Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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863
FXUS64 KAMA 300515
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1115 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z Issuance...All sites should remain VFR for the next 24 hours.
Winds will remain light and turn from northwesterly to southwesterly.
Clouds may hang in overnight and then thin out during the day.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 518 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

AVIATION...
00Z Issuance...VFR conditions expected to persist through the period.
Northerly winds will begin gradually turning counterclockwise around
sunrise and become westerly. Winds look to stay below 15kts for the
day and clouds should clear out overnight.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 455 PM CST Tue Nov 29 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Through tonight, a fast moving upper level shortwave trof embedded in
the overall large wcntrl and cntrl states trof will zip across the
srn high plains. The atmosphere is expected to remain rather dry,
with perhaps some virga showers possible, leading to a few sprinkles
if anything manages to reach the ground.

Otherwise, dry weather is anticipated through Thursday as the cntrl
states trof translates eastward.

The next upper level storm system is then progged to dig swd deep
into Baja California and northern Mexico this weekend, then weaken
and lift northeast across wcntrl TX towards the Red River Valley of
nrn TX by late Monday. Our forecast area will be on the northern
fringe of any precipitation associated with this storm system.
Numerical weather models continue to disagree on precipitation
prospects along with type. The 12Z ECMWF has trended warmer with the
overall temperature profile compared to previous runs while the 12Z
GFS has also warmed up slightly. Given these trends, have reduced
snowfall accumulations to less than 2 inches at any one particular
location at this time, and restricted the threat for snow to Friday
night and Saturday morning. Included slgt chc pops for light rain for
southeast TX Panhandle Saturday evening before the upper level storm
system loses its grip on the region. Dry weather is then slated for
Sunday through Tuesday.

Medium range models continue to suggest a much colder airmass will
invade the forecast area towards the end of this fcst cycle and
beyond. It remains to be seen whether any winter precipitation will
accompany this very cold airmass just beyond next Tuesday.

Andrade

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/88



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