Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 031944
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
244 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOPING BACK TO LAST EVENING SHOWED A MARKED
INCREASE IN MID-HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHWARD INTO NEW
MEXCIO FROM TROPICAL STORM KEVIN IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THESE
TRENDS ARE EVIDENT IN THE EL PASO SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO. TRACKING THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A COUPLE OF SUBTLE WAVES IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT MAY HAVE MINOR
INFLUENCE ON POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH BUT FOR THE MOST PART NO
SIGNIFICANT MOVEMENT OR DEEPENING IS EXPECTED. THIS STEADY-STATE
FEATURE WILL GENERALLY BE POSITIONED FROM WESTERN KANSAS THROUGH FAR
SOUTHEAST COLORADO INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE EVENING AND
THEN MAY REPOSITION SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST BY LATE TOMORROW.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS SURFACE TROUGH BENEATH MOIST MID LEVELS SHOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION ESPECIALLY
NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN IN NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO. FOR ANY OF THE
CONVECTION THAT MAKES IT INTO THE FORECAST AREA...IMPACTS SHOULD BE
MINIMAL GIVEN TYPICAL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SEEN IN THIS PATTERN
WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP A FAIRLY SIZABLE SURFACE MIXED
LAYER YIELDING WEAK INSTABILITY. GUSTY WINDS AND MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE LIKELY WITH THE MOST INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS.

3-6 KM THETA-E SHOWS THE MOISTURE PLUME WELL. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HOW THIS WILL EVOLVE AND SHOW THIS PLUME SHIFTING
EASTWARD SUNDAY AS UPPER RIDGE DEAMPLIFIES SLIGHTLY. THIS MAY
REFOCUS PRECIPITATION CHANCES FURTHER EAST ALTHOUGH PROBABILITIES
SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS FURTHER WEST INTO NEW
MEXICO WHICH WAS AT LEAST PARTIALLY DRIVEN BY TERRAIN INDUCED
CIRCULATIONS. AT THE VERY LEAST SOME FAIRLY EXTENSIVE MID UPPER
CLOUDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MOIST PLUME AND HAVE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER DURING THIS PERIOD.

BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE NEXT WEEK AS DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE WHICH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DEAMPLIFY AND RETROGRADE. A BLENDED APPROACH TO EXTENDED FORECAST
WAS ACCEPTED ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES IN DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE AND
ENSEMBLE SPREAD ARE STILL QUITE LARGE...ESPECIALLY FROM MID WEEK INTO
LATE WEEK. CONFIDENCE ON ANY ONE PERIOD HAVING HIGHER PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES THAN ANOTHER IS LOW BUT HAVE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ON TUESDAY SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE ARE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT ON
TIMING OF ONE OF THESE SHORTWAVES THEN. THEREAFTER CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW. ECMWF DEPICTS A SECOND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID WEEK. THIS FEATURE
IS ABSENT FROM THE GFS WHICH REMAINS MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND MORE ELONGATED
WITH UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. REGARDLESS OF WHICH
MODEL IS MORE ACCURATE...THE PATTERN SUPPORTS RETAINING AT LEAST LOW
PROBABILITIES OF PRECIPITATION.

BRB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                65  94  67  92  68 /   5   5   5   5  10
BEAVER OK                  69  98  71  97  71 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOISE CITY OK              62  94  65  92  64 /  20  10  10  20  20
BORGER TX                  69  97  71  95  72 /   5   5   5   5  10
BOYS RANCH TX              68  95  68  93  68 /  10  10  10  10  10
CANYON TX                  65  93  66  92  67 /  10   5   5  10   5
CLARENDON TX               68  94  68  94  67 /   5   0   5   5   5
DALHART TX                 62  94  67  93  66 /  10  10  10  10  20
GUYMON OK                  66  97  69  96  68 /  10  10  10  10  20
HEREFORD TX                66  93  66  91  67 /  10  10   5  10  10
LIPSCOMB TX                69  96  70  95  70 /   5   5   5   5   5
PAMPA TX                   67  93  69  92  69 /   5   5   5   5   5
SHAMROCK TX                67  95  69  95  68 /   5   0   0   5   5
WELLINGTON TX              67  96  70  96  69 /   5   0   5   0   5

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

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