Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 192332
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
632 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLES BETWEEN 00Z AND 05Z SUNDAY
AND MAY AFFECT THE DALHART TAF SITE...AND POSSIBLY THE GUYMON TAF
SITE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EXCEPT SOME MVFR CEILINGS IN AND
NEAR ANY CONVECTION THIS EVENING. SOUTH WINDS 5 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
00Z MONDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME 10 TO 20 KNOT WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS AT THE AMARILLO TAF SITE AFTER ABOUT 14Z OR 15Z SUNDAY.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 PM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT: SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ERUPTED ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY
OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND MOVE TOWARD THE HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THESE STORMS MOVE FARTHER EAST, THEY WILL
ENCOUNTER A MUCH MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES
UP TO 3000 J/KG. THINKING THE STORMS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY MAKE IT
INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND AFFECT LOCATIONS WEST OF A LIBERAL TO
MCLEAN LINE. A 30-35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
THIS EVENING, AND WITH ABOUT 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, THESE STORMS
MAY CONGEAL INTO A VERY LOOSELY ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BY 9 PM.
IT`S POSSIBLE THAT ONE OR TWO STORMS COULD BE SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM,
BUT A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED. DAMAGING
WINDS, QUARTER SIZE HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
HAZARDS. THE STORMS WILL MOVE OUT OF OUR AREA AND/OR DISSIPATE BY 3
AM.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY AFTERNOON: AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BEGIN BUILDING ACROSS
THE AREA TOMORROW. HOWEVER, A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
ONCE AGAIN DRIFT INTO THE FAR WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IF ANY STORMS DO MOVE IN, THEY COULD BE STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS WILL
ALSO BE ON THE RISE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT: THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ITS
INFLUENCE OVER A MUCH BROADER AREA AS WE START A NEW WORK WEEK.
THE UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR CONVECTION
POTENTIALLY MOVING INTO THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PANHANDLES
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. STILL CAN`T RULE OUT
ANOTHER STRONG STORM OR TWO AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

TUESDAY-SATURDAY: DIDN`T MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD AS MODELS
CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE ACROSS OR JUST WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN`T BE RULED OUT ANY
DAY, THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY. TEMPS WILL BE
QUITE TOASTY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 90S TO LOWER 100S EACH DAY.
TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY.

JACKSON

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE
20 PERCENT.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/08





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