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000
FXUS64 KAMA 132331
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
631 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY WILL BUILD BACK TO THE
WEST BY LATE TUESDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND FAR
WEST TEXAS LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS. A SURFACE LOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS BY LATE TUESDAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY AND
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS
UNTIL AROUND 01Z TO 02Z TUESDAY...THEN DIMINISHING TO 5 TO 15 KNOTS
OR LESS AFTER 02Z TUESDAY. THE SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER 14Z TO 15Z TUESDAY TO AROUND 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2013/

DISCUSSION...

ONLY A FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE INHERITED FORECAST. THE OVERALL
GIST OF THE STORY IS THAT WE WILL HAVE A STRING OF HOT DAYS...WITH
THU THROUGH SAT LIKELY THE HOTTEST 3. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE SHOT AT
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WED AFTERNOON AND THU AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN
EASTWARD MOVING DRYLINE.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
THIS PERIOD WILL BE WARM AND DRY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
ONLY THE EASTERN PANHANDLES WILL SEE SLIM STORM CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOONS THESE DAYS AS MODEST CAPPING IS CHALLENGED BY LOW LVL
DRYLINE CONFLUENCE. IF ANY STORMS GO UP...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS...WITH INCREASING SHEAR MAKING
STRONG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THU. ON THU...A RIDGE
RIDING SHRTWV ALONG WITH A DRYLINE POSITION POSSIBLY HANGING UP FROM
GUYMON TO AMARILLO COULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR STORMS IN THE ERN
PANHANDLES. THE INCREASED SHEAR FROM THE SHRTWV SHOULD ALLOW STORM
ORGANIZATION IN ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. HAVE THEREFORE ADDED 20 POPS
TO THE ERN ZONES THU.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY AND WARM. A BIT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
EVENTUALLY TRY TO SLIDE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK...POSSIBLY BRINGING SOME
HEAT RELIEF AS NW UPR FLOW SETS UP.

TEMPERATURES...
AFTER ANALYZING WIND DIRECTIONS/SPEEDS AND H85 TEMPS FROM KAMA
SOUNDINGS FOR RECENT WARM DAYS BACK INTO APRIL...HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT MID TO UPPER 90S WILL MAKE THEIR WAY TO THE
PANHANDLES BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE SW TX PANHANDLE WILL
PROBABLY BE THE WARMEST LATE THIS WEEK, WITH 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE
THU-SAT (BEST CHC FRI) GIVEN H85 TEMPS OF 30-31C. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE HEAT PUMPING ON SUNDAY...BUT HAVE HEDGED HIGHS A BIT COOLER THAN
SAT GIVEN A SLIGHTLY COOLER GFS SOLUTION.

SIMPSON

FIRE WEATHER...

ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE PANHANDLES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS SSW 20 FOOT WINDS RANGE
FROM 15-20 MPH AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS.
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY. AS A DRYLINE MOVES EAST EVERY AFTERNOON...ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP BEHIND IT EACH DAY FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

SIMPSON

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

11/16