Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 130542 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1142 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017

.AVIATION...
For the 06Z TAFs, little change to previous aviation AFD. Gradually
deteriorating weather conditions are expected durg this fcst
cycle at all terminal sites as a strong upper level storm system
approaches the region from northwest Mexico. Most of the winter
precipitation during this fcst issuance in the form of snow and
rain mixed will occur from late Monday morning through Monday
evening and beyond.

Andrade

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 553 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 00Z TAFs, gradually deteriorating weather conditions are
expected durg this fcst cycle at all terminal sites as a strong
upper level storm system begins to approach the region from
northwest Mexico. Most of the winter precipitation during this
fcst issuance in the form of snow and rain mixed will occur from
late Monday morning through Monday afternoon and beyond.

Andrade

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 419 PM CST Sun Feb 12 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Models have come into very good agreement regarding mid-level
height pattern. Unfortunately, large amount of uncertainty
remains regarding temperature profiles which will determine
precipitation types.

We will be issuing a winter storm watch shortly for all but our
eastern column of counties for expected troublesome weather Monday
through Tuesday evening.  Expect at least advisory level
conditions to be likely beginning noon Monday.  Current forecast
is for total snow of 1 to 7 inches Monday afternoon through
Tuesday evening, with highest amounts in the southwest Texas
Panhandle.

Light rain and snow is expected tonight with no accumulations.

On Monday morning rain and snow is forecast for eastern and
north-central sections, with snow, sleet, and freezing rain all
being possible elsewhere.  Do not expect any accumulations on the
surface Monday morning due to warm ground temperatures, although
elevated surfaces may see a very light glaze of ice.

Snow and rain are expected Monday afternoon, with greatest
potential for accumulations in southwest.

On Monday night and Tuesday morning, expect higher accumulations
in western sections where stronger dynamics near mid-level closed
low expected.  Closed low pulls southeast of area Tuesday
afternoon and evening, with precipitation coming to an end.

Dry Wednesday through Saturday with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.  03

Cockrell

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf
     Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley...Hutchinson...
     Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Potter...Randall...Roberts...
     Sherman.

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening
     for the following zones: Cimarron...Texas.


&&

$$

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