Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 141645
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1145 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected to stay through the 18Z TAF period.
Winds will be gusting up to 20 kts at times and will be out of the
south. A few clouds may delevop towards the evening hours around
23Z. An isolated shower/storm may be possible mainly for KDHT/KGUY
after 00Z for a short time but confidence is low.

TLH/KJS

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 650 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the 12Z TAF period. Winds mid
day will gust up to 20 kts at times out of the south with cloud
coverage expected to increase as well. An isolated shower/storm is
possible near KDHT/KGUY. Otherwise, conditions will improve for
all TAF sites past 06Z Friday as clouds begin to clear out.

Meccariello

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 232 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Upper level ridge of high pressure over the Panhandles will get
displaced to the south and east today. An increasing southwest flow
aloft will start to spread across the region by this afternoon. This
increasing flow may allow for more shower and thunderstorm activity
to move into the region from the mountains of New Mexico. The
showers and thunderstorms may have a chance to move all the way
across the Panhandles tonight as an upper level short wave trough
in the southwest flow aloft helps to keep the activity going
through the night.

A southwest flow aloft will prevail across the Panhandles through
the rest of the forecast as a large trough develops over the
western U.S. and a high builds across the eastern U.S.  There will
be a chance of daily showers and thunderstorms somewhere in the
Panhandles Friday through the end of this forecast. On Friday, a
surface trough will slide into the eastern Panhandles. This trough
is expected to be a focus for shower and thunderstorm development
in the afternoon and evening.

The surface trough will then tend to set up each afternoon in
eastern New Mexico and the southwest flow aloft should help to bring
the showers and thunderstorms this way.  There will be several minor
disturbances moving through the flow, so the timing of showers and
thunderstorms will need to be refined with time. However, the better
chance of rain should be with the daytime heating in the late
afternoon and evening each day.

The jury is still out in whether the Panhandles will be affected by
any tropical system that moves northward along the western Mexican
coast. The GFS models seems to the be the odd man out at this point
with bringing the remnants of this system toward the Panhandles next
week.

At any rate, tropical system or not, the southwest flow along with
it`s many minor disturbances and subtropical moisture should bring a
daily chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Temperatures will be above normal for the most part through this
forecast as the colder air remains across the northern
Rockies and Plains.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

36/11



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