Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 230527 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

While the dryline had previously pushed back into Texas earlier
this afternoon, the thunderstorms in west Texas have hurled out an
easterly wind that could shove the dryline back into New Mexico
over the next few hours. Currently, batches of low clouds are
rapidly expanding over the panhandle of west Texas and racing
toward New Mexico. These are now expected to impact KCAO to KTCC
to KCVS/KCVN before 23/0900UTC and perhaps KROW before 23/1200UTC.
The higher resolution models are indicating some low cloud
development near KROW, but as for locations farther north, this
short term forecast is largely driven by current trends since the
models are handling the ongoing scenario so poorly. Into the
daytime Monday, the dryline will mix back east into Texas in the
late morning, leading to another dry, warm, and breezy to windy
day over New Mexico.



Southwest winds will be breezy to windy each day along and east of
the central mountain chain through Thursday, and gusty but not
quite as strong farther west. Low humidities will accompany the
stronger winds in the east as well, with daily rounds of fire
weather concerns. A weakening upper level low pressure system will
cross the four corners area from the southwest, before passing eastward
across southern Colorado during the mid to latter half of the
week. It will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly to northern areas, and cause high temperatures to trend
gradually below normal areawide.


A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer a
persistent area of stronger winds aloft over NM from the southwest
through Wednesday night. Some of the strongest winds should cross
Wednesday afternoon, when gusts may reach the 40 to 50 mph range
along and northeast of the S central mountains. Models show a
decent shortwave pinching off a closed low when it rounds the base
of the upper trough over S CA, and this is the feature that will
bring a chance of showers and storms mainly to N NM during the
mid to latter half of the week. The system won`t bring much
moisture with it, and NM will be on the dry side of the low, so
not much precip is expected. Spotty wetting precip chances should
favor the northern mountains near the CO border.



Dewpoints have not yet dropped as far as yesterdays readings, likely
because the mid level dry slot is not as strong as yesterday.
Nonetheless, some sub-15 percent humidities have been noted across
mainly central areas. The dryline is pushing eastward into Texas as
of this writing, so chances for precipitation look to be rapidly
waning for the rest of the day.

The dry slot looks be a semi-permanent feature over NM through at
least Wednesday as a Pacific low remains over the NW ConUS and weak
shortwaves rotate around it but remain north of NM. The dry slot
will vary in strength from day-to-day, and these nuances will
determine how far below dewpoint guidance we may need to go in the
forecast. For example, Monday`s dry slot does not appear to be as
strong as Tuesday`s, thus hedged dewpoints closer to guidance
on Monday than on Tuesday.

Though temperatures will be a few degrees above normal on Monday
across the plains, haines indices will be 6, and winds will be
sufficient for critical criteria, will remain steadfast and not
issue a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon. Will allow fuels to
dry out one more day after the rainfall last evening. Given that
humidities are still expected to drop into the single digits across
the east Monday afternoon, it should not take very long for
evapotranspiration to occur and dry out the fine fuels, even if some
green up has occurred.

Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday for the plains remains
intact. Humidities will drop into the single digits for several
hours and winds will be a bit stronger than on Monday overall.
Widespread 6 haines remain a good bet as well. Will have to monitor
trends for Zone 107. This area has been left out of the watch due to
at or below normal forecast temperatures, but may need to be
included if temps increase.

Very little changes from Tuesday to Wednesday, thus it is likely a
Fire Weather Watch will be needed for the plains Wed aftn and
evening. Strong winds, several hours of single digit humidities and
high haines will be on tap. Temperatures may be a degree or two
cooler than Tuesday overall however, and some modest mid level
moisture may work into northwest NM, perhaps allowing for a few
more clouds and virga.

A shortwave trough rounding the main Pacific low will dive into
Great Basin Tue/Wed and cross northern NM on Thursday. This will
bring a chance for some light precip across northern NM, but the dry
slot looks to remain over southern portions of the area.
Temperatures will cool around 5 degrees areawide from Wednesday`s
readings however. Thus, nearly all areas will be below normal. But
strong winds, low humidity and high haines will persist at least
across the east central plains.

Temperatures looks to largely remain below normal on Friday and
perhaps on Saturday as well. Models continue to show some small
chances of precip across the north, with dry conditions south of I-
40. Winds look to be lighter though.

Ventilation is expected to not be a concern over the next several
days due to high mixing heights and stronger transport winds.



Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.


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