Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KAMA 111021 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
521 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS IN THE IFR RANGE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE GUY TAF SITE AT
THE START OF THIS FORECAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY ALSO REACH DHT AND AMA...SO
HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP AT THESE SITES. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE
BRIEFLY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AT LEAST MVFR CIGS SHOULD MOVE
BACK IN ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE ADDED SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST FOR
ALL SITES. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS ACTIVITY
AS WELL...BUT WILL KEEP IT JUST SHOWERS FOR NOW AS CONFIDENCE IN A
THUNDERSTORM MOVING OVER ANY ONE TAF SITE IS NOT VERY HIGH. WINDS
WILL START TO INCREASE AND TURN MORE TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 458 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT STILL ON TRACK TO PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF RAIN AND A TASTE
OF FALL TEMPERATURES.

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
LIED WELL TO OUR SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING...STRETCHING FROM JUST
NORTH OF DFW TO SOUTH OF MAF THEN ARCING NORTHWEST ALONG THE NM FRONT
RANGE. A FEW SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW
IN NORTHERN NM LAST EVENING CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE ATTM. FARTHER SOUTH...ADDITIONAL ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM NEAR RUIDOSO EASTWARD INTO THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS IN A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE SURFACE
FRONT. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH...BUT A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD GRAZE THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING. IT WILL LIKELY BE A STRUGGLE TO DO SO HOWEVER IN THE ABSENCE
OF ANY STRONGER FORCING AS THEY OUTRUN WHAT WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY
EXISTS TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MEANWHILE...LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN FROM KS AND OK EARLY THIS MORNING. COULD ALSO SEE SOME PATCHY
FOG THIS MORNING GIVEN LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW. HOWEVER...INCREASING MID CLOUDS FROM THE WEST SHOULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE AND OBS OVER KS AND OK SUGGEST MORE OF A LOW CLOUD VERSUS
FOG SCENARIO EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS.
THE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT/LIFT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT
CURRENTLY LYING ALONG THE NM FRONT RANGE WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD THE
TX/NM STATE LINE THIS AFTERNOON...AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN
PANHANDLES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THE MUCH BETTER RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE PLEASANT AGAIN
TODAY...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE 70S.

THE WELL ADVERTISED MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO PUSH
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE
PARENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS CONVECTION
DEVELOPS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE OUT
FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG STORM OR TWO ACROSS THE WESTERN OK
PANHANDLE AND FAR NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE THIS EVENING IF ANY STORMS
DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NICELY VEERING WIND PROFILES
YIELDING AROUND 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR ALONG WITH 0-1KM MLCAPES OF
500-1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT A STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM IN
THIS AREA. INSTABILITY WILL DECREASE BEHIND THE FRONT HOWEVER...WHICH
SHOULD END ANY SUCH THREAT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...ALONG AND
NORTH OF THE INITIAL FRONT. THINK THE BULK OF THIS WILL REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH...BUT SOME OF IT MAY MAKE A RUN TOWARD THE FAR SOUTHERN TX
PANHANDLE BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ALONG WITH THE RAIN...THE
SECONDARY FRONTAL PASSAGE TONIGHT WILL BRING WITH IT THE STRONGEST
WINDS WE/VE SEEN WITH A FROPA SINCE LAST SPRING. IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS
SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT IT WILL BE WINDY
NONETHELESS GIVEN PROGGED 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF 6-8MB AND A CORE
OF H85 WINDS AROUND 40 KTS.

THE BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE 12-HOUR PERIOD FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH NOON ON FRIDAY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. SOME LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE /SOUTH OF I-40/
BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD BE DRY BY EVENING. IT WILL BE QUITE CHILLY BY
SEPTEMBER STANDARDS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE 50S IN
MOST LOCATIONS...NOT TO MENTION THE BRISK WINDS DURING THE MORNING
HOURS. THESE WINDS WILL DISSIPATE BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS A 1030MB
SURFACE HIGH SLIPS INTO THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME LOW
CLOUDS HANGING AROUND WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING TO THEIR
FULL POTENTIAL...BUT LOWS IN THE 40S LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET AREA
WIDE.

DRY CONDITIONS AND GRADUALLY REBOUNDING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN
OF WARMING SOUTHERLY WINDS BENEATH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER FLOW
VEERS TO THE NORTHWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND AN UPPER RIDGE BULGES OVER THE WEST. THIS
UPPER TROUGH LOOKS TO SEND ANOTHER /WEAKER/ COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
PANHANDLES MONDAY...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
LEAVE IN SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES FOR TUESDAY AS WELL GIVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
IF THE FRONT ISN/T STRONG ENOUGH TO SURGE WELL SOUTH. WE MAY ALSO SEE
AN ENHANCED PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WORK THIS WAY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS WILL MAKE IT THIS
FAR NORTH OR REMAIN MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST.

KB

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
MID NEXT WEEK AS RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN ABOVE 20 PERCENT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING...SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH AT SPEEDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

KB

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/08





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.