Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 261113 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
613 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND FROM GENERALLY AN EASTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH
MUCH OF THIS FORECAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...

A SEASONAL POLEWARD SHIFT OF STRONGER MEAN WESTERLY FLOW IS
UNDERWAY AND THESE CHANGES ARE MOST EVIDENT DURING THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ONE MORE IN A SERIES OF BROAD AND FAIRLY DEEP TROUGHS WILL
TRAVERSE THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK BRINGING HIGH PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES. UNTIL THEN WEAKLY PERTURBED WESTERLIES WILL BE
PRESENT OVER US WITH A GRADUAL TENDENCY FOR MEAN HEIGHT RISES AND
RESULTANT WARMER TEMPERATURES EVEN ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMALS FOR A
CHANGE.

ONE SUCH WAVE IS EVIDENT OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
MORNING IN WATER VAPOR AND SHORT TERM GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH ITS PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PANHANDLES DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SHOWS A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT TEMPERED BY CONVECTIVE
OVERTURNING FROM LARGE COMPLEX YESTERDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. 00Z
SOUNDING FROM FORT WORTH SHOWS DRY LOW LEVELS WITH JUST A SHALLOW
NEAR SURFACE MOIST LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...TRAJECTORIES SHOULD BE FROM
FURTHER WEST WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TODAY HAVE SOME CONDITIONALITY. EVEN WITH WEAK ASCENT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE...BACKGROUND MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
SIGNIFICANT AT AROUND 5 DM PER 12 HOURS. FURTHERMORE...ASCENT FROM
THE WEAK WAVE MAY BE MISALIGNED WITH WHEN BEST MOISTURE RETURN
AND MOST SIGNIFICANT SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OCCUR. FOR THIS
REASON HAVE LOWERED PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES AND CONFINED THEM TO
ROUGHLY THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES FROM MID/LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME. IF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM THEY COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGING WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY
COINCIDENT WITH ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FOR
HIGHS FOR MOST OF THE AREA. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS COMMENCE ON
WEDNESDAY EVENING SIGNALING THE APPROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH. GRADUALLY LOWERING SURFACE PRESSURES AND STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR
DEEP ANOMALOUS MOISTURE RETURN ONCE AGAIN WITH PWAT VALUES RISING
AROUND THE 75TH PERCENTILE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE MARKEDLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A LEAD WAVE MOVES THROUGH.
WEAKENING TROUGH AND DEAMPLIFYING PATTERN MAY BRING A SECOND ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION MAY LINGER
INTO SATURDAY AS TROUGH IS SLOW TO MOVE EAST. RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS
IN BRINGING A DRIER PATTERN STARTING SUNDAY AND PERSISTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

BRB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/17




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