Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 160532 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1232 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2017

For the 06Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail at all terminal
sites through late Friday evening.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

Have started to remove counties from the Severe Thunderstorm
Watch. Diurnally driven convection should be reduced in areal
extent as we move towards sunset. A convergence of an outflow
boundary and retreating dryline has allowed for some recent
development, but this should be short lived. Will continue to
monitor trends and trim as needed.

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the 00Z TAF cycle. The
only concern will be for convection within the first 3 hours. A
convergence of boundaries is currently ongoing which could
initiate storms near the KAMA terminal. Do no think KAMA will be
impacted directly, but it could be within 5 miles if anything
developed. By 03Z at the latest, all convection will either end or
be well removed from the TAF locations.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 204 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2017/

Convective initiation is underway across the southern Texas
Panhandle. Latest visible imagery (and looking out the window)
shows a rapidly developing CU field with some decent vertical
growth. LAPS CAPE analysis shows 3000-3500 J/kg for these
developing storms to work with while deep layer shear being fairly
limited of 20-25kt. This continues to support the advertised
threats of large hail being the primary hazard with severe storms
today. There is also a damaging wind threat due to elevated cloud
bases and forecast inverted-v soundings. Once storms develop, we
do expect storms to be of the discrete variety and will quickly
move across the eastern Panhandles. CAMs show that convection
could exit the area as early at 7PM but some linger things until
9/10PM. The tornado threat is extremely low due to high cloud
bases and weak low level shear.

Friday and Saturday remain the warmest days of the week with
triple digits likely. With this forecast package, we will issue
heat advisories for both days. Friday will be limited to the
southwestern Texas Panhandle and the Palo Duro Canyon for high
temperatures of 105. On Saturday, a greater portion of the area
will be under a heat advisory as highs reach into the 105 to 110
degree range. These hot temperatures wont last long as we will see
a strong cold front sweep across the area late Saturday night
into Sunday morning. This front will limit high temperatures to
near normal for Sunday (80s).

As we move into next week we will see northwest flow aloft which
will keep the chance for off and on storms in the forecast. Have
kept chances low for now as it will depend on all the factors to
line up for storms to form.


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Armstrong...Carson...Dallam...Deaf Smith...

     Heat Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for the following zones: Deaf Smith...Oldham...Randall.

OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Saturday for the following
     zones: Texas.


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