000
FXUS64 KAMA 181746
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017

.AVIATION...
18z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected through period. Winds will be southerly at
10-15 knots this afternoon decreasing to 5-10 knots overnight.
Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm or two mainly in the
western Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. Confidence not high
enough to include TS mention in TAFs at this time, but
amendments may be needed based on radar/obs/sat trends.

Ward

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 316 AM CDT Fri Aug 18 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper level short wave trough moving into the northwest CWA early
this morning will slowly move southeast across the Panhandles today.
This wave should help to spark showers and thunderstorms as it moves
southeast.

On Saturday, the center of the upper level ridge will be over
southeast Texas. This will put the Panhandles in a weak west to
southwest flow aloft which may bring some mountain convection this
way.

The upper level ridge will shift to the southeast U.S. on Sunday.
Meanwhile, an upper level low will be found near southern California.
Another upper level low will get caught up in the south to southwest
flow aloft over Arizona. This upper level low is expected to move
northeast across the 4 corners region by Sunday night and then into
the central plains by late afternoon on Monday. As this upper level
low moves northeast through the southwest U.S. it should bring a
chance of showers and thunderstorms to our region as it teams up
with the subtropical moisture.

A northwest flow aloft will then set up by Tuesday and this will help
to drive a cold front through the region which will be another focus
for showers and thunderstorms.

The return surface flow behind the cold front should bring moisture
back into the region for Wednesday and Thursday. This moisture
should combine with instability and shear to help produce more
showers and thunderstorms.

High temperatures should be around normal through early next week,
then they should go back below normal by mid next week.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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