Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 020908
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
308 AM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW WHICH BROUGHT RAIN TO THE BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED
PANHANDLES YESTERDAY HAS CONTINUED ITS EAST-NORTHEAST TRACK JUST
NORTH OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE THIS MORNING. THIS POSITIONING IS
SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS SUGGESTED AND AS A
RESULT HAS KEPT SNOW TO A MINIMUM OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.
NOW THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SNOW FLURRIES LATER ON THIS
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS OUT OF COLORADO AND SWEEPS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. THESE CHANCES REMAIN FOCUSED OVER THE OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLES DUE TO A LACK OF MOISTURE FURTHER
SOUTH. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS..IF ANY...ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT
AND LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH. AS SUCH HAVE EXPIRED THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR CIMARRON COUNTY EARLY. BY THIS AFTERNOON...ALL FLURRIES
SHOULD END AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES INTO IOWA. IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM THE PANHANDLES WILL SEE SLOW HEIGHT RISES IN DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT FOR WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST MODELS SHOW A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPPING OUT OF
COLORADO LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS
DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN PRIOR TO THIS
SHORTWAVE PASSAGE AND THUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THURSDAY AND SHOULD
HELP TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...LOWER 50S.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE THE DAYS WHEN THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE PANHANDLES. FORECAST MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST WITH THE ECMWF TAKING THE LOW
FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT WE MAY NOT SEE ANY PRECIPITATION. THE GFS/CMC
ARE IS BETTER AGREEMENT AND SHOW THAT THE WESTERN PANHANDLES MIGHT
SEE SOME RAIN AND POSSIBLY SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
HAVE INTRODUCED LOW END POPS INTO THE FORECAST FOR THIS CHANCE BUT
EXPECT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS WE GO THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                41  20  39  20  50 /   5   5   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  37  17  40  17  49 /  10   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              33  14  36  14  45 /  20   5  10  10   0
BORGER TX                  40  23  40  20  50 /   5   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              41  19  40  18  50 /   5   5   5   5   0
CANYON TX                  42  19  40  19  50 /   5   5   5   5   0
CLARENDON TX               45  22  42  22  51 /   5   5   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 37  19  38  17  47 /  10   5  10  10   0
GUYMON OK                  36  18  38  17  48 /  10   0  10  10   0
HEREFORD TX                42  19  40  19  50 /   5   5   5   5   0
LIPSCOMB TX                40  21  41  20  49 /   5   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   40  21  38  21  49 /   5   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                46  22  43  22  51 /   5   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              49  24  45  22  53 /   5   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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