Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201957
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
257 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Tranquil weather will be across the region as we start the near term
forecast period with a more amplified sinusoidal upper level pattern
as we go into the long term forecast period with some more chances of
thunderstorms. As we go through the rest of the weekend, high
pressure will remain in control over the region. Southwest winds will
increase as we go into Sunday, especially across the western
Panhandles with an isolated chance of thunderstorms as well across
the western areas. Otherwise temperatures will rise into the mid 80s
by the end of the weekend.

As we go into next week, a trough will begin to develop across the
southwestern US developing a more sinusoidal flow across the central
and western CONUS. With lowering 500 hPa moving into the region along with
500 hPa temps between -7c to -9c and diurnal heating, 20/12Z model
and probabilistic data are in good agreement of diurnal convection
throughout the week with slight POPS reflected in the forecast.
Global models begin to diverge as we go into the latter half of the
work week as a cold front will begin to work south from the central
Plains. Timing is not in agreement with the global models with
ranges between Thursday morning and Thursday evening with the cold
front moving south across the Panhandles. This will be our best
chance of precipitation going into next week. High temperatures will
be near average before the front arrives and then drop below average
by the end of the week in the wake of the cold front.

Meccariello

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                59  81  60  85  65 /   5   5  10  20  20
Beaver OK                  54  86  62  89  67 /   0   5   5  10  20
Boise City OK              59  82  60  85  63 /   5  10  10  10  20
Borger TX                  64  85  63  89  67 /   5   5   5  20  20
Boys Ranch TX              58  85  61  90  65 /   5  10  10  20  20
Canyon TX                  56  82  60  86  64 /   5  10  10  20  20
Clarendon TX               57  83  62  85  66 /   5   5  10  20  20
Dalhart TX                 60  84  60  88  63 /   5  10  10  10  20
Guymon OK                  61  86  62  89  65 /   5   5   5  10  20
Hereford TX                56  83  60  89  64 /   5  10  20  20  20
Lipscomb TX                56  86  61  89  68 /   0   5   5  20  20
Pampa TX                   58  85  60  87  66 /   5   5   5  20  20
Shamrock TX                55  85  62  86  68 /   5   5   5  20  20
Wellington TX              56  86  63  88  69 /   5   5  10  30  20

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

AVIATION...
18Z TAFs - Stubborn MVFR clouds and occasional ceilings lingering
around KAMA should slowly lift to VFR over the next few hours where
they should remain overnight. Northerly winds will become more
southeasterly by afternoon as well, an eventually become due south
late tomorrow morning.

Elsenheimer

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

18/29



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