Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 041720
AFDAMA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1220 PM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.AVIATION... /FOR THE 18Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT CAUSING A
GRADUAL SHIFT IN THE WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY OR SOUTHERLY. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE AT OR BELOW 10 KNOTS.

BRB

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016/

DISCUSSION...
WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE THE THEME OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 8
DEGREES WARMER TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS NEARS THE AREA. WARMING CONTINUES ON
THURSDAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 80S.
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO BE INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WHICH COUPLED WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES COULD LEAD TO ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON FRIDAY THE RIDGE
AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLES. WE SHOULD STILL BE ABLE
TO TOP OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AREA WIDE HOWEVER THIS FURTHER
EAST POSITION OF THE RIDGE AXIS COULD ALLOW EASTERN NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAIN CONVECTION SNEAK INTO THE WESTERN PANHANDLES DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE IT THROUGH THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER SO HAVE
WITHHELD MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS OUR NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
BETTER PART OF THE COMBINED PANHANDLES. A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY MIDDAY SATURDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY MONDAY/TUESDAY. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES ON SATURDAY, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
ANTICIPATED TO ROUND THE LOW AND PROVIDE SYNOPTIC LIFT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP. THERE DOES REMAIN SOME DIFFERENCES IN MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AS
TO THE TIMING OF THIS TROUGH AND THUS INITIATE CONVECTION AT
DIFFERENT TIMES. THE GFS AND NAM PRESENT THE FASTER TIMING OF THE
TROUGH TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
TIMEFRAME WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS CONVECTION TO START AROUND MIDDAY AND
THE CMC HOLDING OFF ON CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THE FASTER INITIATION TIMES DID SEEM TO
LACK SOME OF THE HIGHER VALUES OF INSTABILITY WHILE THE LATER
INITIATION TIMES HAD A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH THEY
GENERALLY FELL IN THE 500-1500 J/KG RANGE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR STARTS
OUT AROUND 30-40KT BEFORE INCREASING TO THE 50-60KT RANGE AS WE MOVE
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE EARLY ONSET OF CONVECTION THE MAIN
THREATS LOOK TO BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. AS WE MOVE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS WE COULD BE LOOKING AT LESS OF A WIND
THREAT WHILE HANGING ONTO THE CHANCE FOR HAIL. THIS ROUND OF
CONVECTION LOOKS TO COME TO AN END DURING THE EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT ON THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON SUNDAY DUE TO
DIFFERENT DRYLINE PLACEMENTS. THE FURTHER WEST PLACEMENT OF THE
DRYLINE IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING A ROUND OF PRECIP HAS WORKED WELL IN
THE PAST AS SOME OF THE MODELS HAVE DIFFICULTY CAPTURING  THE
RESIDUAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. AS A RESULT THE FURTHER WEST
PLACEMENT OF THE DRYLINE OPENS THE EASTERN PANHANDLES UP TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW MUCH BETTER
INSTABILITY CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE THAN SATURDAY BUT ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP ON THE DRYLINE SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

THE DRYSLOT OF THE SYSTEM SETS UP RESIDENCE OVER THE PANHANDLES FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TO KEEP THE AREA RELATIVELY PRECIPITATION FREE.
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING SHOULD BRING A WEAK COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA TO KNOCK TEMPERATURES DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR
TUESDAY. THE CLOSED LOW MOVES TOWARDS IOWA BY WEDNESDAY TO PLACE THE
PANHANDLES UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER
PART OF NEXT WEEK.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMARILLO TX                77  48  85  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
BEAVER OK                  80  47  86  54  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOISE CITY OK              75  44  84  49  83 /   0   0   0   0  10
BORGER TX                  79  51  86  55  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
BOYS RANCH TX              79  47  87  54  87 /   0   0   0   0  10
CANYON TX                  78  46  85  51  85 /   0   0   0   0   5
CLARENDON TX               79  50  83  52  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
DALHART TX                 76  45  84  49  85 /   0   0   0   0  10
GUYMON OK                  78  48  86  52  87 /   0   0   0   0   5
HEREFORD TX                78  47  86  52  86 /   0   0   0   0   5
LIPSCOMB TX                80  49  85  54  87 /   0   0   0   0   0
PAMPA TX                   77  49  84  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
SHAMROCK TX                80  50  82  53  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
WELLINGTON TX              81  50  83  53  86 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

&&

$$

17/6


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