Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 131809

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1209 PM CST Fri Jan 13 2017

Low confidence for the 18Z TAF issuance due to low clouds and the
chance for frozen precipitation. Dry air near the surface has been
holding off onset of any precip while precipitating within the
cloud deck.

Have removed prevailing wx mention for KAMA for the start
of the TAF period but we could see some light freezing drizzle
between 19z and 21z. After 21z we should see more consistent drizzle
as we should be above freezing at the surface. After midnight, we
should see drizzle switch over to freezing drizzle which will also
drop our ceilings to LIFR. By tomorrow morning we should warm enough
at KAMA to transition back to liquid. After the change over to
liquid, we should be able to improve back to IFR.

For KDHT and KGUY, the onset of precip will be much later than KAMA.
We will likely see precip hold off until 0z and 06Z. Given
temperatures will be well below freezing precip should be in the form
of freezing drizzle. Ceilings will deteriorate to LIFR when precip
begins and remain low until we change back over to liquid tomorrow
morning. With that being said, both terminals will remain IFR even
after the transition back to liquid.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 547 AM CST Fri Jan 13 2017/

Running way late due to a messy and complicated weather forecast
package for at least the first 7 periods. Strong and closed upper
level low pressure system off srn CA coast will affect our weather
beginning today and lasting into Monday morning with a variety of
weather expected. For today, light rain and light freezing rain have
been slow to develop due to dry air temporarily invading the srn high
plains in the wake of Thursday`s cold frontal passage. This is seen
by rather low dewpoints this morning. It will take some time today
for the atmosphere to moisten up sufficiently to cause precipitation
to reach the ground. Nearly all model guidance has lowered pops
substantially into the slgt chc category or even non-mentionable
values for today. Have trended in that direction.

Expect light rain and light freezing rain to develop tonight across
the forecast area, then increase in intensity later Saturday through
Saturday night. Current winter weather highlights issued earlier
remain plausible. Strong warm air advection will eventually cause
most precipitation to turn to all rain in the fcst area on Sunday.
The upper level storm system is then progged to track across wrn TX
and across the TX and OK Panhandles later Sunday afternoon into early
Monday morning with widespread rain...possibly heavy at times with
even some potential for tstms. As the cold core of the upper low
moves across the area Sunday night into early Monday morning,
precipitation will likely change to a rain and snow mix or even all
snow, especially across nwrn sections. Any snowfall accumulations
should remain light at this time. Beyond Monday night, medium range
models continue to diverge in handling the overall upper level
pattern so have retained a model consensus fcst for next Tuesday
through Friday.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...

OK...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.



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