Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 182149
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
449 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A round of severe thunderstorms continue to develop along the
dryline in the far eastern Panhandles now moving into far western
OK. Another area of cumulus development is noted further west
where some high based instability is forming in response to height
falls ahead of an mid/upper level wave. This wave is advancing
eastward ahead of a broad upper level low spinning over western CO
/ eastern UT and may help initiate a few more storms off the
dryline over the next few hours. The timing of this initial wave
and the position of the dryline will largely determine whether the
far eastern counties may see additional storms this evening.
Also, the expansive area of thunderstorm development east of the
dryline in may hamper severe potential further west as the storm
cold pools may modify the environment at least to some extent
along the dryline. Otherwise, any storm that develops may become
severe with large hail being the main threat as 20z mesoanalysis
suggest MLCAPE around 3000 J/kg and Deep layer shear around 40-50
knots. The tornado threat will be better further east/northeast
into OK and KS, but an isolated tornado can`t be ruled out as low
level parameters are more and more supportive into the evening
along and east of the dryline. The severe storm threat is expected
to be shifted east of the Panhandles by 00z- 02z.

Overnight tonight, a surface low that is currently developing over
the northern zones will shift eastward and will help send the
stationary front in southwest KS through the Panhandles as a cold
front. Low level clouds are likely behind the front as low level
moisture will be better. This will lead to below average
temperatures Friday. The main wave along the periphery of the low
is progged to move across the area Friday afternoon. While the
dryline is expected to be just east of the Panhandles, slightly
better moisture (Td around 50) behind the cold front will aid in
possible storm development Mainly for the western and northern
zones Friday afternoon and evening. The NAM shows instability
being more elevated around 500-1000 J/kg with strong deep layer
shear as the main mid level jet moves over the Panhandles.
Moreover, a few storms could be on the strong. Additional storms
could develop along the dryline which may still be positioned in
our far eastern zones. Storms firing off the dryline will be in a
similar environment as Thursday, so severe storms will be possible
in the eastern zones during the afternoon and evening if the
dryline stays that far west.

Saturday looks dry as the upper low finally crosses the area and a
reinforcing and much drier front advances through the Panhandles
late Friday into early Saturday. Temperatures will be below
average, with highs mostly in the 60s expected. Flow aloft will
become more northwesterly to zonal. Additional chances for
mainly high based thunderstorms are possible Sunday into early
next week as perturbations move through the mean flow aloft.
Temperatures are expected to remain around or slightly below
average. A more robust upper low is progged to move southward out
of west-central Canada and could lead to another cold front (some
models suggest unseasonably strong) moving through the Panhandles
early Tuesday into Wednesday.

Ward

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                51  75  43  69  46 /   0  20  10   0   0
Beaver OK                  54  72  44  67  45 /  20  50  30   0   0
Boise City OK              46  64  39  65  42 /  10  50  40   0  10
Borger TX                  53  75  45  70  49 /   5  20  10   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              51  74  42  70  46 /   5  20  10   0   0
Canyon TX                  50  76  43  70  46 /   0  10   5   0   0
Clarendon TX               55  79  47  72  47 /   5  20  10   0   0
Dalhart TX                 47  68  40  67  44 /  10  40  20   0   5
Guymon OK                  50  69  42  66  45 /  10  40  30   0   5
Hereford TX                50  75  42  70  47 /   5  10   5   0   0
Lipscomb TX                55  75  46  68  47 /  20  50  20   0   0
Pampa TX                   52  74  43  68  47 /   5  30  10   0   0
Shamrock TX                59  79  48  72  48 /  20  40  20   0   5
Wellington TX              63  83  49  74  49 /  20  40  20   0   5

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

3/7



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