Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 071732

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1132 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017


For the 18Z TAFs:

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the valid TAF period. Main
things will be the high clouds later in the period as well as
breezy conditions this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon. Low end
chance for possible low level wind shear tomorrow morning as a jet
is being progged to be over the local area; Its borderline now.
For now, I will not mention this in the current TAF since it
doesn`t have the 30 knot difference between the surface and 2000
feet aloft, but it is still worth mentioning in this discussion
for planning purposes.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 549 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

12z TAF Cycle:

VFR conditions expected with periods of mid and high level cloud
cover. North winds around 10 knots will increase to 15-20 knots
and become northwesterly this afternoon before decreasing again
during the evening and overnight.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 425 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2017/

The main theme of this fcst pckg continues to be the prolonged dry
weather. Very little has changed with respect to the various
numerical weather model progs for the next 7 days. All short
range and medium range models continue to suggest the highly
amplified upper air pattern will persist, featuring a strong upper
level ridge of high pressure around the western third of the
United States with a correspondingly deep upper level trof of low
pressure covering most of the eastern states. This particular
pattern appears to be locked in place for the next 7 days
according to the latest models, and is a dry one for our fcst
area. The coolest day of the next 7 should be today. Breezy to
windy conditions are anticipated for Friday due to a tight sfc
pressure gradient. Moderating temperatures are also expected after
today, reaching a peak on Sunday.


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected to develop Friday
afternoon across most of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles due to
20 foot north winds of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts along with
forecast minimum relative humidity values around 20 percent.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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