Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 252208
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
508 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.Discussion...
After quiet weather for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today,
active weather returns to the region tomorrow through early next
week. An upper-level shortwave trough extending from Montana toward
Southern California today will translate eastward through the day
tomorrow. A compact vort max/developing closed low will swing around
the base of the trough as it passes our region tomorrow, with mid-
level height falls across the region and deepening surface low over
SE Colorado in response. This should keep the best moistures and
better severe thunderstorm chances east of the Panhandles tomorrow
afternoon and evening, though moisture may be sufficient enough to
see an isolated storm or two develop in the far eastern Panhandles.

As the upper-level low pulls northward on Friday, the surface low
will lift northeastward as well and push a cold front through the
Panhandles. There may be enough low-level moisture behind the front
and lift from the upper low to generate a few showers and
thunderstorms in the Oklahoma and Northern Texas Panhandles during
the afternoon. No severe weather is expected however. Another quiet
day is expected Saturday, as mid-level height rises and depleted
moisture limit storm potential across the area.

Thunderstorm chances return in earnest for Sunday as moisture
returns to the area and southwest flow aloft brings passing
shortwaves. Also the Panhandles will be located favorably beneath the
left exit region of an upper-level jet, which should enhance synoptic
scale lift across the region. The dryline should not be much of a
factor, but widespread instability should see at least decent chances
for storm development across the area Sunday afternoon and evening.
Some storms could become severe. The dryline should be mostly west of
the Panhandles again on Monday as upper-level flow becomes more
zonal aloft, and thunderstorm chances become more dependent on
passing shortwaves and possible mountain convection moving eastward
onto the Plains. Some storms through early next week could also be
strong to severe.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/Pops...
Amarillo TX                56  87  54  80  54 /   5   5   5  10   5
Beaver OK                  58  90  57  81  56 /   0  20  10  20  10
Boise City OK              50  83  51  72  51 /   0   5  10  30  10
Borger TX                  60  89  55  81  56 /   0  10  10  10   5
Boys Ranch TX              54  87  54  79  53 /   0   5   5  10   5
Canyon TX                  56  88  53  81  53 /   0   5   5  10   5
Clarendon TX               61  90  58  85  58 /   5  10  10   5   5
Dalhart TX                 49  86  51  75  51 /   0   5   5  20  10
Guymon OK                  53  88  54  78  54 /   0  10  10  20   5
Hereford TX                56  87  53  81  53 /   0   5   5  10   5
Lipscomb TX                62  88  59  82  57 /   5  20  10  20   5
Pampa TX                   60  87  56  80  56 /   5  10  10  10   5
Shamrock TX                65  89  60  86  59 /   5  20  10   5  10
Wellington TX              67  91  63  88  61 /   5  20  10   5  10

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/6



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