Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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000
FXUS64 KAMA 212106
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
406 PM CDT Thu Sep 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Abundant sunshine and westerly component to low-level winds have
allowed temperatures to rise into the 90 to 100 degree range
across the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles today.  Low-level
moisture remains confined to eastern sections ahead of dryline-
like feature where surface dewpoints have held into the 50s and
lower- to mid-60s.  Isolated thunderstorms will be possible this
afternoon and evening in these eastern sections, with strong to
marginally severe gusts possible. Any thunderstorms should
diminish rapidly with loss of insolation, as upper support remains
weak.

Models and ensembles in good agreement regarding longwave mid-
level trof over western CONUS for the next several days, with a
slow eastward translation.  This will result in strengthening
mid- and upper-level flow, which will lead to strong moist
southerly low-level flow.  The low-level jet is expected to
develop overnight for the next several days, with speeds of 30 to
55 knots nightly.  The influx of moisture will give us a
prolonged stretch of unsettled weather, with thunderstorms
becoming increasingly likely through the weekend.  The threat for
widespread severe weather will generally be low, but heavy and
repeated rains will likely lead to flooding concerns.

Thunderstorm chances on Friday and Friday night will be mainly
across the western half of the forecast area, where instability
will be maximized and stronger flow aloft will provide better
opportunities for vorticity advection.  Chances rise on Saturday
and Saturday night as the dynamics and moisture improve.  By
Sunday and Sunday night, higher pops become oriented over central
and eastern sections, with all areas having healthy pops.

By Monday, drier air expected to begin working into the northwest
half of the forecast area, with western section pops continuing to
be the lower.  The cold front associated with the dynamic system
expected to move into the area Monday and Monday night.  By
Tuesday, north and northeast post-frontal flow expected, but
chances for rain will continue due to expected isentropic lift.

Cockrell

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather concerns are expected for the Panhandles for the
next seven days.  Multiple opportunities for rain will exist
through Wednesday and relative humidities will remain well above
20 percent.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                64  88  65  81  62 /   5  10  20  40  60
Beaver OK                  70  93  70  87  66 /   5  10  20  30  30
Boise City OK              60  87  62  75  59 /   5  30  50  70  80
Borger TX                  70  91  69  84  65 /   5  10  20  40  50
Boys Ranch TX              66  89  66  82  62 /   5  20  40  60  70
Canyon TX                  64  88  65  82  63 /   5  10  30  50  60
Clarendon TX               66  88  67  85  65 /  20  10  10  20  30
Dalhart TX                 61  87  63  78  60 /   5  30  50  70  80
Guymon OK                  66  90  67  83  63 /   5  20  40  60  60
Hereford TX                63  86  64  80  62 /   5  20  30  50  60
Lipscomb TX                71  91  69  87  67 /  20   5  10  20  20
Pampa TX                   68  88  67  83  65 /  10  10  10  30  30
Shamrock TX                69  90  68  87  67 /  20   5   5  10  20
Wellington TX              69  91  69  89  68 /  20   5   5  10  20

&&

.AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
TX...None.
OK...None.

&&

$$

02/03


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