Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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218
FXUS64 KAMA 131745
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1245 PM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.AVIATION...
18Z Issuance...General VFR conditions expected, but MVFR
conditions or lower could affect taf sites as thunderstorms pass
through the area from southwest to northeast after 00Z. Winds will
generally be aob 12kts, except in thunderstorms, until after 15Z
tomorrow when winds will ramp up and gust up to 30kts. KDHT may be
the only site which may not see storms tonight so for now have
left out of taf.

Beat

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 911 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

UPDATE...
Updated temps for trends based on location of front. Also added
chances for precip in the 00-06Z time period as CAMs and short
term models agree on precip coming in earlier than expected due to
short wave timing into the area. Storms tonight may become strong
to marginally severe. CAPE is pretty meager, but plenty of shear
and moisture along with possible frontal boundary for focusing
point for lift. Storms look to move in from the southwest and
cross the area moving northeasterly.

Beat

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 634 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

AVIATION...
For the 12z TAFs...
Good flying weather expected today.  No clouds expected until
mid-level clouds begins streaming in from the southwest late this
afternoon and this evening.  Weak cold front causes surface winds
at northern terminals to be northwest or north to begin the day,
with a return to south and east as the front lifts north.  Cold
front gives a northerly component to surface winds at AMA between
15z and 19z today.  No visibility restrictions or low clouds
expected.

Cockrell

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CDT Fri Oct 13 2017/

DISCUSSION...
An upper high over the northwest Gulf states will continue to
provide a southwesterly flow aloft across the Panhandles. This
will allow sub-tropical moisture to track northeast out of Mexico
and across the forecast area. A cold front over southwest Kansas
and southeastern Colorado will push slowly south into the Oklahoma
and northern half of the Texas Panhandles today before becoming
stationary by late today. The frontal boundary is expected to lift
back to the north and east, just north of the forecast area,
tonight as a warm front before surging south again as a cold front
by late Saturday and Saturday evening. The cold front will push
through all of the forecast area by late Saturday evening and
Saturday night. An upper trough will approach the Panhandles by
Saturday and Saturday night and possibly some isolated convection
might develop late tonight over portions of the forecast area.
Otherwise, better chances will be mainly over the eastern
Panhandles Saturday and Saturday night before exiting the forecast
area by 12Z Sunday. Much cooler and breezy to windy conditions are
in store for the Panhandles following the passage of the cold
front Saturday night and Sunday. Another cold front will be
possible around the middle of next week or end of next week,
however dry conditions will prevail after Saturday night and
Sunday through the end of next week.

Schneider

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

16/2



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