Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 141544 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
944 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017

Strong enough lift for thunderstorms with approaching systems. Will
update all forecasts to reflect the threat of thunder as well as
freezing rain. Temperatures across southern Texas Panhandle will
likely remain at or below freezing until just after noon.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 540 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

AVIATION...12Z TAFs...LIFR to IFR conditions with CIG around 500
ft are present at KAMA and KDHT, while MVFR CIG around 1500 to 3500
ft are present at KGUY. Latest radar trends indicate
increasing coverage of rain or freezing rain, which is expected to
impact the terminals around 14/14Z. LIFR conditions will occur as
freezing rain or rain (dependent on temperature) moves over the
terminals AFT 14/14Z. Winds will be AOB 10 kts throughout the
forecast period.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 529 AM CST Sat Jan 14 2017/

A messy and complicated forecast continues to be the prevailing theme
across the OK and TX Panhandles today through Monday morning. The
strong and closed upper level low pressure system seen on water vapor
satellite imagery continues to dig swd as of this writing, and is
progged to be off the nrn Baja CA coast by 12Z this morning, then
dig a bit further southeast before making the eastward turn later
today to a projected position near the nrn Gulf of CA as seen in
latest 00Z models. Precipitation has been very slow to develop so
far, largely due to dry air that intruded the region Thursday behind
a cold front and persisted into Friday. Latest radar imagery and sfc
obs suggest light freezing rain has finally began to develop in srn
TX Panhandle as the upper level low pressure system begins to exert
its influence on the region. Expect this area of precipitation to
expand and move northward today.

For tonight, periods of light rain and light freezing rain will
continue as the upper level storm system heads east to near the NM
bootheel by 12Z Sunday. Current winter weather highlights issued
earlier remain plausible. As the upper level low gets closer to our
area, strong warm air advection will likely cause most precipitation
to turn to all rain Sunday afternoon with even a threat for tstms. This
storm system is progged to track across sern NM by 00Z Monday, then
to NW OK by 12Z Monday. This projected path is a bit further
southeast compared to previous model runs. Should this verify, then
more of the area may receive accumulating snows Sunday night as the
cold core of the upper level low moves across the area. Have
conservatively included this psblty in the grids for that time
period. Snowfall accumulations Sunday night and early Monday should
remain on the light side at this time, with overall highest snowfall
accumulation potential expected to be in the northwest zones.

Dry weather and moderating temperatures are foreseen from next
Tuesday through Friday. Medium range models suggest another storm
system may impact the srn high plains sometime next weekend. However,
they disagree on all important details, so have gone with a model
consensus solution for this fcst pckg pending better agreement.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth...Dallam...

OK...Ice Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for the following zones:

     Freezing Rain Advisory until noon CST Sunday for the following
     zones: Cimarron.


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