Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44

FXUS64 KAMA 180539 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1239 AM CDT Wed Oct 18 2017

For the 06Z TAFs, VFR conditions are expected to continue at all
terminal sites through late Wednesday evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 625 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

Good flying weather continues for the next 24 hours.  No clouds
or visibility restrictions expected.  Light southwest surface
winds will continue at AMA.  Earlier concerns for low-level wind
shear at AMA appear to be less at this time, and will omit from
this forecast.  Will monitor closely and amend if necessary.  At
northern terminals, light southwest surface winds will shift to
light northwest after 12z Wednesday and then to east by 18z as a
minor perturbation aloft disrupts the surface pressure pattern along
the otherwise nearly-stationary low pressure trof over eastern
New Mexico.  VFR forecast continues next 24 hours.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 PM CDT Tue Oct 17 2017/

DISCUSSION...Quiescent weather pattern is in store for the
combined Panhandles through early Thursday as a ridge traverses
the area through that period. A shortwave trough is expected to
approach the southern high plains late Thursday and early Friday
morning, with latest guidance runs suggesting that meager return
moisture flow could occur with dewpoints in the lower to mid 50s.
Thunderstorms may form across eastern NM and move east to
northeast towards the area early Friday, the storms will have
meager elevated CAPE values btwn AOB 300 J/kg to work with to
sustain themselves. As a result, have a mentionable slight chance
of showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern Texas
Panhandle during that period. This trough will quickly sweep
across the Panhandles Friday and Saturday, bringing with it some
lift and continued southerly flow at the surface. The best chance
for shower and thunderstorm development is across the eastern two
rows of counties in the combined Panhandles, with 500 to 1000 J/kg
of MLCAPE. Limiting factor for organization both days will be
0-6km bulk shear values around 20 to 30 kts and a possible
inversion aloft at the H7 level. After Saturday, another ridge
will build in from the west and bring dry conditions to the region
through early next week.


AVIATION...Previous Discussion...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will
prevail at all TAF sites with winds 6 to 12kts. LLWS will still be
possible from 05z-13z tonight at KAMA. WS is marginal but right
around 30kts from sfc to 700ft AGL.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


$$ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.