Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 162321 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
621 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LOW CHANCE
FOR FOG POSSIBLE AT KAMA, AND EVEN LESS LIKELY AT KDHT/KGUY,
OVERNIGHT BETWEEN 07Z TO 15Z BUT AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ANY THAT
DEVELOPS SHOULD STAY WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE TERMINALS. WINDS SHOULD
STAY UP ENOUGH TO INHIBIT ANY DEVELOPMENT. HIGH CLOUDS FROM HURRICANE
ODILE SHOULD BE THE MOST NOTICEABLE WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MOULTON

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 454 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...
A TREND TOWARDS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL POTENTIAL IS IN THE OFFING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK..DEPENDING ON
MODEL HANDLING.

THE MAIN CULPRIT WHICH WILL CAUSE AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL WILL BE THE
REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM ODILE. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS
FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED AND CARRIED NEWD THRU AZ...NM
AND INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AND EARLY SATURDAY. HAVE RAISED
POPS AND INCLUDED MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE GRIDS FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT BASED ON PROGGED MODEL TIMING SUCH AS THE ECMWF AND
GFS. LINGERING SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A COLD
FRONT IS SLATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FCST AREA AROUND SATURDAY. ECMWF
IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS BOUNDARY...SO HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A
COMPROMISE.

IT APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PROGGED
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF OFF SRN CA COAST WILL EJECT EWD AND NEWD MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY AND MAY RESULT IN THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE DURG THIS TIME PERIOD FOR THIS PCKG
DUE TO MODEL HANDLING DIFFERENCES.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

19/09





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