Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 310952
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
452 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING ARE SLOW MOVING...AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCERS. SETUP REMAINS SOMEWHAT SIMILAR TO LAST FEW DAYS IN THAT
SEVERAL INGREDIENTS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL LINE UP ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.
MOISTURE PLUME SHIFTING SLIGHTLY WESTWARD THIS MORNING ACROSS NEW
MEXICO...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY RESULTING IN A SETUP FOR CONVECTION TO DRIFT INTO THE
PANHANDLES FROM THE MOUNTAINS. AT THE SURFACE...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP A FAIRLY DECENT MOISTURE SOURCE ACROSS ALL OF
THE PANHANDLES. PWAT VALUES RANGE FROM 1.5 TO NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY AS SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY. OUTSIDE
OF CONVECTION ARRIVING VIA NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW INGREDIENTS CAUSE
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LIFTING MECHANISM MAY BE LACKING ACROSS THE AREA AS A
WEAK...LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARY HAS DRIFTED FURTHER SOUTH. DEBRIS CLOUD
COVER FROM THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO AVAILABLE
INSTABILITY. OVERALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS LOW...SO WHILE SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED A FEW COULD PRODUCE A WIND THREAT. HEAVY RAINFALL
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING IS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
EVEN THOUGH UNCERTAINTY IS LOW IN WHERE EXACTLY STORMS WILL
DEVELOP...ANY THAT DO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
WILL HAVE SLOW STORM MOTION. HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE WESTERN PANHANDLES.

OVERALL SETUP CHANGES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER LEVEL
FLOW NORTHWESTERLY AND SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE. TIMING OF
SHORTWAVE IMPULSES DRIFTING INTO THE AREA...ALONG WITH OROGRAPHICALLY
INDUCED CONVECTION WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS BEGIN RISING ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY AND HAVE ADJUSTED BLEND POPS AFTER MONDAY TO CONCENTRATE ON
AREAS OF BEST CHANCES...THOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY CHANGE AS FORECAST
CONFIDENCE INCREASES IN EXTENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN
AND DRYING THE AREA OUT FOR A FEW DAYS MIDWEEK.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  67  83  66  89 /  50  60  40  40  20
BEAVER OK                  91  67  86  68  92 /  40  20  20  20  10
BOISE CITY OK              86  64  85  64  89 /  60  50  20  20   5
BORGER TX                  85  68  85  68  91 /  50  60  40  40  10
BOYS RANCH TX              85  67  87  67  92 /  60  60  30  40  20
CANYON TX                  85  66  84  66  91 /  50  60  40  40  20
CLARENDON TX               90  68  83  67  91 /  30  60  40  40  20
DALHART TX                 86  65  87  65  91 /  70  60  30  30  10
GUYMON OK                  90  67  87  66  91 /  50  40  20  20  10
HEREFORD TX                84  67  86  66  90 /  50  60  40  40  20
LIPSCOMB TX                90  68  85  68  91 /  50  40  30  30  10
PAMPA TX                   82  66  82  66  89 /  50  60  40  40  20
SHAMROCK TX                90  68  82  68  91 /  40  50  50  50  20
WELLINGTON TX              92  70  85  69  92 /  30  50  50  50  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...HARTLEY...MOORE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CIMARRON.


&&

$$

14/18




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