Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 281738 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1138 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016

The surface pressure gradient will be tightest across the AMA TAF
site this afternoon, so expect gusty winds there. Winds will
gradually become more northwest and north late tonight as a cold
front moves through the region. VFR conditions should prevail.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 541 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

12z TAFs: VFR cigs/vsbys expected through period. Southwest winds at
KAMA will gradually shift to west/northwest with the strongest winds
expected during the late morning hours. Generally same idea with
KDHT except overall magnitude will be lower and winds at KGUY will
be decreasing through the day. Winds at all TAF sites will return to
the southwest by this evening. Not reflected in the TAFs is a wind
shift back to the north as a cold front swings through towards the
very end of the period. Also can`t rule out some low to mid level
clouds behind the front Tuesday morning.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 528 AM CST Mon Nov 28 2016/

A cold, broad wcntrl and central states upper level trough will
remain in place through Wednesday night. This will result in
generally dry weather and cooler temperatures. Short range models are
in very good agreement and were accepted.

Medium range models diverge significantly in all aspects with
respect to a developing storm system progged to dig into the
southwest states beginning Thursday night. Depending on which model
or models verify will make all the difference in the world as to what
type of weather...if any...our forecast area will have Friday and
Saturday. The 00Z ECMWF and 00Z UKMET are most similar in being most
progressive, not as far south, and wettest while the 00Z GFS is the
opposite, and finally the 00Z Canadian model is in the middle of the
pack. Given considerable model disagreement and attendant low
confidence in any one particular model, have decided to go with a
model consensus for Friday and Saturday pending better agreement.
This translates to slgt chc rain showers Friday across srn half of
fcst area, then chc pops for light rain and snow Friday night and
Saturday morning across sern TX Panhandle, with light snow possible
elwsewhere during this same time period. Then light rain possible
Saturday afternoon before the storm system loses its influence on
the area. Snowfall accumulations, if any, are highly uncertain and
questionable this far out in time until numerical weather models
begin to settle on a common solution.


Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across
western and southern sections of the Texas Panhandle due to 20 foot
winds of 15 to 20 mph with some higher gusts along with forecast
minimum relative humidity values between 15 and 20 percent. Neither
elevated nor critical fire weather conditions are anticipated from
Tuesday through the end of the week as minimum relative humidity
values are forecast to remain above 20 percent each day through



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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