Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 201759
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1259 PM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFs - Stubborn MVFR clouds and occasional ceilings lingering
around KAMA should slowly lift to VFR over the next few hours where
they should remain overnight. Northerly winds will become more
southeasterly by afternoon as well, an eventually become due south
late tomorrow morning.

Elsenheimer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 AM CDT SAT AUG 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Showers and thunderstorms have continued moving across the Panhandles
overnight in connection with the front and the upper level trough. As
the trough moves east and the front pushes further south into Texas,
the precip will move away also. A push of dry air in the mid levels
will keep the area dry for Sunday as ridging begins to build in. Mid
level heights will rise till Monday and then fall slightly as a
shortwave approaches the region. This shortwave will bring chances
for precip back to the area for Tuesday. Models start diverging from
Tuesday onward with the timing of the next upper level trough
passage and an associated cold front. For now, have gone with a model
blend and timed the front out for Wednesday. Expect precip ahead and
behind the Pacific front similar to the current frontal passage.
Storms that form from Monday through the end of the week are expected
to remain below severe levels as CAPE will be weak to moderate but
shear will be weak. The main threat will be localized flooding since
storms may be slow moving due to the weak flow.

Beat

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

18/29



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