Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 220416
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1116 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND MOVE SLOWLY EAST THROUGH 10Z TUESDAY.
CONVECTION SHOULD STILL LINGER AROUND THE DALHART AND GUYMON TAF
SITES UNTIL AROUND 08Z TO 10Z TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AT THIS TIME. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL EXCEPT POSSIBLY SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR THE
CONVECTION. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY EXCEPT STRONG AND ERRATIC IN AND NEAR
THE CONVECTION.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 632 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE AND THE NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE COULD
POSSIBLY AFFECT MAINLY THE GUYMON TAF SITE AND...TO A LESSER
EXTENT...THE DALHART TAF SITE. WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF CONVECTION
FROM THE DALHART TAF SITE FOR NOW BUT WILL INCLUDE A VCTS AT THE
GUYMON TAF SITE WHICH MAY NEED TO BE A TEMPO GROUP PRIOR TO 02Z
TUESDAY. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY
SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND NEAR ANY CONVECTION. ALSO...STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE CONVECTION. OTHERWISE...SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS BECOMING 5 TO
15 KNOTS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 411 PM CDT MON JUL 21 2014/

DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND ATTENDANT
ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...AND WEAK CONVERGENCE
ALONG A SFC TROF AXIS OVER ERN NM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS ACROSS WRN AND NWRN ZONES. HAVE GONE WITH AREAL
QUAILFIER TERMINOLOGY USING ISOLD TO SCT VALUES FOR THIS EVENING
ACROSS THIS AREA...THEN NON MENTIONABLE VALUES AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

A SIMILAR SCENARIO MAY EVOLVE LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WRN AND NWRN ZONES...AND HAVE DECIDED TO INSERT SLGT CHC
POPS IN THAT AREA FOR TUE EVENING AT THIS TIME.

WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE MEANDERING AROUND THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS.

ALL MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WANDER BACK TO THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK TO A POSITION
AROUND THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS AN UPPER LEVEL ERN US TROF DEVELOPS.
THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL PLACE THE PNHDLS IN NW FLOW ALOFT BEGINNING
AS EARLY AS FRIDAY...BUT MORE LIKELY DURG THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND
CONTINUING BEYOND THIS FCST PCKG IF MODEL PROGS VERIFY. THIS WILL
EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE TO COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INCORPORATED SLGT CHC POPS FOR NWRN
ZONES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND SLGT CHC POP VALUES AREAWIDE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND NEXT MONDAY BASED ON THE
EXPECTED PATTERN CHANGE AND REASONABLE MEDIUM RANGE MODEL AGREEMENT.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THRUOGH THE END OF THIS WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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