Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 212314

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
614 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016

00Z TAF Cycle

VFR conditions will prevail at all three TAF sites through 00Z
Friday. Showers or thunderstorms may affect the Dalhart TAF site
between 00Z and 03Z Thursday...therefore will include a VCTS remark
and a TEMPO group during that time period. Southerly winds 15 to 25
knots with gusts near 30 knots will diminish to around 10 to 20 knots
after 01Z Thursday...and will then increase once again after roughly
14Z to 16Z Thursday to around 15 to 25 knots with gusts near 30



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2016/

There will be some periods of active weather followed by tranquil
weather conditions as we go into the long term forecast period.
Latest 21/12Z model and probabilistic data continues to show a
deepening upper level trough developing near the Four Corners region
Friday morning helping to develop a lee cyclone east of the central
Rockies. As the main surface low pressure system moves north towards
the western Dakotas, a trailing cold front will work its way through
the region starting early Saturday morning. Latest model trends
continue to decrease QPF amounts as the cold front works its way
through the region. However, behind the cold front, a strip of 500
hPA PVA behind the cold front across eastern CO/NM will help enhance
precipitation across the eastern Panhandles near the sfc-700
baroclinic zone. Latest 12Z numerical data shows the highest chances
of accumulating rainfall across the eastern Panhandles Saturday
afternoon into early Sunday morning.

As we go into early next week, latest 12Z model sounding data shows
strong CAA coming into the region as the main deepening upper level
trough axis shifts east of our region. This will bring H850 temps
ranging from 8C to 11C into the Panhandles. As a result, high
temperatures will range from upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday and
moderating to lower and mid 70s by Tuesday, well below average. Going
towards the end of the forecast period, latest global model guidance
shows a cut off low developing across the central high plains. Upper
level dynamics circling the base of the cut off low well to the north
of the Panhandles shows upper level convergence near our region. In-
conjunction with downsloping 500 hPa flow, weather will be tranquil
as we go through the middle of the work week. Temperature will
moderate to near average as we go into the middle of next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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