Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 221721

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

18Z Issuance...VFR conditions will lower this evening as storms go
through the area. Storms are expected to progress from northwest
to southeast between 23Z and 06Z. Ceilings will recover a bit and
winds will calm slightly after storms pass before a cold front
pushes through and causes winds to ramp up with gusts up to 40kts
and ceilings to drop to possibly MVFR or lower. Confidence on
ceiling heights is kind of low, but could go lower than tafs.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 637 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/


For the 12Z TAFs:

VFR conditions should prevail throughout the vast majority of the
TAF. The main concern is the thunderstorm potential later today.
Thunderstorm chances could start as early as late afternoon and
go through the evening hours into Friday morning. These chances
should mainly impact KDHT and KGUY, but they certainly have the
potential to maintain and make their way into KAMA. For now, only
mentioned thunderstorm vicinity for KDHT and KGUY which have the
better chances. Low level wind shear may also be a threat Friday
morning. This will only be of concern in the non-convective
environment, but still a potential threat that needs
consideration. For example, KAMA has signs for a 55 knot jet
around 500-1000 feet between 00z and 06Z. This will all be
dependent on convection because low level wind shear is assumed
when thunderstorms are around. All three terminals could
potentially be impacted by low level wind shear. Will wait until
we get closer for better analysis.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

Surface low over southwest Kansas with a surface trough extending
south off the caprock across the eastern portions of the Texas and
Oklahoma Panhandles. Abundant low level moisture across the
forecast area with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Upper
high over the southwestern states will allow for an active
northwesterly flow pattern across the Panhandles today through the
weekend. Shortwave trough forecast to drop south and east out of
northern/northeastern New Mexico and southern/southeastern
Colorado by 18Z today and then tracks into the Panhandles by 00Z
Friday. Convection will likely develop over the higher terrain and
mountains of Colorado and New Mexico by 21Z today which will
propagate into the western Oklahoma and northwest Texas Panhandles
between 21Z today and 00Z Friday. Convection will spread across
the remainder of the forecast area this evening and tonight as
they continue moving south and east. Some storms likely becoming
strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

Cold front to push into the Panhandles tonight and early Friday as
additional shortwave troughs track into the forecast area
overnight tonight. Convection should continue through the weekend
although severe potential Friday and over the weekend not as
likely as today and earlier, however heavy rainfall potential and
possible flooding concerns may increase by the weekend. Model
soundings indicate PWATs of 1.2 to 1.4 inches by Friday and Friday
night which are in the 90th to Max percentile for June 22 and
June 23. Not as hot behind the front Friday and over the weekend
and should be below normal for late June with highs mainly in the
70s and low 80s Friday through Sunday. Warmer conditions again for
the early half of next week with precip chances on the decrease
early next week and drier conditions expected by the middle of
next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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