000
FXUS64 KAMA 112312 AAA
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
612 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

.AVIATION...
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 15 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH HIGHER GUSTS AT AMA.

THE WINDS WILL START TO TURN MORE TO THE WEST AT DHT AND GUY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THEN THEY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND A SURFACE
TROUGH BY MID MORNING ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS AT DHT AND GUY WILL THEN
START TO TURN MORE TO THE SOUTHEAST BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY. WINDS BEHIND THE TROUGH AT DHT AND GUY SHOULD STAY BELOW
15 KNOTS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO THE AMA TAF
SITE...SO EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE FORECAST THERE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013/

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...INCLUDING OUR FCST AREA...THROUGH FRIDAY. WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN THEME. THIS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE THEN SLIDES EWD SOMEWHAT LATER FRIDAY THRU SATURDAY...ALLOWING
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRAVERSE THE WRN PERIPHERY
OF THIS RIDGE BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY EVENING. MOST
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE NOW SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS
FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. SPREAD SLGT CHC POPS TO
ENCOMPASS ALL OF FCST AREA FOR SATURDAY...THEN SLGT CHC POPS FOR
ROUGHLY ERN HALF OF PNHDLS SATURDAY EVENING. IF GFS ENDS UP VERIFYING...
POPS MAY NEED BE INSERTED ACROSS SW PART OF FCST AREA LATER FRI
NIGHT. HOWEVER...IT IS THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS WITH THIS FEATURE. HAVE
GONE WITH A COMPROMISE ON TIMING AND RESTRICTED POPS TO THE SAT AND
SAT EVENING TIME PERIOD.

MODELS DISAGREE SOMEWHAT ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REDEVELOP FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS IS
CRITICAL AS TO WHETHER OR NOT PNHDLS WILL BE DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE
RIDGE WHICH WOULD MEAN A RETURN TO HOT AND DRY WEATHER...OR TO THE
NORTH OF IT...OR THE THE WEST OF IT WITH SOME IDEA OF NW FLOW AND
SOME THREAT OF PRECIPITATION. DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES...HAVE
RETAINED A DRY FCST AFTER SATURDAY EVENING FOR THIS FCST PCKG PENDING
BETTER AGREEMENT.

ANDRADE

FIRE WEATHER...
NEITHER ELEVATED NOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK DUE TO RECENT MODERATE TO HEAVY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS...GREEN UP...MINIMAL FUEL LOADING...AND
RELATIVELY MOIST SOILS AS SEEN BY ERC VALUES.

ANDRADE

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

15/05