Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 222255 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
555 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016

For the 00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals. The
winds will continue to be the focus with gusts around 20 to 30 KTS
lasting the majority of the forecast period. Wind direction will
generally be out of the south but may become more southwesterly
tomorrow afternoon. KAMA still looks to have an opportunity for some
low stratus Tuesday morning, but have decided to leave out fog due to
strong southwesterly winds. Some thunderstorms may move into the far
northwestern portions of the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles this
evening and later tonight, however confidence is low that any storms
will impact KDHT.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 PM CDT MON AUG 22 2016/

A potentially active weather pattern is in the forecast as we go
through the rest of the work week. Going into this evening, the
latest water vapor/visible satellite imagery is showing a vort max
near the central AZ/NM border advecting Cu fields and some showers
across central and eastern NM. 850 hPa S-SW jet around 30-35 kts on
the latest 22/12Z model and probabilistic data will possibly advect
the precipitation into our region as the latest hi-res models
indicates. With SBCAPE over 1500 J/kg and bulk shear between 25-30
kts across the central and western TX Panhandle, there is enough
instability to support some showers and thunderstorms if the main
vort max continues to progress into western NM with some good theta-e
advection providing low level moisture into our region as well.
Precipitation will diminish as we go into the overnight hours as we
lose diurnal heating.

As we go throughout the remainder of the week, an upper level high
pressure system anchored over the southeastern states will provide a
quasi-stationary upper level pattern over the region. An upper level
trough over New Mexico will continue to advect low pressure impulses
over the region providing more chances of diurnally driven showers
and thunderstorms. As we go from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday
morning, a surface cold front will work its way south into the
region providing the best chances of thunderstorms along the surface
based feature. In-conjunction, 12Z data shows a 250 hPa jet max just
north of the region which puts the Panhandles in the right entrance
region of the jet which shows favorable upper level dynamics. Once
the cold front moves through the region, the upper level pattern will
slowly become more zonal as we go through next weekend as the upper
level high pressure over the SE shifts into the Atlantic. However,
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue into next



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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