Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 100418 AAB
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1018 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017

.AVIATION...
Gusty west to southwest winds will be common overnight. Then winds
will decrease around sunrise. The winds will gradually turn more to
the south in the afternoon. Skies are expected to remain VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 533 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

AVIATION...
Southwest winds around 15 knots this evening will pick up and turn to
the west behind a cold front around Midnight. The west winds will
then decrease by sunrise and then they will turn more to the south
and southwest by late afternoon on Tuesday. Skies should remain VFR.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 PM CST Mon Jan 9 2017/

DISCUSSION...A quiet short term forecast but busy extended. Surface
trough lee of the Rockies deepened over the area which brought our
gusty west to southwest winds. A weak cold front will push through
the area this evening. Winds overnight will still be in the 15kt
range. Winds will shift south to southwest on Wednesday and that will
bring temperatures back up into the low 70s again. Depending on how
quick the next surface trough moves out will have impacts on
Thursdays high`s, as a strong cold front will linger behind.

Thursday night onward is where things will get very dicey.  Models
have cold air engulfing the Panhandles by Thursday night into Friday
morning. Lately models have moved this cold air south a little too
quick as the Cap Rock tends to slow the cold air southward
progression by about 6-12 hours. An upper level low pressure system
to the southwest will transport warmer air aloft over the area, while
we deal with the surface cold front from the north. This is what will
create the complex weather forecast for the weekend.

The one thing models have been consistent about is that we do expect
precipitation for the majority of the weekend. But will it be rain,
freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow? There is too much uncertainty and
inconsistency in the models of where this boundary occurs. Then
there is the warm nose associated aloft. If the temperatures aloft
were just in the low to mid 30s confidence would be higher in
freezing rain or sleet. But we have a warm layer that ranges from
5000-8000ft with the temperatures aloft reaching the lower to mid
40s. These are not longer supercooled droplets. And although the
surface temperatures look to be below freezing, if the water is too
warm, and with the warm surface temperatures of the previous day,
just how long will it take before the rain can actually freeze on
contact.

By Sunday models diverge a bit on where they track the low, and
although one of the models suggests drier conditions by Sunday
afternoon, will continue the forecast with the lingering two models
that still suggest mixed precipitation through Sunday night into
early Monday morning.

Weber

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/3



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