Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 011136
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
636 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY BEEN INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AND SHOULD AFFECT EACH TERMINAL TO START OFF
THE 12Z CYCLE. HAVE CARRIED TEMPO GROUPS FOR BOTH KGUY AND KDHT WHILE
KEEPING SHRA PREVAILING FOR KAMA. THIS MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD
PERSIST ROUGHLY THROUGH 14Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. THERE SHOULD BE A
LULL IN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY BEFORE THE
NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE CARRIED
PROB30 GROUPS FOR EACH TERMINAL DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING GIVEN
THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18





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