Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 131729
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 13 2014

.AVIATION...
ACTIVE WEATHER EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAIN
AVIATION CONCERNS FOR THE FIRST 6 HOURS WILL BE LOW CLOUDS WORKING
INTO KGUY, STRONG SHIFTING WINDS FROM THE NORTH AT KAMA, AND BLOWING
DUST AT ALL TERMINALS. FROM 00Z THROUGH 06Z THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP
WILL INCREASE AT THE TERMINALS. BEYOND 06Z, PRECIP WILL TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO A WINTRY MIX THEN TO ALL SNOW. WINDS WILL STILL BE
HOWLING OUT OF THE NORTH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KTS BY THIS TIME. AN AWW
WILL BE ISSUED FOR KAMA SHORTLY. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN CLEARING
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM 14Z TO 16Z TOMORROW BUT LOW CLOUDS AND
STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN CONCERN THROUGH THE END OF THIS
TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

UPDATE...
DID A QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR SO TODAY AS THE
STRONG COLD FRONT SURGING SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLES.
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY REACH THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 16Z TO 18Z TODAY...WITH FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY. OTHERWISE...NO OTHER CHANGES NEED AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 703 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

AVIATION...
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...MULTIPLE WEATHER ELEMENTS TO AFFECT THE TERMINAL
SITES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GREATEST IMPACTS EXPECTED AT KGUY
AND KDHT...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT AT KAMA ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
PRECIPITATION. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE TX AND OK PNHDLS
THIS MORNING WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS IN ITS WAKE. SOME BLOWING DUST
PSBL WITH THE WINDS. WINDS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED AVIATION WEATHER
WARNING CRITIERA AT KAMA. HOWEVER...MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS
IS TO OCCUR LATE IN THE FCST PERIOD SO HAVE HELD OFF ISSUANCE OF ONE
FOR THIS CYCLE. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO IMPACT THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT..AND WILL BRING A THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY AT KGUY AND KDHT. HAVE STARTED OUT THE
PRECIPITATION AS LIGHT RAIN AND THEN CHANGED OVER TO ALL SNOW AT KGUY
AND KDHT BY LATE TONIGHT THRU 12Z MONDAY. KEPT PRECIP AT KAMA A -RASN
MIX DURG THIS SAME TIME PERIOD...IF ANY OCCURS AT ALL. LOW CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING THE ABOVE AS WELL AS VSBYS AND CIGS...WITH AMENDMENTS PSBL.

ANDRADE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 428 AM CDT SUN APR 13 2014/

DISCUSSION...
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH INTO THE OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
PANHANDLES THIS MORNING. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MAY CREATE SOME
BLOWING DUST THIS AFTERNOON AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH AN EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURE AROUND 18Z
TODAY. ALTHOUGH CURRENT GRIDS FORECASTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR
CONVECTION TODAY WITH THE COLD FRONT...LATEST HRRR...TTU-WRF...RUC
AND TO SOME EXTENT THE NAM FORECASTING NO CONVECTION ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES TODAY. BACKED OFF ON THE POPS THIS MORNING TO MAINLY THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS BUT LEFT THE AFTERNOON POPS ALONE FOR NOW. WEATHER
AND POP GRIDS LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS ANY
LIQUID PRECIP WILL QUICKLY CHANGE TO POSSIBLY SLEET AND THEN SNOW
EARLY AND CONTINUE UNTIL ABOUT MID TO LATE MORNING MONDAY. STRONG
COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT PROMPTED A HARD FREEZE WARNING FOR THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL PANHANDLES TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...WITH A
FREEZE WARNING FOR THE EASTERN PANHANDLES. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE LOOKED RIGHT ON TRACK WITH THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS...1 TO 3 INCHES...LIKELY THERE. HOWEVER...1 TO 2
INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

FREEZING TEMPERATURES APPEAR LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
MORNING BUT DECIDED TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON ISSUING ANY FREEZE HIGHLIGHTS
DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS IN THE FIRST AND
SECOND PERIODS OF THE FORECAST. THIS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY
NEXT OR LATER SHIFT. UPPER TROUGH WHICH APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE
PANHANDLES BY LATE MONDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS AND CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z MONDAY. DOWNSLOPING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS RETURN AND
INCREASE BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MODELS BRINGING THIS COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FASTER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR WEDNESDAY EVENING.
COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS MUCH OF THIS WEEK DUE TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
SHAPING UP.

SCHNEIDER

FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY MARGINALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS DOWNSLOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS
AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FALL TO AROUND 10 TO 20
PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE PANHANDLES.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: DALLAM...HANSFORD...
     HARTLEY...OCHILTREE...SHERMAN.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COLLINGSWORTH...DONLEY...GRAY...HEMPHILL...
     LIPSCOMB...OCHILTREE...ROBERTS...WHEELER.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ARMSTRONG...CARSON...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HUTCHINSON...MOORE...OLDHAM...POTTER...
     RANDALL...SHERMAN.

OK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CDT
     MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.

     FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAVER.

     HARD FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/09




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