Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 120244 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
844 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017

Have lowered first period temperatures, especially in north and
northeastern zones.  Cold front has entered eastern 2/3 of Oklahoma
Panhandle, ahead of schedule.  Have adjusted winds and temperatures
to account for earlier frontal passage.  Updated text products will
be issued shortly.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 605 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

For the 00z TAFs...VFR forecast continues next 24 hours with high
clouds only and no visibility restrictions expected.  Southwest
surface winds expected to trend to west and northwest overnight.
Backdoor cold front shift surface winds to east and southeast by late
morning or early afternoon.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 PM CST Wed Jan 11 2017/

Tonight through Thursday night... After our record breaking warm
temperatures today we will see much cooler temperatures on Thursday.
The cooler temperatures will be the result of a slowly intruding cold
front from the northeast. This cold front is rather shallow so it`s
going to struggle getting on top of the Caprock but it could filter
down the river valleys. This will set up a rather large temperature
gradient from east to west. The northeast may not be able to break
out of the mid 40s while the southwest corner could reach into the
mid 60s. Our winds will be fairly light from the west then out of the
east-northeast behind the front. Thursday night we will see
temperatures fall below freezing across the area while isentropic
lift brings ample low level moisture into the southeastern
Panhandles. This lift could be enough to spark off some light
freezing rain for the southeast. Very little frozen accumulation is
possible prior to 6 AM Friday, but the question remains if the depth
of the near surface cold layer is cold enough to super cool the
droplets after passing through a warm noise of 9C to 10C.


Friday through Monday night...The models continue to disagree quite a
bit from run to run and between models. Our best guess at this point
on how the weekend system will play out will start with a mix of
drizzle and freezing drizzle across the Panhandles Friday morning.
This may cause just enough glaze, particularly on elevated surfaces,
to be a problem for the morning commute. As the warm nose increases
in depth and the layer saturates, precip rate will increase and turn
into a mixture of rain and freezing rain for Friday afternoon. As the
low pressure system pushes closer to the area, the rain/freezing rain
looks to continue through Saturday night.

By Sunday morning a push of cold air makes it way southward and
allows the profile to cool into an all snow sounding for northern
parts of the area. The southern areas will see a bit of a dry slot
pass through if the low tracks across the Panhandles. Northern areas
will continue to see snow on the backside of the low. Right now, have
gone with an average snow amount in the north, which keeps it below
warning criteria. However, if the cold air pushes in faster, amounts
could easily go up. Some models have even showed as much as a foot of
snow in places. Have currently set up a Winter Storm Watch for the
northeastern and eastern Panhandles to show where the greatest ice
potential exists. By Monday the surface low should push out of the
area and precip should end from south to north.


Tuesday Through Next Thursday... The upper trough which kicks our
winter weather system out of the Panhandles will still be moving
over the area on Tuesday. We aren`t expecting any precip on Tuesday
as the area will be on an unfavorable region of the upper jet and
that we will be lacking moisture. As the trough moves to the east on
Wednesday it will be replaced by northwest flow with a few embedded
shortwaves. We will continue to lack on moisture so no precip is
expected at this time.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning
     for the following zones: Hemphill...Lipscomb...Ochiltree...

OK...Winter Storm Watch from Friday morning through Sunday morning
     for the following zones: Beaver.



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