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000
FXUS64 KAMA 161139
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
639 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

.AVIATION...
LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT AT KAMA DUE TO EXPANDING LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE EDGE OF THIS STRATUS A
MERE 15 MILES WEST OF THE TERMINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS
CLOUD DECK WILL SCATTER BY 14Z. OTHERWISE...INITIALLY LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS THIS MORNING WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME A SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO
SOUTHERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS...BUT COVERAGE/DURATION OF STORMS WILL BE LOW SO
CONFIDENCE ONLY SUPPORTS A MENTION OF SCATTERED CUMULUS AT THIS
TIME. IN ADDITION...PROGS SUGGEST THE REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 17/06Z. THUS HAVE INTRODUCED 1KFT CIGS AT KAMA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/

DISCUSSION...
HAVE ONLY MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST.  FOR TODAY...
PATCHY MORNING FOG WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE EASTERN THREE FOURTHS OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
WILL BE SITUATED.

HAVE REORIENTED CONFIGURATION OF THUNDERSTORM POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.  HAVE CONCENTRATED FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG
EXPECTED ZONE OF HIGHER LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER 700 MB
THETA-E...WITH POTENTIAL FOR EASTWARD MOVEMENT DURING THE EVENING.
THUS...FAR WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE IS EXCLUDED...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE
ACROSS REMAINING SECTIONS.  WILL STILL MENTION POSSIBLE STRONG TO
SEVERE IN HWO DUE TO ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR.  EXPECT COVERAGE
TO BE LIMITED BY STRENGTH OF CAP.

FRIDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE HOT AND DRY...WITH SOUTHWESTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE REACHING 100 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.  HAVE RETAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA...WHERE DRYLINE EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED AHEAD OF DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE TROF.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.  DRY FORECAST THEREAFTER.

MODELS IN SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT WITH MONDAY COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  APPEARS THAT NOTABLE COOLING ON MONDAY WILL BE CONFINED
TO NORTHERN SECTIONS...WITH ALL SECTIONS BELOW 90 ON TUESDAY.
GRADUAL WARMUP COMMENCES ON WEDNESDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE.  ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ONE
THIRD OF THE PANHANDLES.  ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL SECTIONS OF THE PANHANDLES
SATURDAY AND AND SUNDAY.  ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                94  59 100  64  96 /  20  20   0   5   5
BEAVER OK                  87  62  91  66  98 /  10  20  10  10  20
BOISE CITY OK              90  56  94  60  92 /  20  20   0   5   5
BORGER TX                  93  63  96  68  96 /  20  20   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              95  58  98  62  95 /  20  20   0   5   5
CANYON TX                  94  57  99  63  96 /  20  20   0   5   5
CLARENDON TX               88  65  97  67  99 /  10  20   5   5  20
DALHART TX                 90  55  97  57  93 /  20  10   0   5   5
GUYMON OK                  92  59  91  60  98 /  20  20   5   5  20
HEREFORD TX                94  60 101  64  94 /  10   5   0   5   5
LIPSCOMB TX                85  62  88  66  98 /  10  20  10  10  20
PAMPA TX                   88  63  93  66  96 /  20  20   5   5  20
SHAMROCK TX                86  65  90  68  98 /  10  20  10  10  20
WELLINGTON TX              88  67  93  69  99 /  10  20  10  10  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/03