Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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451
FXUS64 KAMA 221741 AAC
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1241 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017

.AVIATION...Expect VFR through the period outside ISO to SCT SHRA
and TSRA. Coverage is never high enough or organized enough to
introduce anything other than VC in TAFs during best chance
periods which will be late aftn through midnight. A weak boundary
will be in the area causing wind shift to the north for all sites
eventually before stalling just south of AMA. Presence of this
boundary will provide some chance of a rouge SHRA or TSTM even
through the night outside periods show in current TAFs.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1040 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2017/

UPDATE...
Morning SHRAs have dissipated for now, but anticipate
redevelopment of ISO/SCT storms with heating this afternoon.
Think best chance will actually be a bit east of where we showed
previously along H85-H7 theta-e ridge axis which extends from the
ern OK Panhandle SW through Canyon. This narrow moist tongue in
just east of a weak sfc trough that has turned winds NRLY across
the NW Panhandles and is also just on the east side of a subtle
upper low centered across the area within a weakness in the ridge.
NAM seems to have best handle on this and it develops best
convection just east of area where we saw this mornings activity.
Based on this, bumped POPs up to 30 along a narrow band across portions
of Armstrong and Gray County with 10-20 POPs most areas
otherwise. Hopefully the storms won`t disrupt any outdoor
activities at Palo Duro Canyon or other outdoor destinations
today. Lowered POPs to 10s in some of the west which is in the dry
sector seen on WV imagery. Still may have some mountain
convection approach from the west as well this evening. We are not
outlooked currently for any severe potential today, but not sure
we can completely rule out some brief pulse severe storm. Don`t
think these changes will have major impact on hot high temp
forecast and didn`t make any adjustments to those for now.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

88/88



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