Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 162047
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
331 PM CDT THU OCT 16 2014

.DISCUSSION...

RIDGING IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS SOUTH OF A LOW SCOOTING
ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PLAINS.  TO OUR WEST A CLOSED LOW WEST
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL LIFT TO NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY EVENING YIELDING A BIT OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WV INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL NM.  ALL
THAT SAID...PRETTY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS OTHER
THAN SOME HIGH CLOUDS WHICH SHOULD SLOWLY BECOME LESS DENSE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON BUT THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED BAJA LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  THE PLEASANT
WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE PANHANDLE. /LUB26

BEYOND FRIDAY EVENING...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE SLOW APPROACH
OF A CUTOFF LOW/UPPER TROUGH TOWARDS THE PANHANDLES FROM THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THE BULK OF THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY NOT
BE FELT UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT THERE ARE A FEW ITEMS OF
INTEREST TO ADDRESS PRIOR TO THEN.

FIRSTLY...A WEAKENING IMPULSE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE PANHANDLES
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BRINGING WITH IT A BIT OF MID AND UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODEST FORCING. WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL LIKELY BE
SOMEWHAT DRY ACROSS THE AREA WHEN IT ARRIVES...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...PRIMARILY WEST OF THE I-27 CORRIDOR BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION TO THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THIS SUBTLE WAVE DEPARTS...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM SLIGHTLY AND KEEPING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MINIMAL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
WEEK...ASIDE FROM PERHAPS A FEW STRAY SHOWERS ACROSS THE EXTREME
WESTERN PANHANDLE.  A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A PROGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES MAY REACH THE REGION LATE MONDAY...BUT
IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES OR
PRECIPITATION.

BIGGER CHANGES ARE SET TO TAKE PLACE BEGINNING TUESDAY...AS THE
MEANDERING CUTOFF LOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME PHASED WITH AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CREEP CLOSER TO THE
AREA. WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SUBSTANTIALLY FAR APART IN ITS
DEPICTION OF THE UPPER PATTERN DURING THIS PERIOD...OPTED TO LEAN
TOWARD THE ECMWF BOTH IN TIMING AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES GIVEN ITS
RECENT SUCCESS. UNDER THIS SCENARIO...THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
DURING THIS PERIOD EXIST WEST OF I-27 BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY.  /LUB16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                48  71  47  67  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
BEAVER OK                  44  72  45  69  46 /   0   0   0   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              43  69  46  66  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
BORGER TX                  47  73  50  68  49 /   0   0   0  10  10
BOYS RANCH TX              47  72  46  67  47 /   0   0   0  20  10
CANYON TX                  47  72  45  68  46 /   0   0   0  20  10
CLARENDON TX               49  73  47  70  45 /   0   0   0  10  10
DALHART TX                 44  69  45  66  47 /   0   0   0  10  10
GUYMON OK                  44  71  47  69  47 /   0   0   0   5  10
HEREFORD TX                45  72  44  67  45 /   0   0   0  20  10
LIPSCOMB TX                47  73  48  68  48 /   0   0   0   5  10
PAMPA TX                   48  69  46  67  46 /   0   0   0  10  10
SHAMROCK TX                49  75  46  70  46 /   0   0   0   5  10
WELLINGTON TX              50  76  51  72  50 /   0   0   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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