Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 170410 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1110 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.AVIATION...
FOR THE 06Z TAFS...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS AVIATION AFD REASONING.
TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
PARTS OF THE TX AND OK PNHDLS. HOWEVER...COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN
THAT OBSERVED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW WITH RESPECT TO WHETHER OR NOT ANY PARTICULAR TERMINAL SITE
WILL BE IMPACTED BY TSTMS. THEREFORE...HAVE OMITTED THIS ELEMENT FROM
THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 639 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 00Z TAFS...TSTMS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FCST AREA THIS EVENING. RETAINED SOME -RA AT BOTH KGUY AND KAMA THRU
02Z TO ACCOUNT FOR RESIDUAL PRECIPITATION. EXPECT ISOLD TSTMS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...COVERAGE OF ANY TSTMS
THAT FORM SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN THAT OBSERVED TODAY...WHICH
PRECLUDES MENTIONING IN THE TAFS FOR THIS FCST CYCLE.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 335 PM CDT SAT AUG 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS PANHANDLES THIS
EVENING.  SLOW MOVEMENT COULD PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION...AND HAVE
PULLED POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...HAVE ELIMINATED MORNING AND LATE NIGHT POPS AS
EXPECT ANY CONVECTION TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN.  SUNDAY AFTERNOON POPS
HAVE BEEN REDUCED TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT...OWING TO WEAK
ANTICYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW AND LACK OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE.
MONDAY AFTERNOON POPS HAVE BEEN TRIMMED TO INCLUDE ONLY NORTHERN
SECTIONS...WHERE INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL FLOW EXPECTED TO BE HIGHER
AND STRONGER RESPECTIVELY.

TUESDAY POPS IN NORTH HAVE BEEN KEPT...BUT BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT
HAVE INCREASED OR INTRODUCED POPS ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WEST PARTS
OF FORECAST AREA...AS GFS AND ECMWF PREDICT RETURN OF MONSOON
MOISTURE...INFERRED BY POSITION OF 700 MB THETA-E RIDGE.  MODERATE
500 MB TEMPERATURES PREDICTED DURING THIS TIME SHOULD PREVENT
WIDESPREAD CAPPING ISSUES.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 20 PERCENT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY DUE TO RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND NON-
SUPPORTIVE FUELS.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$






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