Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221513 AAB
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1013 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016

.UPDATE...
HAVE DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING IN THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS
PANHANDLES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM IN NEW MEXICO AND
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

LORENZEN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 650 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AND WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THROUGH AROUND 15Z THIS MORNING...WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...THEN SHOULD INCREASE IN SPEED AND BECOME
SOUTHWESTERLY AT ALL SITES. LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 00Z
SATURDAY.

NF

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 401 AM CDT FRI APR 22 2016/

DISCUSSION...
VERY FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST.  WARM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSES THE
AREA.  ON SATURDAY...A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH ACTS TO MAINTAIN A TROF TO ITS SOUTH.  INCREASING SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY
PROVIDE THE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THESE SECTIONS.  DRY WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AS DRY AIR IS DIRECTED INTO PANHANDLES SOUTH OF
NEXT DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW.  THIS LOW EXPECTED TO PASS WELL NORTH OF
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK...WITH CHANCES FOR OUR NEXT RAINY PERIOD BEGINNING
THURSDAY.  03

COCKRELL

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY IN THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES...AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT.  SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE
ON SATURDAY.  ON SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15
TO 25 MPH RANGE.  ALTHOUGH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...GREEN FUELS SHOULD PRECLUDE
ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.  SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE AGAIN ON
TUESDAY...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MOST
SECTIONS.  FUELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MOIST FOR ELEVATED OR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.  LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.  INCREASING EAST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
MOIST...WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN RETURNING THURSDAY. 03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                78  52  83  56  85 /   0   0  10   5   5
BEAVER OK                  80  54  86  59  84 /   0   0  10  10   5
BOISE CITY OK              77  53  83  47  79 /   5   5  20  20   0
BORGER TX                  80  56  84  60  86 /   0   0  10  10   5
BOYS RANCH TX              80  53  85  55  86 /   0   5  10  20   0
CANYON TX                  79  51  84  53  85 /   0   0   5   5   5
CLARENDON TX               77  52  80  57  84 /   0   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 79  51  84  49  83 /   5   5  20  20   0
GUYMON OK                  79  55  86  56  83 /   0   0  20  20   5
HEREFORD TX                79  51  83  53  84 /   0   0  10  10   0
LIPSCOMB TX                79  55  83  60  84 /   0   0   5  10  10
PAMPA TX                   78  52  82  58  84 /   0   0  10  10   5
SHAMROCK TX                78  52  81  56  84 /   0   0   5   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              78  53  80  56  84 /   0   0   0   5  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

10/15



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