Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 010934
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
434 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
PERSISTENT AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN CONTINUALLY RENEWED
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINED
MORE ZONAL ACROSS THE PANHANDLES...THOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS APPEAR TO SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
STARTING TO AMPLIFY OVER ARIZONA. AS THIS OCCURS...UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. AFTER THIS MORNING`S CONVECTION SHIFTS
EASTWARD AND TAPERS OFF...THE PANHANDLES SHOULD SEE A REPRIEVE BEFORE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER TODAY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
REMAIN SOUTHERLY ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE AREA...KEEPING AMPLE
SURFACE MOISTURE IN PLACE WITH PWAT VALUES STILL ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN QUITE HIGH...1.5 TO POSSIBLY 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
ZONES. A POSSIBLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WILL BE REMNANT CLOUD COVER
FROM MORNING ACTIVITY AND LACK OF LOW CLOUDS...POSSIBLY ALLOWING SOME
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO BE REALIZED. BETWEEN CONVECTION ARRIVING
VIA NORTHWEST FLOW AND POSSIBLE AFTERNOON CONVECTION...HAVE LEFT ALL
COUNTIES IN THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. ALL STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WITH HEAVY RAIN LIKELY...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR
FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD ON SUNDAY...AND
SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEEPENS NORTH OF THE PANHANDLES AND SHOULD REDUCE SURFACE
MOISTURE. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS STILL PLAUSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA...THOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS AND WIDESPREAD AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE AS LIKELY. AS THE WORKWEEK PROGRESSES...UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND CENTERS ITSELF
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...POSSIBLY FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. AS A RESULT...FORECAST TRENDS DRIER AFTER TUESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WARM UP AGAIN TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. EXACT TIMING OF
HOW QUICKLY THIS HAPPENS WILL RESULT IN SUBTLE CHANGES IN HOW LONG
APPRECIABLE POPS ARE KEPT OVER THE AREA.

ELSENHEIMER


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                83  67  90  68  92 /  40  40  20  20  20
BEAVER OK                  85  69  93  70  92 /  40  20  10  20  20
BOISE CITY OK              86  65  90  65  89 /  30  20  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  86  69  93  70  92 /  50  40  20  20  20
BOYS RANCH TX              88  68  93  68  94 /  30  40  20  20  20
CANYON TX                  85  67  92  68  93 /  40  40  20  20  20
CLARENDON TX               83  68  92  69  93 /  60  40  20  20  20
DALHART TX                 89  67  92  67  91 /  30  40  20  20  20
GUYMON OK                  87  68  92  69  92 /  40  30  10  20  20
HEREFORD TX                88  67  92  68  93 /  40  40  20  20  20
LIPSCOMB TX                84  69  93  71  92 /  50  40  20  20  20
PAMPA TX                   82  67  90  68  91 /  50  40  20  20  20
SHAMROCK TX                82  69  92  69  93 /  60  40  20  20  20
WELLINGTON TX              85  70  94  71  95 /  60  40  20  20  20

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ARMSTRONG...CARSON...COLLINGSWORTH...DALLAM...DEAF SMITH...
     DONLEY...GRAY...HANSFORD...HARTLEY...HEMPHILL...
     HUTCHINSON...LIPSCOMB...MOORE...OCHILTREE...OLDHAM...
     POTTER...RANDALL...ROBERTS...SHERMAN...WHEELER.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     BEAVER...CIMARRON...TEXAS.


&&

$$

14/18




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