000
FXUS64 KAMA 162006
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
306 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.SHORT TERM...
THE FOCUS REMAINS ON THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

THROUGH TONIGHT...COULD SEE AN INITIAL ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING DEVELOPING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...WITH SOME AREAS
STILL 5 F DEGREES BELOW THE CONVECTIVE TEMP...AND LIMITED CONFIDENCE
OF HIGHER TERRAIN STORMS MOVING INTO THE PANHANDLES...AM NOT CERTAIN
HOW WIDESPREAD THE COVERAGE WILL BE FOR THIS ROUND. STILL A HIGHER
CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO COME WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT
LATE TONIGHT. MANY OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW THIS MCS COULD
PRIMARILY STAY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION IN DEEPER
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...WAS HESITANT TO LOWER POPS IN THE AREA GIVEN A
STILL UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE EVEN LATE TONIGHT.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...ONE DIFFERENCE TOMORROW FROM THE LAST
FEW DAYS IS THAT IT MAY TAKE LONGER FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION TO
BEGIN IN A POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONSIDERABLY HIGHER CIN
VALUES THAN TODAY. OTHERWISE...THE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR ELEVATED
CONVECTION AFTER SUNSET AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES OVER THE
REGION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COULD SEE ONE MORE ROUND OF CONVECTION
WITH THE LAST IN THIS SERIES OF TROUGHS THAT SLIDES OVER THE RIDGE.
HOWEVER...BY THIS POINT THE RIDGE MAY BE BUILDING ENOUGH THAT THE
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE MAY INHIBIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. FOR
NOW...STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...
RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY...BUT CERTAINLY BY THE WEEKEND. THIS SHOULD LEAVE THE REGION
IN SOUTHWEST FLOW. UNDER THIS PATTERN...COULD SEE OFF AND ON RAIN
CHANCES WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST...AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
OF INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS.

JOHNSON
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
RECENT RAINS AND GREEN UP...COMBINED WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
ABOVE 20 PERCENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

JOHNSON
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                66  88  64  84  66 /  30  20  30  30  40
BEAVER OK                  68  89  66  87  67 /  60  10  30  30  40
BOISE CITY OK              63  88  62  83  63 /  40  20  40  30  40
BORGER TX                  67  91  69  86  70 /  40  20  30  30  40
BOYS RANCH TX              66  91  64  87  67 /  30  20  40  30  40
CANYON TX                  65  88  64  84  66 /  30  20  30  30  40
CLARENDON TX               68  89  66  85  69 /  40  20  30  30  40
DALHART TX                 62  89  62  84  64 /  30  20  40  30  40
GUYMON OK                  65  89  65  86  66 /  50   5  30  30  40
HEREFORD TX                65  89  63  85  63 /  30  20  40  30  40
LIPSCOMB TX                69  88  66  84  70 /  60  10  30  30  40
PAMPA TX                   65  89  64  82  66 /  50  20  30  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                69  90  67  84  69 /  50  20  30  30  40
WELLINGTON TX              71  92  69  86  69 /  40  20  30  30  40

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

14/16