Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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FXUS64 KAMA 251803 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
103 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

For the 18Z TAFs, showers and tstms are forecast to redevelop across
the area later this afternoon through tonight. Have incorporated a
mention of either TSRA or VCTS at all terminal sites for late this
afternoon and tonight. A residual sfc boundary remaining across the
region will maintain winds from an easterly or northeasterly
direction for much of this fcst cycle.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 441 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

12Z Issuance...KAMA and KDHT are currently VFR. KGUY is IFR due to
low clouds. Expect these clouds to lift by 12Z and conditions to
improve to VFR. Thunderstorms are expected to affect KAMA after 05Z
and KDHT after 00Z. Conditions will likely deteriorate during the
storms. Confidence on timing of storms affecting KGUY was less, so
have left mention out of the taf at this time. Winds will remain
light and variable through the morning hours and then become more
southeasterly after 18Z and remain aob 10kts.


PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 358 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

With this forecast we say good-bye to the triple-digit temperatures
which have been observed over the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles (in
at least one or more observation sites) since July 9.  Relief can be
attributed to effects of outflow-enhanced cold front and expected
cloud cover.

The other good news is that good chances for rain remain in the
forecast for the next several days, owing to abundant low- and mid-
level moisture which has made its return.  Very weak flow aloft will
offer little in the way of dynamics, but nocturnal development of
low-level jet will provide support for thunderstorm development.
Presence of outflow boundaries will provide low-level focus for
development, with daily favored areas yet to be determined.  Forecast
soundings reveal tall skinny CAPEs which could support heavy rains.
Current forecast has pops in all sections all periods through
Saturday, with drying commencing Saturday night. 03


No elevated or critical fire weather conditions are expected for the
next seven days as relative humidity values remain well above 20
percent and wetting rains moisten fuels.  03


.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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