Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161801 AAC
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
101 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z TAFS/
VCSH AND EVENTUALLY VCTS WILL MOSTLY IMPACT KAMA AND KGUY THROUGH
05Z WITH THE BEST TIME FRAME FOR TS BEING 20Z-00Z. AT THIS TIME...TOO
DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT A TS OCCURRENCE ALTHOUGH IF ONE OCCURS AT TAF
SITE...WIND GUSTS OVER 40KTS AND SMALL HAIL WOULD BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
AS LOWER VISIBILITIES WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL. THINK TS WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE EAST BY 00Z...WHICH IS WHERE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE. MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL DEVELOP AFTER
04Z...MAINLY AT KAMA AND KGUY WITH CEILINGS MIXING OUT BY 13Z.

KH

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1150 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

UPDATE...

WE WILL PERFORM A SPECIAL BALLOON RELEASE AT 18Z. INITIAL CONCERN IS
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES AND
ONGOING CLOUDS/SHOWERS IN THAT AREA. FURTHER EAST WITH LESS CLOUD
COVER SURFACE DIABATIC HEATING AND SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL MOIST
ADVECTION IS OCCURING. 12Z OBSERVED KAMA SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR EXPECTED
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE YIELDS MODERATE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY. ONE
OF THE BIGGEST UNCERTAINTIES NOW IS TO WHAT DEGREE WE MIX OUT AND
IMPLICATIONS THAT WILL HAVE FOR INSTABILITY. MOISTURE IS PROBABLY
QUITE SHALLOW BUT MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEPENING WITH TIME.
LATEST WEST TEXAS MESONET OBS SHOW LOW 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEW POINTS
UP STREAM IMPINGING ON THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.
RAP AND OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SEEM TO BE TOO WEAK AND SLIGHTLY
MISPLACED WITH SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...HENCE MORE SIGNIFICANT ISOLLOBARIC RESPONSE AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SEEN IN REGIONAL OBSERVATIONS.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PANHANDLES WILL
CONTINUE TO DEEPEN INTO EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION
EVOLVING OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THIS AREA MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL
PANHANDLES THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE
INITIATION MAY OCCUR FURTHER EAST AS WELL. STORM MOTIONS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AT AROUND 25 KNOTS. WITH SUCH LOW FREEZING LEVELS
AROUND 8500 FEET AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS. THE BEST CHANCE OF A
TORNADO WILL BE LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL MOIST ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS RESULTING IN STRONGER 0-1KM
SHEAR.

ANOTHER CONCERN IS DURATION. WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING SO WILL THE THREAT OF CONVECTION. A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT.

BRB

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 530 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015/

DISCUSSION...
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING REMAINS
PRIMARY ISSUE OF CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST.

CLOSED 500 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 4-CORNERS WILL BE A DOMINATING
INFLUENCE ON PANHANDLES WEATHER FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  DYNAMICS
FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CREATED STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW...AS
SEEN IN KAMA VAD WIND PROFILE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  INFLUX OF GULF
MOISTURE WILL CAUSE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  STRONG SHEAR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA.  SCATTERED TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  HAIL TO
TENNIS BALL SIZE...GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

POTENTIAL FOR DRY-SLOT TO MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEING STRONGLY SUGGESTED BY ALL MODELS.  THUS HAVE LOWERED
POPS IN WESTERN SECTIONS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.  DRYLINE WILL
LIKELY SHARPEN SUBSTANTIALLY OVER EASTERN SECTIONS...WITH GOOD
PROSPECTS FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BOTH DAYS.

BY SUNDAY...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH DEPARTING CLOSED LOW COULD CAUSE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY NORTH AND
NORTHEAST PART OF FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE LIKELY
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS GULF EXPECTED TO REMAIN OPEN.
03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
DRY SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NOT RECEIVING WETTING RAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  03

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$




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