Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 202326

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017

A cold front will slowly make its way southwest across the region
tonight. Some low clouds in the MVFR range may form at DHT and GUY
overnight. For now have only gone with a scattered 010 layer as
confidence is not very high on the clouds developing. Northeast
winds behind the front will gradually become more easterly
Tuesday afternoon. Outside of the lower clouds, skies should
remain VFR.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 350 PM CDT Mon Mar 20 2017/

Another very warm day across the Panhandles region today as our
area is sitting under a ridge of high pressure. With weak winds
aloft and a surface based downsloping southwest winds,
temperatures have warmed up nicely across the region along with
very dry air, high temperatures will once again today will range
from the upper 80s to mid 90s.

These temperatures well above normal will be short lived as a cold
front will be moving SW across the Panhandles from NE to SW during
the day on Tuesday into Wednesday morning. With weak winds aloft
under 15 kts still under the influence of the northern side of an
upper level ridge the latest 20/12Z model and numerical data
illustrates, the cold front will be slow to move across the
region. In fact, the cold front progression may stall as it
reaches the SW TX panhandle by Wednesday afternoon. This will
bring a temperature dichotomy across the region with high
temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday ranging from the mid 60s to
lower 70s across the northern and eastern Panhandles behind the
front and mid 70s to lower 80s out ahead of the front for the rest
of the region.

A weather system to watch will move through the Panhandles region
as we go into the day on Thursday which may produce some
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Latest 20/12z model and
probabilistic data shows an approaching southern stream jet streak
will move east across the U.S./Mexico border putting our region
in favorable upper level divergence and upper level dynamics
Thursday evening. In-conjunction with an approaching mid level
shortwave, this will bring steep mid level lapse rates into the
region as seen by some of the forecast soundings. A surface cold
front will eventually make its way through the region by Thursday
evening with a dryline set up possible across the TX/NM border
early Thursday afternoon. Some caveats does include limited
surface moisture which may be a factor to some thunderstorm
development. Although mid level moisture transport aloft looks
favorable, especially across the eastern Panhandles, the southeast
surface winds advecting in low level moisture may not set up
completely until late Thursday into Friday morning. Some of these
thunderstorms could produce some gusty winds and some hail as we
go into Thursday evening. Wrap around moisture for the departing
low pressure system will bring some additional chances of
precipitation across northern areas Friday morning as the low
pressure system moves east across north central Oklahoma. As
expected, we will continue to monitor and update the forecast as
we get closer to Thursday as this could perhaps bring some
beneficial rainfall across the Panhandles. Tranquil weather
conditions for next weekend are expected before another chance of
rain returns to the region by this time next week.



.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...



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