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000
FXUS64 KAMA 122249 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
549 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

.AVIATION...
SOUTHEAST WINDS AT DHT AND AMA WILL TURN MORE TO THE SOUTH AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS. AT
GUY...SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BY AFTERNOON AT ALL SITES TO
AROUND 15 KNOTS. SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...
INCLUDING OUR FCST AREA...THROUGH FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THEME. THIS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROJECTED
TO SLIDE TO THE E LATER FRIDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND...
ALLOWING A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE AROUND THE
WRN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT THRU EARLY SAT
EVENING. MODELS DEPICT A THREAT OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS PRIMARILY
THE CNTRL AND ERN SECTIONS OF THE PNHDLS SATURDAY...THEN ERN TX PNHDL AND
ERN OK PNHDL EARLY SAT EVENING. SLGT CHC TO LOW END CHC POPS ARE STILL
PLAUSIBLE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGHEST VALUES IN THE ERN ZONES.
DRY WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
AXIS WILL REDEVELOP FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS IS CRITICAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT PNHDLS WILL BE DIRECTLY
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE...WHICH WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY
WEATHER...OR TO THE NORTH OF IT...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST MINOR SHORTWAVE
TROFS TRACKING ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS ON THE NRN FLANK OF THE RIDGE.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS WETTEST OVERALL WITH PRECIP CHCS ACROSS NEARLY ALL
OF THE FCST AREA SUN THRU TUES NIGHT. ON THE OTHER HAND THE GFS IS
DRIEST AND ONLY HINTS AT SOME PRECIP FOR ROUGHLY NERN SECTIONS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT. DUE TO MODEL DISCREPANCIES...DECIDED TO
RETAIN PREVIOUS FCST PCKG WHICH GENERALLY LEANS A BIT MORE TOWARDS
GFS PENDING BETTER AGREEMENT.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME DUE TO RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS...GREENUP...MINIMAL FUEL LOADING...AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOILS
AS SEEN BY RECENT ERC VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/05