Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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680
FXUS64 KAMA 051758
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1158 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH
SOME MVFR OR LOW END VFR CLOUDS COULD SNEAK INTO KDHT OR KGUY THIS
AFTERNOON. OUTSIDE OF THAT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND SHIFT TO
BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY ACROSS THE PANHANDLES.

ELSENHEIMER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1052 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

..MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATE...MORNING OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN
THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT WHICH ARE HIGHER THAN FORECASTED IN
THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A
COOLER AIR THAT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE MAY BE ABLE TO POP INTO THE
50S BEFORE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURE AND WIND FORECASTS WERE
UPDATED BASED UPON PRESENT TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS...WITH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST REMAINING ON TRACK.

BIEDA

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 AM CST FRI FEB 5 2016/

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES TODAY USHERING IN A
COLD FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS THAT ANY SNOW SHOULD REMAIN
WEST AND NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LEE SURFACE TROUGH FORECAST TO
DEVELOP BY SATURDAY WEST OF THE PANHANDLES ALLOWING FOR A SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW AND NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL CONDITIONS. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY RESULTING
IN BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER...NO PRECIP EXPECTED.
COOL SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS. COOL
SURFACE RIDGE TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OF THE PANHANDLES BY TUESDAY AS
SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. ABOVE NORMAL AND CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED NEXT
THURSDAY...HOWEVER A DRY NORTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW NEXT WEEK AS AN
UPPER HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN STATES SHOULD
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY.
HOWEVER...ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
LEE OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY WHICH WILL ALLOW THE 20 FOOT WINDS TO
BECOME DOWNSLOPING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH SPEEDS POSSIBLY REACHING
AS HIGH AS 15 MPH OR 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS. MINIMUM
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES SATURDAY ARE FORECAST TO FALL TO AROUND
15 TO 20 PERCENT ACROSS THIS AREA. SUNDAY THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK...NO ELEVATED OR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME.

SCHNEIDER

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

18/98



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