Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221804
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
104 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

.AVIATION...18Z TAFS...

VFR conditions expected for the majority of the TAF period. Brief
MVFR conditions possible at KDHT as thunderstorms will be possible
this evening at or around the TAF site. Storms do not look like
they will make it to KAMA or KGUY. So for now have left them as
is, but should storms progress further east then amendments may be
needed. Winds will be breezy out of the south 10-20kts, gusting to
30kts at times. After 06Z winds should come down into the 10-25kt
range at all sites, but will remain out of the south. Lowered
CIG`s possible overnight at KDHT right now keeping VFR in the
TAFs, but would not rule out a BKN CIG below 3kft. While less
likely at KAMA and KGUY, lowered CIG`s may occur as well. Mainly
between 10-18Z.

Weber

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 441 AM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Southwesterly upper flow will allow for an increase in mid and
upper level moisture later today and tonight. Southerly to
southeasterly upslope flow will also advect low level moisture
into the Panhandles today and tonight into the weekend. Closed
upper low will develop over the Great Basin region by tonight and
Saturday as a longwave trough prevails over the western states
through the weekend and early next week. Convection is expected to
develop after 20Z or 21Z today across the far western portions of
the forecast area and then increasing tonight and this weekend
spreading over the remainder of the Panhandles. Convection later
today and this evening may become strong to marginally severe over
the western and perhaps central portions of the Panhandles.
Biggest concern, however, will be from very heavy rainfall which
could result in flooding or flash flooding. Best chances for the
very heavy rainfall are expected to be Saturday and Saturday
night.

Surface low expected over eastern Colorado with surface trough
extending south across eastern New Mexico today and tonight. A
cold front should push slowly south and east into the central
Rockies and central Plains states Saturday and Saturday night
before tracking into the northwest and northern Panhandles by late
Sunday. The cold front is forecast to push through the Panhandles
Sunday night. Much cooler conditions are expected for most of next
week behind the cold front. As the closed upper low weakens into
an open wave early next week as it tracks east towards the central
Plains states, another closed upper low is expected to develop
over the Great Basin region. This will allow for continued chances
for convection through the middle and latter half of next week
with drier conditions by next Friday.

Schneider

HYDROLOGY...
Mid and high level tropical moisture from the remnants of the
tropical system over Mexico will propagate north and northeast
across West Texas and the Panhandles by tonight and continuing
into early next week. Forecast model soundings suggest
precipitable water values should increase to around an inch and a
quarter to an inch and a half beginning later tonight through
Sunday and Sunday night. These values are in the 90th percentile
or higher for the Panhandles in late September. As a result,
included mention of heavy rainfall with convection beginning
tonight into Saturday and Saturday night mainly across the extreme
western portions of the Texas Panhandle tonight and then across
the western half Saturday and Saturday night. It may become
necessary to introduce hydrology highlights as early as this
afternoon or Saturday.

Schneider

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                89  64  80  61  75 /  10  30  40  60  60
Beaver OK                  95  70  87  67  80 /   5  20  30  50  70
Boise City OK              88  63  73  58  75 /  40  50  80  80  60
Borger TX                  92  69  85  64  79 /  10  20  30  60  60
Boys Ranch TX              91  65  81  62  78 /  20  30  60  80  60
Canyon TX                  89  65  79  61  76 /  10  30  40  70  60
Clarendon TX               89  67  83  65  78 /   5  10  20  30  60
Dalhart TX                 89  63  76  60  76 /  30  50  70  80  60
Guymon OK                  92  67  83  62  78 /  20  30  50  70  70
Hereford TX                88  64  78  61  76 /  20  30  40  70  60
Lipscomb TX                92  69  86  68  82 /   5  10  20  30  50
Pampa TX                   89  67  83  65  78 /  10  20  20  50  60
Shamrock TX                91  69  86  67  82 /   5  10  10  10  40
Wellington TX              92  69  87  68  84 /   5  10  10  10  30

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

89/11


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