  60  30
Espanola........................  78  55  77  50 /  30  30  40  30
Santa Fe........................  73  54  72  51 /  50  40  50  30
Santa Fe Airport................  79  56  75  53 /  40  30  40  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  79  61  80  59 /  60  50  50  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  82  61  82  61 /  50  40  40  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  83  61  84  56 /  40  40  30  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  82  58  83  57 /  40  40  40  20
Los Lunas.......................  83  60  82  58 /  30  50  40  20
Rio Rancho......................  82  59  83  59 /  50  40  40  20
Socorro.........................  83  61  83  57 /  40  50  40  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  74  54  75  55 /  70  60  60  30
Tijeras.........................  78  57  81  56 /  70  50  60  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  76  54  77  51 /  60  40  50  30
Clines Corners..................  72  52  75  52 /  60  40  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  74  54  76  55 /  60  60  40  30
Carrizozo.......................  78  57  81  57 /  40  30  40  30
Ruidoso.........................  70  52  74  51 /  60  50  50  40
Capulin.........................  75  53  75  52 /  40  20  40  20
Raton...........................  80  52  80  52 /  20  20  30  20
Springer........................  78  52  81  51 /  30  10  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  74  50  77  51 /  40  30  40  30
Clayton.........................  82  57  82  60 /  10  10  20  20
Roy.............................  80  55  80  58 /  30  10  30  30
Conchas.........................  81  63  85  62 /  30  20  30  20
Santa Rosa......................  83  62  87  64 /  30  20  30  30
Tucumcari.......................  85  61  87  67 /  30  30  20  30
Clovis..........................  84  59  84  58 /  20  20  20  20
Portales........................  85  60  84  63 /  20  10  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  81  61  83  62 /  40  30  30  20
Roswell.........................  83  65  85  65 /  40  20  30  30
Picacho.........................  77  56  79  53 /  40  20  40  30
Elk.............................  71  55  74  55 /  50  30  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

54


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