Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 172117
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
417 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
...HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL INCREASES LATER THIS WEEK...

THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ODILE WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER HERE IN THE TX AND OK PNHDLS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR
TONIGHT...A LAREG PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE
AREA WITH AN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ADVANCING ENEWD FROM THE TX
SOUTH PLAINS INTO EXTRM SRN TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY AND WENT WITH AREAL QUALIFIER WORDING FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS SRN TX PNHDL TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION.

ON THURSDAY...SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FAVORED FOR THE WRN AND SRN TX
PNHDL AS REMNANTS OF ODILE GET A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE REGION. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL THEN SPREAD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT TO ENCOMPASS MORE OF THE FCST AREA.

IT APPEARS...BASED ON GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IN HANDLING THE REMAINS OF
ODILE...THAT THE GREATEST THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...AND
HAVE RETAINED THE LIKELY POPS AND EVEN RAISED SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT. ALSO CONTINUED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
CONTEMPLATED FOR THIS TIME PERIOD BY LATER SHIFTS IF WARRANTED.

IF MODEL SOLUTIONS VERIFY...PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING SLGT CHC
POPS FOR SUNDAY APPEAR PLAUSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

IT STILL APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM PROGGED TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT
EWD AND NEWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS BY TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE OFFERS
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE TX AND OK PNHDLS...AND HAVE
INCORPORATED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE.

ANDRADE

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                62  80  62  76  62 /  30  30  30  60  70
BEAVER OK                  64  88  64  82  63 /   5   5  10  40  70
BOISE CITY OK              58  84  59  75  58 /  10  10  20  60  60
BORGER TX                  66  83  65  78  64 /  10  20  20  60  70
BOYS RANCH TX              60  80  61  76  60 /  20  30  30  60  60
CANYON TX                  61  79  62  76  62 /  30  30  30  60  70
CLARENDON TX               64  82  64  78  64 /  20  20  30  50  70
DALHART TX                 59  82  60  75  58 /  10  20  30  60  60
GUYMON OK                  62  88  62  80  62 /   5   5  10  50  70
HEREFORD TX                61  78  61  76  61 /  30  40  40  60  60
LIPSCOMB TX                64  87  64  80  64 /   5   5  10  50  70
PAMPA TX                   63  83  63  77  63 /  10  10  20  50  70
SHAMROCK TX                65  84  65  80  64 /  10  20  20  50  70
WELLINGTON TX              66  84  66  81  65 /  20  20  20  50  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$







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