Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 220409 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1109 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN EAST OF TERMINALS IN THE
NEAR TERM.  STRENGTHENING EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL KEEP MOISTURE
SUPPLIED FOR FUTURE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...AND WILL ALSO LEAD TO
MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.  FRONTAL
PASSAGE EXPECTED AROUND 12Z AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AND AROUND 16Z
AT KAMA.  WIDESPREAD OVERCAST ACROSS NORTHEAST HALF OF FORECAST AREA
WILL ENHANCE BAROCLINICITY ALONG STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR KAMA
BY 21Z WEDNESDAY.  SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST PART OF FORECAST AREA BEFORE
SUNSET. INSTABILITY AXIS MIGRATES ACROSS FORECAST AREA DURING
EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED.

COCKRELL

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 700 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/

AVIATION...
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHWEST PART OF FORECAST
AREA WILL LIKELY DRIFT WITHIN VICINITY OF KDHT AND KGUY DURING NEXT
FEW HOURS.  OTHERWISE...INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...PRIMARILY EAST OF THE TERMINALS.  COLD FRONT DROPS INTO
NORTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 12Z WEDNESDAY...THEN
REACHES SOUTHERN PART NEAR KAMA AROUND 16Z WEDNESDAY.  APPEARS THAT
LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP NORTH OF THE FRONT...PRODUCING IFR AND MVFR
CEILINGS AT NORTHERN TERMINALS AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY.  POST-FRONTAL
AIRMASS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STABLE MOST OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  NEAR
KAMA...ZONE OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  SURFACE BAROCLINICITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ALONG BOUNDARY DURING AFTERNOON DUE TO CONTRAST BETWEEN INSOLATION
AND LOW OVERCAST.  IN FACT...COULD SEE TRIPLE POINT SET UP VERY NEAR
KAMA AROUND 21Z WEDNESDAY...WITH DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM SAME.
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT DURING LATE AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY LEAD
TO DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

COCKRELL

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015/

SHORT TERM...THROUGH TONIGHT...

CURRENTLY THERE IS A LEE TROUGH IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IS SHOWING SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS.
AS THESE CLOUDS MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE AREA...WE MAY SEE SOME
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS DEVELOP.  A COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY IN
NORTHERN NEBRASKA IS MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH AND SHOULD BE THROUGH THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY MORNING.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AND MORE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO GO ACROSS THE
AREA.  THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN TONIGHT WITH THE NOSE OF IT
OVER THE NORTHEAST PANHANDLES.  THIS AREA WILL BE A FOCUS POINT FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP DUE TO THE CONVERGENCE CREATED WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WITH TEMPS TODAY BEING HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY AND THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT PREVENTING RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT MIN TEMPS TO BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT.

MB/KB

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ANY
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS CONVECTION CAN HELP TO INITIATE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION LATER IN THE DAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD IN
ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO CALIFORNIA. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL IN THE VICINITY WITH WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE AIR IN THE
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL PROVED
SOME UPPER FORCING BUT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES IN THE
AFTERNOON...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE THAT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW MEXICO CAN LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BULK SHEAR CAN
SUPPORT ORGANIZED AND SEVERE STORMS WHERE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON WEDNESDAYS
STORMS AND WHERE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
MOVE FURTHER EASTWARD AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA.
THE DRYLINE WILL MIX FURTHER EASTWARD...OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS AND
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES. MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR EAST OF THE DRYLINE WILL
SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL DOES NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE AS ON WEDNESDAY...STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THIS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
FRIDAY. GIVEN THE PATH OF THIS SYSTEM...THE DRY SLOT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THUS WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE THIS WOULD NORMALLY LEAD TO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS...RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND GREEN UP OF FUELS SHOULD NEGATE
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDS IN SATURDAY BEFORE AN UPPER DISTURBANCE
MOVES TOWARD THE AREA SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM CAN BRING THE NEXT CHANCE
OF RAIN TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE PANHANDLES SUNDAY EVENING. A COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY BUT AT THIS JUNCTURE IT LOOKS TO ONLY
COOL OFF THE AREA SLIGHTLY. MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND LOW 80S
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

03/15




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