Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 120403
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1003 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions to prevail throughout the 06Z TAF cycle. Light
overnight winds are anticipated to increase during the late
morning hours. We should see winds topping out between 18Z and
21Z as gusts reach up to 25kt. As we approach the 00Z hour, expect
to see gusts dissipating as surface winds back towards the
southeast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 PM CST Sun Feb 11 2018/

DISCUSSION...
A mid-level trough is pushing south over the Pacific Northwest
towards the Great Basin region. This will push the Panhandles into
southwest flow for the next few days and bring downsloping winds
which will raise temps for the beginning of the workweek and keep
us dry. By Thursday though, a shortwave pushes through the Great
Plains and sends a cold front towards the area. This is where the
greatest prospect and problems arise for the forecast. Models are
slowly agreeing more towards a drier and cold solution. Yesterday
the GFS was running with lots of cold and snow and the ECMWF
wanted warm and rain. Today the ECMWF almost went completely dry
and brings temps closer to the GFS solution. Thus have lowered
temps for Friday and Saturday to start the trend towards colder.
Thinking that we will likely end up dry and with no precip again
since that has been the trend over the last 120 days, but for now
have left in minimal pops for Friday and end the precip late
Friday night. With the trend going colder, have marked the grids
as snow, which agrees with the forecast soundings for the area
during the precip times. Amounts have lowered from yesterday with
the models trending drier, and are now below an inch everywhere
with the southern TX Panhandle still favored. Wouldn`t be
surprised if models continue to degrade moisture and we just end
up in the cold and dry again.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

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