Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 071734
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1134 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Cycle

Northerly winds 5 to 15 knots or less will increase slightly to
around 10 to 20 knots after about 20Z to 22Z today or so. The
northerly winds are expected to diminish at the Dalhart and Guymon
TAF sites after about 04Z to 08Z or so to around 5 to 10 knots or
less. IFR ceilings at the Amarillo TAF site may become VFR after 22Z
today...however IFR conditions will return once again by 02Z
Thursday. MVFR to VFR conditions at the Dalhart and Guymon TAF sites
are expected to become VFR or remain VFR after 23Z today to 02Z
Thursday. In addition...light freezing drizzle or snow flurries will
be possible mainly at the Guymon and Amarillo TAF sites...however
confidence in timing too low to mention in the TAF forecast package
although duration should be brief this afternoon and tonight.

Schneider

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 522 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected throughout the 12Z TAF period. A
southeasterly flow between 10 to 15 kts will be established for the
first few hours of the forecast period. Once we get to around 18Z, a
strong blast of cold air will move south. This will shift winds from
SE to due north with gusts over 30 kts at times. The main wind shift
boundary will be through KDHT/KGUY by 20Z and through KAMA by 23Z.
Winds will begin to calm down slightly with sustained winds still
between 15 to 20 kts. Winds will then further diminish after 06Z to
under 15 kts out of the north throughout the remainder of the TAF
period. Some low sct and bkn ceilings will work their way south
behind the cold air boundary blasting south across the TAF sites.
Cigs should remain at VFR levels throughout the forecast period.
Although not mentioned, some snow flurries are also possible with
best chances at KGUY.

Meccariello

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 AM CST Wed Dec 7 2016/

DISCUSSION...
Air mass which originated in the far northwest reaches of Canada
will spread southward across the panhandles today.  Some very light
freezing drizzle and flurries will be possible this morning across
the central and eastern Oklahoma Panhandle and the far northeast
Texas Panhandle initially behind the front. The cold air deepens
across the northern CWA this afternoon so any precip that falls
should be in the form of flurries by that time. Some brief periods
of flurries and very light freezing drizzle will be possible south
of the Canadian River during the evening hours tonight, but flurries
will be the main precip type after midnight as the cold air deepens
across the southern Texas Panhandle.

It should be noted that confidence in any precipitation falling at
all is low right now.  Very light precipitation just seems to get
squeezed out of these cold air masses as they move across the
panhandles.

Now, we are not looking at temperatures of 10 below during the day
and 40 below at night since this air mass has modified some on its
way south. But we are looking at temperatures in the single digits
and teens above zero tonight and in the 20s and 30s during the day
on Thursday.

Temperatures will then modify to near normal by Friday and then we
will likely be above normal for the rest of the forecast as storm
systems move to our north and the coldest air remains to our north
and northeast.

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

11/7


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