Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 171717
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1117 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. SURFACE WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CST MON NOV 17 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH HIGH TEMPS TODAY AS WAA
COMPETES WITH OUR SNOWPACK. THINK THE FRESH SNOW WILL BE ABLE TO
HOLD TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES IN A GOOD PORTION OF OUR CWA AND HAVE
TWEAKED HIGH TEMPS SO THAT THE WARMEST READINGS (NEAR 40) ARE IN THE
AREAS THAT GOT THE LEAST AMOUNT OF SNOW. THINK ANY IMPACT OF THE
SNOW ON TEMPS WILL RUN ITS COURSE TODAY AND HAVE LIMITED INFLUENCE
BEYOND THIS EVENING.

HIGHS WILL PUSH WARMER EVERY DAY THROUGH WED WITH FULL SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY MOVE OVERHEAD WED EVENING AND WED
NIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK SHRTWV. INCREASED LOWS WED NIGHT AS THESE HIGH
CLOUDS PLUS SOUTHERLY WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY UP WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE CURRENT GUIDANCE NUMBERS.

SIMPSON

LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK AS THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE MODERATING BUT STILL END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
WEAK SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE PANHANDLE ON THURSDAY BUT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH AT THE SURFACE. 00Z MODELS COMING INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
SATURDAY...THOUGH DIFFERENCES STILL REMAIN WITH THE STRENGTH AND
AMPLITUDE. DID BUMP UP POPS TO HIGH END SLIGHT CHANCE ON SATURDAY
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND DID INCLUDE ISOLATED
THUNDER MENTION AS INSTABILITY AND BETTER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE OVER
FAR EASTERN ZONES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/06





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