Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 242127
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
427 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.DISCUSSION...DOMINATING MID-UPR LVL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER INITIALLY
JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE EAST CLOSER TO THE CEN MS
RIVER VALLEY THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT RIDGING WILL EXTEND WEST
OF THE CENTER ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIMIT OR
ELIMINATE CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE REGION. THAT SAID...THE N-NW
THIRD OF THE CWA WILL BE FURTHEST REMOVED FROM THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE...MAY BE IMPACTED BY SRN EDGE OF WEAK S/WVS WORKING AROUND THE
NRN SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS...AND WILL ALSO BE NEAR CONVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY WEAK SFC TROUGH. GIVEN THIS AND SOME INFLUENCE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME SEEN AT H7...WILL SHOW SLT CHC POPS (SOME
LOW END CHC POPS) ACROSS THE N-NW THIRD OF THE AREA MOST DAYS WITH
GREATEST CHCS ACROSS OK PANHANDLE AND FAR N/NW CORNER OF THE TX
PANHANDLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NAM SHOWS CAPE VALUES
EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG...BUT WEAK SHEAR AND VERY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS
WILL PROVIDE LITTLE CHC FOR A SEVERE STORM ALTHOUGH A PULSE STRONG
STORM IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE AROUND MID WEEK AS A NOTABLE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
MS RIVER VALLEY. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH A HIGH CENTER WILL SHIFT
WEST AND BUILD ACROSS THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PROVIDE A N-NW MID-UPR
LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CEN NORTH AMERICA. MED RANGE MODELS ARE NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION...HOWEVER GFS AND
ECMWF STILL BOTH BRING A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA BY WED. NRLY MID-
UPR LVL FLOW SHOULD AT LEAST BRING POSSIBILITY OF AREA BEING
IMPACTED BY STORMS MVG SOUTH ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO THE AREA.
WILL SHOW SOME INCREASE IN POPS AND DECREASE IN TEMPS LATE IN THE
PERIOD...BUT CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS VERY LOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                71  96  71  96  70 /  10   5   5   5   5
BEAVER OK                  73 100  72 100  72 /  20  20  20  10  10
BOISE CITY OK              68  97  69  98  68 /  20  20  20  20  20
BORGER TX                  74  99  74  99  74 /  10  10  10   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              71  99  71  99  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  70  96  70  96  69 /  10   5   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               72  98  72  98  71 /   5   5   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 69  99  69  99  69 /  20  20  20  10  20
GUYMON OK                  72 100  71 100  71 /  20  20  20  10  20
HEREFORD TX                69  95  69  95  69 /  10   5  10   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                73 100  74 100  73 /  10  10  10  10  10
PAMPA TX                   71  96  71  97  71 /  10   5  10   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                72  99  72  99  72 /   5   5   5   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              73 100  73 101  73 /   5   0   5   5   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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