Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 062105 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
405 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014

.UPDATE...
ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE. UPDATED PREVIOUS FORECAST TO
EXPAND THE LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THIS EVENING FURTHER NORTH AND
WEST AND CALL FOR AREAL QUALIFIERS RATHER THAN CATEGORICAL PRECIP.
ALSO INCREASED SKY COVER MORE THIS EVENING.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 238 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN COLORADO WITH SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. UPPER HIGH SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND GREAT BASION
REGION MAINTAINING A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH FORECAST TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AROUND
00Z TO 03Z MONDAY. EXPECT GENERALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN
TRACKING SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 03Z
MONDAY. FEEL THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND DECIDED TO INSERT LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE THROUGH 03Z MONDAY. THE LATEST
TTU-WRF AND...TO SOME EXTENT...THE HRRR ALONG WITH THE NAM...RUC AND
ECMWF SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE PANHANDLES EARLY THIS WEEK
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN
TEXAS PANHANDLES LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...06Z TO
12Z TUESDAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE TUESDAY WITH LITTLE OR NO UPPER SUPPORT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT BASION REGION BACK DOWN INTO THE
PANHANDLES AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. WEAKNESS ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LEAD TO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AFFECTING
THE FORECAST AREA IN COMBINATION WITH THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN CONVECTION...DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA...TO MOVE LITTLE AND CAUSING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS BY TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAIL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
DRY CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE PANHANDLES THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/11





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