Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 181732
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 PM CDT MON JUL 18 2016

.UPDATE...
As of 1700 UTC, an surface trough can be seen with the latest
surface observations with its axis across the southwestern TX
Panhandle along the TX/NM border. As a broad upper level high
pressure drifts to the northeast across northwestern OK, the main
weather feature today will be the gusty winds across the CWA as winds
will shift from the S-SE to more S-SW gusting at times over 20 kts,
especially in the mid to late afternoon hours. Some of the latest 12Z
guidance output shows a very small area of PVA moving NW towards NE
New Mexico as the surface based trough drifts north, there are some
isolated chances of some thunderstorms across the NW Panhandles,
especially across the far western OK Panhandle where some models
indicate a possible lee side low in SE CO, but confidence is not
high at this time. Otherwise, thunderstorm coverage will decrease as
we go into early Tuesday morning as high pressure builds back into
the region. Winds will also decrease to around 10 kts as we go into
the early Tuesday morning time frame as a low level jet decouples
from the sfc.

LFM/Bieda

&&

.AVIATION...
Latest 18Z TAF forecast shows VFR conditions across all TAF sites.
Winds will start S-SW and shift to to S-SE after 00Z Tuesday as a
surface feature exits our region to the north. A slight chance of
a thunderstorm is possible in the far northwestern Panhandles around
00Z Tuesday, but probability remains low and will handle with
amendments. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to continue
straight through to the end of the TAF period.

LFM/Bieda

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                96  68  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
Beaver OK                  97  71 102  73 104 /   0   0   0   5   0
Boise City OK              95  68  98  69 100 /  10  20   0   5   0
Borger TX                  99  72 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   5   5
Boys Ranch TX              99  69  98  71 101 /   0   0   0   5   5
Canyon TX                  97  68  97  70  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
Clarendon TX               96  69  97  72  98 /   0   0   0   5   5
Dalhart TX                 98  66  98  68 101 /  10   5   0   5   5
Guymon OK                 100  70  99  72 103 /   0   5   0   5   0
Hereford TX                98  67  96  69  97 /   0   0   0   5   5
Lipscomb TX                96  71 100  73 101 /   0   0   0   5   0
Pampa TX                   96  68  96  71  98 /   0   0   0   5   0
Shamrock TX                95  71  99  73 101 /   0   0   0   5   0
Wellington TX              97  72 100  74 102 /   0   0   0   5   0

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 401 AM CDT MON JUL 18 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Water vapor imagery show upper low spinning over pac NW with ridge
of high pressure over souther Plains. At the surface as of 08z...
a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm over Deaf Smith an Oldham
counties persist... but will continue to dissipate over the next
few hours.

Expect more of the same tomorrow as ridge continues to strengthen
over the area. Highs will be in the mid-high 90s with winds out
of southwest early then backing to south-southeast by afternoon. A
weak lee low will try to develop over southeast CO similar to
Sunday in response to differential heating... which may help
spark a few showers and thunderstorms over western OK Panhandle
and northwestern TX panhandle. Also can`t rule out a residual
boundary from Sunday`s convection triggering a storm. CAPE will be
very limited as dew points progged to be low 50s with marginal
mid- level laps rates over western zones... deep layer shear will
almost be non- existent with upper high overhead. Moreover... any
isolated storm that develops will be below severe limits.

For the extended...The high pressure will continue to sit over
the area through the week resulting in mostly dry and hot
conditions area wide. Models are hinting at some westward shift to
the ridge by next weekend... resulting in some weak northwesterly
flow and possibly some increasing chances for rain.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

29/98/1


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