Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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938
FXUS64 KAMA 190957
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
357 AM CST Sun Feb 19 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Advection fog is developing this morning as moisture streams in
from the southeast allowing dewpoints to rise. The fog looks to
stick around through mid-morning, especially for eastern portions
of the Panhandles, when winds will turn slightly towards the
south and decrease the magnitude of upslope flow.

The upper level low is located in southwestern Arizona this
morning and is expected to track towards the 4 corners. Hi-res
CAMs indicate the chance for thunderstorms in the area this
afternoon is slim. The eastern Panhandles still look to have the
best chance but models continue to cut off the western extent of
the likely area. SPC has now dropped the slight risk area from the
Panhandles because of this; leaving the area in general
thunderstorm. Forecast soundings look anemic in the instability
department. The possibility for any thunderstorms to even become
marginally severe is looking more difficult to achieve. Have
lowered pops and cut back on the extent but wouldn`t be surprised
if more trimming happens this afternoon as more Hi-res models get
closer.

As the upper level low opens up as it crosses the area, the region
will be placed in northwest flow. Mid-level heights begin to rise
and downsloping will aid in bringing surface temps up into the 70s
and 80s through mid-week. On Thursday a mid level jet approaches
the area and brings gusty winds down to the surface. This combined
with the high temps and low RH values will create fire weather
concerns. A wind advisory also looks like it may be needed. Winds
may stay strong through Thursday evening ahead of the next big
cold front as a surface low pressure system develops in the lee of
the Rockies and pushes out across the Plains.

Beat

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RH values look to remain between 15 and 20 percent through most of
the week. The concern will thus fall to days that have the chance
for winds to increase. Monday looks to have elevated fire weather
concerns in the northwestern sections. The biggest day for concern
is Thursday as winds become gusty and RH values in some areas may
fall to around 12 percent. A wind advisory may be needed that day.
Most of the Panhandles could be in critical conditions with the
remaining areas in elevated. Winds could remain strong through the
evening hours ahead of a cold front.

Beat

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                66  41  67  36  74 /  10   5   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  71  45  71  34  76 /  10  20   0   0   0
Boise City OK              65  39  66  34  75 /   5   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  70  44  70  38  76 /  20  10   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              68  40  69  34  76 /   5   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  67  40  68  36  75 /  10   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               69  45  70  38  75 /  20  10   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 67  37  68  32  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  70  41  69  35  75 /  10  10   0   0   0
Hereford TX                66  38  68  36  74 /   5   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                71  46  72  35  76 /  20  20   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   67  43  68  37  74 /  20  10   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                68  46  72  37  75 /  30  30   0   0   0
Wellington TX              69  47  73  38  76 /  30  30   0   0   0

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

3/16



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