000
FXUS64 KAMA 061733
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1133 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013

.AVIATION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW SCT TO BKN
STRATO CU ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. THIS WILL CONT
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE BKN TO OVC CIGS RETURN TONIGHT. CIG HEIGHTS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THE UPPER END OF THE MVFR RANGE UNTIL SAT MORNING
WHEN DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA AND CLOUDS DISSIPATE. ALTHOUGH NOT
PART OF A TAF FORECAST PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT TEMPS AT DAYBREAK SAT
WILL BE AROUND ZERO. THIS COULD IMPACT AVIATION GROUND OPERATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 519 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013/

AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
A COLD AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY AND
TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRACK EAST TODAY WITH THE UPPER FLOW
BECOMING ZONAL TO SOUTHWESTERLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH
CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT VFR CEILINGS BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY...FEEL
THAT GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY
ALONG WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW FLURRIES. LIGHT NORTHERLY
TO EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS CAN BE EXPECTED.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 317 AM CST FRI DEC 6 2013/

DISCUSSION...
LAST BIT OF ORGANIZED SNOW IS LEAVING THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE.
WE WILL DROP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WITH THIS ISSUANCE OF THE
FORECAST. FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON AND OFF THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS A LOT OF THE AREA. IT WON/T TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE SOME
FLURRIES OUT OF THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS...ESPECIALLY WITH A LITTLE
LIFT MOVING ACROSS IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

WINDS WILL MAINLY REMAIN UNDER 10 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP ABOVE 10 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TOWARD SUNRISE SATURDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. WE MAY NEED A
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THIS ARCTIC AIR MASS DOES NOT MODIFY UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF ANOTHER SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR. NOT SURE IF
THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL HAVE
MUCH MODIFICATION...ESPECIALLY IF THIS FRONT MOVES FASTER THAN WHAT
WE ARE THINKING. FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE GFS TIMING WHICH IS THE
FASTEST RIGHT NOW. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FRONT ON SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE CHANCES LOOK TO BE DIMINISHING.

THIS NEW ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BE JUST AS COLD IF NOT A LITTLE
COLDER THAN OUR CURRENT ONE.  BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE AIR MASS WILL
MODIFY QUICKER AS A NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ENCOURAGES A LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING DOWNSLOPE
SOUTHWEST WINDS BACK INTO THE AREA BY TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THURSDAY.

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS EITHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20
PERCENT AND/OR 20-FOOT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 15 MPH.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

07/05