Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 151110 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
510 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017

Winds will turn from northwest to more of a southwest to south
direction by late this afternoon. Wind speeds are expected to
remain around 10 knots or less. Skies are expected to remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 333 AM CST Wed Feb 15 2017/

An upper ridge will build in from the west through Thursday with
a closed upper low forecast to dig south today over northwest
Mexico and then track east across Mexico Thursday. The closed
upper low is then forecast to lift north and east into southwest
Texas Thursday night and then across northwest Texas Friday. No
precipitation is expected with the upper low Friday and Friday
night across the Panhandles. The closed upper low should then
track east along the Red River Valley Saturday. Cold front should
push across the Panhandles by late Friday or Friday night.

Upper ridge then builds in over the Panhandles Saturday but
another southern stream closed upper low tracks east from Baja
California into Mexico Sunday and Sunday night. The slower timing
of this second closed upper low by the medium range models suggest
a later timing on the onset of precipitation, possibly as early
as Sunday afternoon or Sunday evening, and then continuing into
Monday. Isolated to scattered convection should develop by Sunday
afternoon or evening and then continuing into Sunday night before
ending from west to east across the eastern portions of the
forecast area Monday. Although still too early to be certain, not
expecting any severe weather at this time from the convection but
conditions could possibly change by the end of the week or early
this weekend. Surface trough to track across the Panhandles Sunday
night with a cold front expected by late Monday or Monday evening.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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