


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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959 FXUS64 KAMA 252310 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 610 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 136 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025 -Thunderstorms will be possible throughout the coming week. -Repeat rounds of thunderstorms with heavy rain will result in flooding chances, especially for the western Panhandles. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Thursday night) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Light showers continue across the western an towards the central Panhandles this afternoon and evening. We may get enough instability for some pop up storms as well. Shear is very weak aloft so, storms are not expected to be severe, and will likely track to the north northeast with the mean flow. As the high pressure over the Tennessee Valley continues to shift east the flow will transition more southwesterly aloft. With that shift tomorrow we can expect an uptick in thunderstorm coverage to be more scattered, and there may even be a shortwave to help with some lift in the afternoon. Right now we`re not outlooked for any severe weather and given the warmer air aloft as well as the very moist environment, it just doesn`t seem likely for damaging winds or large hail, despite ML CAPE values in the 1000-2500 J/kg range. Will note that deterministic models are much more bullish for scattered to widespread storms tomorrow, but high res models, while do indicate some storms, are more limited in coverage and time is about 4 to 8 pm for storms. It will be interesting to see how much the shortwave helps tomorrow with the coverage. Weber && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Friday and Saturday flow will become more disorganized as a broad scale high attempts to develop. Right now pops are below 20 percent, so no mention of thunderstorm in the forecast. However, will not rule out a subtle wave that moves across the Panhandle and helps to trigger some afternoon showers/storms. We can just convect as well given daytime heating. Come Saturday night the high looks to be set up so that we`ll get ample return flow from the south, and we may get some scattered showers and storms across the Panhandles. NBM is not too excited on the pops at this moment, but some deterministic models certainly favoring the moisture return. This moisture return will continue Sunday through Tuesday across the Panhandles, and daily showers and storms are looking pretty favorable at this time. Weber && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 605 PM CDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Lots of atmospheric moisture remains in place over the combined Panhandles. This leaves some potential for showers and thunderstorms through the TAF period. The lack of upper level lift will keep activity very spotty and isolated with low confidence in timing. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with southerly winds around 15 kts or less outside of shower and thunderstorm activity. 36 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...89 LONG TERM....89 AVIATION...36