Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 141113 AAA
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
513 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

.AVIATION...
North winds around 15 knots should prevail for much of the day.
Winds will then turn more to the northwest toward sunset and they
will decrease to 10 knots or less. A few flurries will be possible
at DHT and GUY, but do not think it will lower conditions below
VFR. VFR conditions will prevail at the AMA TAF site as well.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 245 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Latest observations and LAPS data early this morning shows some
light snow across portions of Colorado associated with an upper
level perturbation moving south across eastern Utah. High cirrus
deck is advancing as far east as the northern TX Panhandle. With
the latest 00Z RAOB data from KAMA and upstream at KDDC showing
very dry mid and lower levels, it appears it will take quite a bit
of moistening of the column for any precipitation to form.
However, some of the model data does show an increase of
isentropic lift along the snowfall well to the north, but in this
very dry airmass over the Panhandles, a few flurries to light snow
showers by mid morning across the northwest Panhandles maybe the
extent of the precipitation. The entire region during the day will
be under partly to mostly cloudy skies with temperatures below
average in the 40s before skies begin to clear out this evening
from north to south.

Winds will shift back to southwesterly tomorrow which should warm
temperatures back to near and above average with mostly clear
skies. Going into the weekend is where the forecast becomes a bit
more complex. Some of the latest 14/00Z model data are showing a
quasi-stationary mid level low pressure system just inland off of
the western Mexico coastline. With some of the numerical guidance
illustrating more of a 850-700 hPa 160-190 deg wind direction
Saturday afternoon which may advect some clouds into our eastern
areas as the main mid level feature gets absorbed into the mean
flow, this could lead to an isolated shower in the far eastern
areas as well by late Saturday night into Sunday morning as the
bulk of the precipitation will move northeast into central
Oklahoma. Leading up to this however, strong southwesterly winds
will cause possible elevated fire weather conditions for most
locations in the Panhandles. Will have to monitor and update
forecast accordingly as we get closer to Saturday. Highs for the
first half of the weekend will be into the 60s before a cold front
comes through early Sunday morning and drops temperatures back in
to the 40s for highs on Sunday.

Southwest winds will moderate temperatures once again for the work
week next week with highs generally above average. Some long
range forecast models are indicating another upper level trough
developing in southern New Mexico and possibly having some
moisture associated with it early next week. Still several days
out and will be monitored.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible going into the day
on Saturday. Min RH values of 16-20% along with 20 ft winds out
of the southwest of 15-20 kts, especially in the early afternoon
hours may warrant these conditions. However, timing of the cold
front with weak northerly flow in its wake along with low level
moisture advecting into parts of the eastern Panhandles Saturday
afternoon are caveats in the forecast that may make this forecast
rather complex and could damper fire weather conditions. If the
aforementioned RH values and 20 ft winds hold true however,
conditions do exist for elevated fire weather conditions.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

15/29


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