Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 271718
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1218 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HI-RES MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THAT BEING SAID, THESE SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF
THE TERMINALS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL
COME AFTER 9Z TOMORROW MORNING WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
ABUNDANT AT EACH TERMINAL. HAVE HINTED AT LOWER VISIBILITIES AT EACH
TERMINAL BUT KEPT THEM VFR FOR NOW.

&&

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 453 AM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014/

DISCUSSION...
OTHER THAN SOME PATCHY FOG PSBL EARLY THIS MORNING ACROSS THE W AND SW
TX PNHDL...GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROF PROGGED TO
EJECT NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS IN A SOMEWHAT NEGATIVELY
TILTED FASHION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM GETS CLOSER
MONDAY AFTERNOON...ISOLD TO SCT TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS WRN AND
CNTRL SECTIONS OF THE FCST AREA COURTESY OF THE ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROF...DAYTIME HEATING AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE. RETAINED SLGT CHC TO CHC POPS
FOR THIS AREA. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES ACROSS
THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. HAVE RAISED POPS CLOSER TO THE MEXMOS VALUES...
WITH A GRADIENT OF POPS IN THE GRIDS SUCH THAT THE CNTRL AND ERN OK
PNHDL HAS THE HIGHEST AND FAR SERN TX PNHDL THE LOWEST VALUES.

SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THIS FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL BE
LOSING ITS INFLUENCE ON THE FCST AREA TUE...WITH ONLY LINGERING SLGT
CHC POPS OVER THE FAR ERN ZONES TUE AND TUE NIGHT.

MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THIS MORNING WITH RESPECT TO NEXT FAST
MOVING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WHICH IS FCST TO AFFECT THE SRN AND
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS LATER WED INTO EARLY THURSDAY. BASED ON LATEST
MODELS...IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN
E AND N OF FCST AREA. HAVE RETAINED SLGT CHC POPS FOR WED NIGHT
ACROSS FAR ERN ZONES. THE CORRESPONDING SFC COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THRU THE TX AND OK PNHDLS LATE WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY. NO POPS AFTER
WED NIGHT.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/15





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