Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 070528 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1128 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016

For the 06Z TAFs, the next cold front will move across the terminal
sites Wednesday morning into early afternoon with gusty north winds
behind its passage. Some concern for lower clouds Wednesday evening
so have introduced a sct MVFR deck for this fcst cycle.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 551 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

For the 00Z TAFs, periods of mid and high level cloudiness are
expected for this fcst cycle. However, no precipitation is
anticipated. The next cold front is slated to move across all
terminal sites Wednesday morning into early afternoon with gusty
north winds behind its passage.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 415 PM CST Tue Dec 6 2016/

Latest upper level analysis places broad cyclonic flow over the
western and central CONUS. The nose of a strengthening mid level jet
is entering northwestern NM. At the surface...high pressure has
settled over the northeastern Panhandle into northeastern OK and
south central KS. This has kept winds on the low side generally out
of the southeast. Dew point have been much lower today compared to guidance
with most of the area in the low single digits. Clouds cover has
also kept temperatures a bit cooler with 30s across the Panhandles
as of 21z.

Going into tomorrow...the aforementioned mid level jet and trough
axis will cross the area with a very strong arctic cold front in its
wake. Most of the Panhandles will be in the right exit region of the
jet leading to a unfavorable ageostrophic flow for upper level
ascent...with more subsidence/drying expected in the mid and upper
levels. At the surface...very strong cold air advection will lead to
windy conditions especially Wednesday afternoon. Forecast
soundings hint at the possibility of brief light drizzle and/or
snow flurries late Wednesday across the OK Panhandle and very
early Thursday across the Texas Panhandle as the very cold air
starts advecting in on northeasterly winds. The NAM time lagged
profiles seem to key in on the upslope winds leading to flurries
as low levels become saturated from 870mb to 800mb with steep
lapse rates and temperatures dropping to around -10 deg celsius
within the saturated level. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle
could see a light dusting of snow while areas further south might
see a few flakes but not expecting any accumulations.

High pressure will start to build in early Thursday with decreasing
winds and very cold conditions during the morning. Low temperatures
will range from high single digits in western OK Panhandle to high
teens in the southeastern TX Panhandle. Highs on Thursday will
only be in the high 20s to mid 30s.

Going into Friday...cold and dry air mass will still be in place
early with lows again dropping into the teens. Upper trough shifts
northeast with more zonal flow ahead of the next system. Surface
high pressure will have moved east of the Panhandles allowing
southwest winds to increase by sunrise leading to wind chill
values near zero across most of the area before temperatures
quickly recover back to the 40s by afternoon.

Beyond Friday...Temperatures will warm into the 60s on Saturday
before the next upper wave clips the northern CWA with a weak cold
front moving through on Sunday. Temperatures will stay around
average with dry conditions going into early next week. A gradual
warming trend is expected towards the middle of next week as zonal
flow sets up to our north and ridging to our south.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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