Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 190516

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1216 AM CDT Sun Mar 19 2017

06Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 06Z
Monday. South and southwest winds 5 to 15 knots will become
southwest to west 10 to 20 knots with some higher gusts possible
to around 25 knots after 14Z to 16Z today. Winds will become
southwest to northwest 5 to 15 knots after 23Z today to 04Z



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

VFR conditions are expected through the period with isolated CU
during the early part of the forecast. High clouds will be most
numerous across the southern Texas Panhandle. An isolated weak
thunderstorm developed off the mountains in northeastern New
Mexico and is moving eastward towards the Panhandles as of 2320z.
This storm is expected to dissipate as it gets away from the
higher elevations, but remnant clouds could make it into KDHT by
03z or so. Winds will be shifting from south to the southwest
through the night at 10-15 knots. Increasing wind speeds can be
expected by late Sunday morning with 15-20 knot winds by Sunday


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 327 PM CDT Sat Mar 18 2017/

Current satellite observation in-conjunction with forecast 12Z/18Z
soundings illustrate that there is mid level instability as low
cloud ceilings from earlier this morning have nearly dissipated
across the region. As a result, mid level Cu`s have been
developing near higher dewpoint temps across the SE TX Panhandle
and also across portions of the western Panhandle near an low
amplitude upper level trough across eastern New Mexico with cooler
H500 temperatures. As this feature advects further into the
southern TX Panhandle, some mid level cooling and some instability
can develop which could lead to scattered chance of a shower or
thunderstorm. However, shear is very limited hence, POPs have been
kept around very isolated. Best chances would be across the far
southern and southeastern TX Panhandle. Otherwise, tranquil
weather conditions expected through the rest of the day today with
high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s to lower 80s.

As we go into Sunday, elevated fire weather conditions are
expected all across the OK and TX Panhandles. Further detail will
be discussed in the fire weather section below. Overall synoptic
conditions for Sunday from the latest 18/12Z model and numerical
data shows our region under a large ridge of high pressure with a
high amplitude H250 jet across southern Canada. This in
conjunction with our region being under the influence of the
northern region of an H500 high pressure system will result in
weak upper level winds. There are some indications of some small
kinks in the main H700 flow during the day on Sunday that may
help to re-establish the SW downslope flow as surface isobars
compact with a developing surface low over SW KS. High
temperatures on Sunday will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s
under that warm SW flow.

Going through the first half of the week, tranquil weather is
expected to continue as an upper level ridge continues to
influence our weather with the ridge axis almost over our region.
A cold front will also work its way slowly through the region from
NE to SW. Temperatures behind the front will be at or slightly
below average. A southern stream meridional jet will enter
southern California as we go into the latter half of the work
week. Strong winds, and some showers and thunderstorms are
possible as we go toward the end of the work week across the
eastern Panhandles. Forecast will be updated as we get closer in
time toward this event. High temperatures through the end of the
forecast period will be above average.


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected throughout the day
on Sunday. Min RH values during the day on Sunday will be between
8-14% across the central and western Panhandle with 15-22% across
the eastern Panhandles. A surface low will try to develop across
SW Kansas and this could enhance the H850 isobars and as a result,
a good southwesterly flow could be established, especially across
the western TX Panhandle with winds gusting over 25 kts at times
during the afternoon hours. As a result of the localized stronger
winds across the western TX panhandle, borderline critical fire
weather conditions may also occur across the far western TX

Elevated fire weather conditions may return to the region as we go
toward the end of next week during the day on Thursday and Friday,
but will be further analyzed as we get closer with time with the
forecast being updated accordingly.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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