Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 122009
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
309 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.DISCUSSION...
TODAY EXPECT STORMS TO FORM ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN NEW
MEXICO/SOUTHERN COLORADO AND TRY TO WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE
PANHANDLES AGAIN TODAY. BUT AT THIS POINT DO NOT THINK THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE ORGANIZATION TO STAY TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH TO INVADE THE
PANHANDLES. THE REST OF TODAY INTO TOMORROW MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE
LAST LITTLE BIT OF DRY WEATHER BEFORE OUT PATTERN CHANGES
DRAMATICALLY HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK.

WITH A UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND  WITH
RIDGING OUT OVER SIN CITY, COMBINED WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LEAVES
US IN A NICE POSITION TO RECEIVE RAINFALL NEXT WEEK. STARTING ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA. CHANCE
THAT THE COLD FRONT PROVIDES ENOUGH LIFT TO SEE STORMS IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE FRONT, BUT STILL THINK BEST CHANCES ARE IN THE
NORTHWEST PANHANDLES.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...STORMS WILL BE IN THE AREA BUT THE QUESTION OF
WHERE EXACTLY THEY WILL FORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN. THINK SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WITH THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS IN THE BEST LOCATION TO RECEIVE THE
MOST COVERAGE.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE WHEN MOST LOCATIONS
HAVE THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE HEAVY RAIN JUST NORTH OF A
STATIONARY FRONT STALLED OUT ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME PWATS
WILL BE WELL OVER AN INCH AND OVER 1.5 INCHES IN SOME AREA. REALLY
THINK THIS IS THE TIME FRAME FOR THE HEAVIEST FOR STORMS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THIS RAINFALL COUPLED WITH THE
MOSTLY CLOUDY/OVERCAST SKIES WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPS TO ONLY REACH
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE AREA.

WE LOOK TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT STARTING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION SHUNTS OFF SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA. RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL POSSIBLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD
BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/LOCATION ARE LOW AS WHAT HAPPENS WITH THE
RAIN EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL IMPACT CHANCES LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                68  91  67  87  63 /   0  10  20  30  30
BEAVER OK                  69  97  69  89  62 /   0  20  30  40  40
BOISE CITY OK              66  88  66  86  61 /  10  30  40  50  40
BORGER TX                  71  95  71  90  66 /   0  20  30  30  40
BOYS RANCH TX              69  95  69  90  67 /   0  20  30  30  30
CANYON TX                  67  92  65  89  64 /   0  10  20  30  20
CLARENDON TX               69  95  70  89  64 /   0  10  20  20  30
DALHART TX                 65  91  65  88  62 /   5  20  30  40  30
GUYMON OK                  69  95  67  87  61 /   5  20  40  40  40
HEREFORD TX                65  91  64  89  65 /   0  10  20  30  20
LIPSCOMB TX                67  95  68  86  63 /   0  20  30  30  40
PAMPA TX                   68  93  68  87  63 /   0  10  20  30  40
SHAMROCK TX                68  97  70  89  64 /   0   5  10  20  30
WELLINGTON TX              68  99  71  93  66 /   0   5  10  20  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

09/19





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