Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 221735
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1135 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.AVIATION...
18z TAF Cycle:

Clear skies are quickly spreading east with KGUY and KDHT already
under VFR conditions. KAMA and the eastern Panhandles are still
under a deck of MVFR cigs, and some patchy freezing drizzle can`t
be ruled out for the eastern Texas Panhandle. The MVFR cigs should
become VFR within the next hour at KAMA, with VFR conditions then
expected for the remainder of the period for all TAF sites. Can`t
completely rule out some shallow freezing fog development
overnight for the eastern Texas Panhandle, but not expecting this
to reach KAMA at this time. Winds will generally be out of the
south to southwest through the period at 10-15 knots, decreasing
overnight.

Ward

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1112 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

UPDATE...
Issued Winter Weather Advisory for far eastern Texas Panhandle
early this morning. This was done based on radar showing
widespread 30-40 dBz echoes in that area, with surface temperature
around 26-28 degrees F. A warm nose was also noted on latest
Bufkit soundings, which supported combination of sleet and
freezing rain. A strong mid level jet is now pushing into
Panhandles with best forcing/moisture shifting east into OK. As of
17z, some areas of freezing drizzle can`t be ruled out in the
eastern counties, but activity has decreased dramatically.
Locations from Wellington to Lipscomb picked up anywhere from 0.1
to 0.2 inches of ice this morning and overnight from combination
of sleet, freezing rain and freezing drizzle. Will allow the the
advisory to expire at noon, as no additional accumulation is
expected as clouds rapidly decrease from west to east through the
afternoon.

Ward

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Although still very dry at the surface across the Panhandles with
Td`s in the single digits, current satellite analysis illustrate
low level moisture currently in place across parts of the South
Plains and southeastern NM. As surface winds begin to shift to
southerly by 12Z, some of the hi-res model output, along with the
latest log-p interrogation shows some surface based moisture
advecting north into the region. In-conjunction with some weak but
noticeable low to mid level upglide and some good values of
omega, especially downstream of an upper level perturbation
moving northeast across the region later this morning, enough
ingredients are there to provide some patchy freezing drizzle
starting around or just after 12Z for portions of the southern TX
Panhandle, including Amarillo. This area will shift toward the
east and northeast toward the OK state line into the early
afternoon before we finally clear out toward early evening. With
the latest sounding profiles showing a pretty deep inversion, it
will take a while for temperatures to rebound, especially across
the eastern Panhandle where temperatures may struggle to reach 40
in some spots. For the rest of the region, stronger SW flow
toward the afternoon hours, especially as we begin to clear out
from west to east will result in more mixing with temperatures
advecting +7C to +9C 850-700 hPa into the region bringing high
temps into the lower 50s, which is still below average.

Otherwise, going forward into the remainder of the forecast
period will remain mostly dry. Perturbations in the mean 500 hPa
flow will either move north or east of the Panhandles region as
shown in the latest 00Z model and probabilistic data with a deep
trough in the west and ridge in the eastern CONUS. However, as the
rather persistent mid level anticyclonic feature over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico deamplifies and retrogrades toward the eastern
Mexico coastline, signs are showing a more deepening sinusoidal
pattern over the western CONUS which may introduce some chances of
precipitation going into the middle of next week. Of course being
about a week out, we will monitor and update as time gets closer.
Starting Friday through the remainder of the forecast period,
temperatures will be at or above average.

Meccariello

FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions are possible for the entire
Panhandles region on Saturday and for the western panhandles on
Sunday and Monday. Min RH values of 11-20% across the entire
region on Saturday with 15-20% min RH for western Panhandles on
Sunday and Monday. 20 ft. winds will also be quite gusty on
Saturday with winds of 15-20 kts shifting from southwesterly in
thew morning to northwesterly in the afternoon. Westerly to
northwesterly 20 ft. winds around 15 kts for the western
Panhandles will continue on Sunday and Monday. As a result, RFTI
values will be 2-3 on Saturday followed by 1 for western areas on
Sunday and Monday.

Meccariello

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for the following
     zones: Collingsworth...Donley...Hemphill...Lipscomb...
     Wheeler.

OK...None.

&&

$$

7/16


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