Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 130521
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1221 AM CDT SAT SEP 13 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS...MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST AT KAMA AND KDHT THROUGH THE
MORNING...BEFORE SCATTERING OUT TO VFR BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS
AT KGUY MAY LIFT INTO THE LOW VFR RANGE EARLY THIS MORNING PRIOR TO
SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO
AROUND 20 KTS THIS AFTERNOON AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO
THE EAST.

KB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014/

SHORT TERM...CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE PANHANDLES WITH WARMER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS RETURNING SATURDAY.

AREA OF RAIN HAS MOVED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TX PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON WHILE A LINE OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE LOW ROLLING
PLAINS. THE ACTIVITY SOUTH OF THE AMA FORECAST AREA IS BEING DRIVEN
BY WEAK UPPER LIFT VIA MINOR UPPER IMPULSES...ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. ANY
LINGERING RAIN IN THE PANHANDLES WILL END THIS EVENING AS A SURFACE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SLIDES FURTHER SOUTHWARD.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO RELAX...CAUSING NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS TO DIMINISH BELOW 10 MPH. MAY NEED TO WATCH OUT FOR
AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE WET SOILS AND LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW.
OTHERWISE A CHILLY NIGHT IS IN STORE WITH LOWS REMAINING NEARLY
STEADY OR FALLING A FEW DEGREES INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY WARM SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE FLOW FURTHER VEERS OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE UPPER FLOW FLATTENS IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER
TROUGH LIFTING TOWARD QUEBEC. HOWEVER QUITE A BIT OF CLOUD COVER WILL
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH HIGH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINING IN
PLACE. DESPITE THESE CLOUDS...PLEASANT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 60S TO
THE MID 70S ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL BE
WARMER...WITH LOW TO MID 50S OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM...
EVEN WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY DUE TO LESS CLOUD COVER AND
BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE START OF THE
NEW WORK WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA MONDAY. AND
WHILE THIS FRONT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH EARLIER TODAY...CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT CAN GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN A FEED OF SUB TROPICAL
MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TROPICAL STORM ODLIE IN A
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN WHILE LOW LEVELS REMAIN MOIST AS UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPS BEHIND THE FRONT. UPPER LIFT WILL BE WEAK BUT OVER KEEPING A
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT LOOKS REASONABLE.
AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
MIDWEEK...SUPPRESSING ANY PRECIP CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND INCREASING RAIN
CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S.

CLK

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

08/15




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